Sentences with phrase «uniform national swing»

Notable psephologists such as John Curtice have highlighted that the Copeland swing was bigger than the suggested uniform national swing, which indicates that a larger than anticipated number of Labour seats could turn Conservative blue based on the current public mood.

The answer is to abandon Uniform National Swing and to use a non-Uniform Regional Swing model instead.

The truth is this was the messiest general election in modern British history - uniform national swing went out of the window, with similar nearby seats regularly heading in opposite directions.

This would give the Conservatives a majority of 20, according to the UK Polling Report swing calculator (based on universal uniform national swing).

Under a uniform national swing, fighting seats on the current boundaries in a first - past - the - post electoral system, that would result in a landslide for Theresa May, according to the Electoral Calculus website.

When we look at the average Labour lead since 1997 and project forward a long term average to May 2010, the Conservatives ought to be around 12 percentage points ahead of Labour which, on a (fictional) uniform national swing, would translate into a sizeable outright majority.

Uniform National Swing is not a valid model as shown by the changes in chart R1.

Assuming a uniform national swing, Labour would on this basis win 270 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives 241 seats and the Liberal Democrats 108 seats.

As the results came in, the concept of «uniform national swing» in all the opinion polls gave way to a bewildering variety of swings.

This assumes a uniform national swing.

Assuming a uniform national swing, Labour would win 275 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives would win 245 seats, and the Liberal Democrats 99 seats.

In terms of seats, this would still make Labour the largest party (assuming a uniform national swing), though well short of an overall majority.

Taking the YouGov figures and assuming a uniform national swing, Labour would on this basis win 247 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives 239 seats and the Liberal Democrats 132 seats.

Labour is trailing on both measures in terms of vote share, but would still win most seats, assuming a uniform national swing.

Assuming a uniform national swing, the Conservatives would win 262 seats in the House of Commons, Labour would win 256 seats, and the Liberal Democrats 101 seats.

Even so, reproduced as a uniform national swing, Labour would still win most seats, with 265, though well short of an overall majority.

Assuming a uniform national swing, Labour would on this basis win 267 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives 255 seats and the Liberal Democrats 97 seats, all within a handful of seats of what is projected by the poll of polls.

If repeated on a uniform national swing, the latest figures would leave Labour as the single largest party in a hung parliament, 51 seats short of a majority.

This work can build on the experience of the 2010 target seats campaign, which delivered a net gain of 23 Tory seats over and above what would have been achieved with a uniform national swing.

This backs up the position stated in recent days by The Guardian's Tom Clark, Daniel Finkelstein of The Times and blogged elsewhere today by YouGov's Peter Kellner that the Conservatives will indeed do better than the uniform national swing would suggest - because there is indeed a bigger swing to the Tories in the battleground seats.

Election barometer The Political Forecasting Unit's «election barometer», designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives just one seat ahead of Labour, with both parties well short of an overall majority, assuming a uniform national swing.

If repeated on a uniform national swing at the next election, Electoral Calculus reports Labour and the Liberal Democrats would lose more than half their seats, and the Conservative majority would be 272.