Top 25 teams have been bad bets against
unranked opponents.
Top 5 teams get lots of public support and are expected to easily win against
unranked opponents.
Top 25 teams are expected to cover against
unranked opponents but their win rates aren't as great as many casual bettors would expect.
Top 25 teams in heavily bet games against
unranked opponents to start the season are 51 - 29 (63.8 %) ATS, +19.5 units since 2005.
Last week, four top - 10 teams lost and seven ranked teams lost to
unranked opponents.
Florida's chances are hurt by the remainder of their schedule against
unranked opponents Western Carolina and Florida State.
Casual bettors love taking ranked teams against
unranked opponents and, not surprisingly, early action has been all over the favorite.
Friday night brought maximum chaos in college football, with top - 10 teams Clemson and Washington State both suffering road losses to
unranked opponents.
Three
unranked opponents remained: an ideal path.
Jalen Hurts threw for a season - high 248 yards and two touchdowns and added 103 rushing yards and a score as Alabama won its 67th straight game over
an unranked opponent.
In the past, we have explained that public bettors tend to overvalue ranked teams — especially when they're facing
an unranked opponent.
How often has a top 10 team lost to
an unranked opponent and remained ranked in the top 10?
Following a loss to
an unranked opponent, ranked teams have gone 282-333-14 ATS in the first half of their next game.
Not exact matches
No. 2 Miami lost to 4 - 7 Pitt, the fourth time in a row that an
unranked Pitt has beaten a top - three
opponent.
Unranked teams have gone 27 - 19 ATS in NCAAF conference title games, including 10 - 2 ATS against ranked
opponents.
I chose that time frame because starting in 2010, the value of taking these
unranked teams against ranked
opponents started to dissipate.
When
unranked teams face off against Top - 25
opponents the strategy is clear, but what happens when two ranked teams do battle?
Although
unranked teams have done well against ranked
opponents, that advantage has clearly been decreasing over the past few seasons.
The table below displays how
unranked teams have fared against ranked
opponents based on the number of bets compared to the daily average.
Announcers will constantly use the term «upset» when an
unranked team defeats a ranked
opponent, even if the
unranked team closed as the favorite.
Since 2005,
unranked teams have gone 1,288 - 1,222 ATS (51.3 %) against ranked
opponents.
As I pointed out in the BAP report, ranked teams do much worse against conference
opponents because familiarity of a frequent
opponent's style of play and gameplan levels the playing field and favors
unranked teams or underdogs.
This was the first time since 2007 that an
unranked team was a favorite against a top - 5
opponent.
Top 25 teams after a loss, favored by a touchdown or more against
unranked conference
opponents: 85 -108-9 (44.0 %) ATS
As a 4 - vs - 4 team based shooter, when you come face to face with
opponents, it's possible to take them out with weaponry, but Splatoon's Turf War mode, the game's only
unranked mode, is largely about making a mess, and making more mess than your
opponent does.