The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is about to release its quarterly statement on monetary policy (SoMP), including
updated economic forecasts for...
On Wednesday, following two days of talks, the Fed will release
updated economic forecasts, a «dot plot» of the projected path of rates, and a policy statement at 2 p.m., all capped off by a press conference by Yellen at 2:30 p.m..
Analysts at TD Securities said they expected the statement and
updated economic forecasts from policymakers to take a hawkish tilt that emphasizes every meeting will be «live» for a possible hike.
Table 1 compares the November 2012
Update economic forecast for nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-- the applicable base for budgetary revenues - to the March 2012 Budget forecast.
The European Commission may take a similar view when
it updates its economic forecasts on Thursday.
The Bank of Canada will
update its economic forecasts in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report on Jan. 17, which will be accompanied by the latest interest rate decision and followed by a news conference in Ottawa with Poloz and senior deputy bank governor Carolyn Wilkins.
This would not preclude advice from the private sector forecasters, but the budget and fall
update economic forecasts would no longer be based on private sector averages.
Not exact matches
They will also
update their
economic and interest rate projections for 2018 and beyond, the first such
forecasts since the outlines of the tax overhaul became clear.
CNBC Rapid
Update will offer new measures of how much an
economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth
forecasts.
The short - term prospects for the deficit also look good; probably better than you
forecast last October in your
Economic and Fiscal
Update.
Table 1 compares the June 2011 Budget
economic forecast for nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), adjusted for prudence, to the November 2011
Update forecast.
The Bank of Canada
updates and explains its
economic forecasts on a quarterly basis.
Although PBO does not include the details of their
economic forecasts in their
Updates, they are available upon request.
The
economic forecast he uses for this
Update should be based on the «realistic» assumption that the two critical assumptions will not be fulfilled.
This
forecast was reduced by $ 1.3 billion to a deficit of $ 31.0 billion in the November 2011
Update of
Economic and Fiscal Projections and by a further $ 6.1 billion to a deficit of $ 24.9 billion in the March 2012 Budget.
The November 2008
Economic and Fiscal
Update forecast annual surpluses as far as the eye could see.
In a periodic
update of its
economic forecast, the Washington - based institution warned that the measures taken in Europe have not done enough to quiet markets and restore growth.
Although PBO surveys private sector economists on a regular basis, the
economic forecasts used for their
updates, since June 2011, are based on PBO's assessment of future
economic developments and not those of the private sector economists.
The
Update incorporates the October average private sector
economic forecasts and an increased «adjustment for risk» for 2011 - 12 to 2013 - 14, as well as an increase in employment insurance rates of only 5 cents (employee rate) for 2012, rather than the 10 cents set in legislation As a result, the balanced budget target is delayed from 2014 - 15 to 2016 - 17, prior to the inclusion of the Targeted Strategic and Operating Review Savings (now called «Deficit Reduction Action Plan Saving Target»).
Most forecasters
update their
forecasts on a quarterly basis, following the release of the Canadian
economic accounts by Statistics Canada (first quarter results published in May, second quarterly results in August, third quarter results in November and fourth quarter and preliminary estimate for year as a whole in February of the following year).
The use of the four private sector
forecasting organizations to prepare fiscal projections for the fall
update was discontinued with the September 2009 Update of Economic and Fiscal Projec
update was discontinued with the September 2009
Update of Economic and Fiscal Projec
Update of
Economic and Fiscal Projections.
The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) also uses the average of the private sector
economic forecasts for their fiscal
updates.
A better understanding of the budgetary revenue
forecast would be achieved if the Minister of Finance provided more details on the
economic forecast in his budgets and fiscal
updates.
However, the slower - than - expected
economic growth in 2013 and the accompanying lower level of nominal income in 2013 - 14 results in a «status quo» (before budget actions) deficit of $ 18.7 billion Subsequently, the status quo budgetary balance is actually lower that
forecast in the November 2012 November
Update.
However, as noted above, their
economic and fiscal
forecasts are based on the November 2012
Update projections.
The fiscal picture has improved slightly since the fall
economic update — this year's deficit is
forecast to be $ 25.4 billion, down slightly from the $ 27.8 billion expected last fall.
Given the timing for the release of these alternative budgets, we would have expected their
economic and fiscal
forecasts would have been
updated to reflect current
economic developments.
The Government has continued the practice, first adopted by the Liberals in 1996, of using the average of the private sector
economic forecasts for budget and fall
update planning purposes.
However, given the uncertainties caused by the financial crisis, the Harper Government introduced the «risk adjustment factor» in its October 2010
Update of
Economic and Fiscal Projections, whereby the average of the private sector economic forecasts for nominal GDP was adjusted downwards for fiscal planning p
Economic and Fiscal Projections, whereby the average of the private sector
economic forecasts for nominal GDP was adjusted downwards for fiscal planning p
economic forecasts for nominal GDP was adjusted downwards for fiscal planning purposes.
On balance, we do not believe that the November 2012
Update fiscal
forecast was credible and coupled with the slowdown in
economic growth in 2013, the possibility of a balanced budget for 2015 - 16 is seriously at risk, unless additional significant restraint measures are implemented.
Details on the
economic forecasts should be provided in the budgets and
updates.
However, in your
Update, you state «The Government will continue to evaluate
economic developments and risks to determine whether or not it would be appropriate to maintain this
forecast adjustment in the future.»
In his November 2012
Economic and Fiscal
Update, Mr. Flaherty
forecast that the deficit would not be eliminated until 2016 - 17, one year later than
forecast in his March 2012 Budget.
In the 2012 Budget, the Minister of Finance revised down the deficit
forecast for 2011 - 12, from $ 31.0 billion in the November 2011
Economic and Fiscal
Update to $ 24.9 billion, of which $ 3 billion was due to the elimination of the «adjustment for risk to revenues».
The net impact of the slightly more positive
economic forecast is to lower the deficit by $ 0.9 billion in 2010 - 11 from their November 2010
Update, primarily due to the impact of lower - than -
forecast interest rates on public debt charges.
As shown in Table 1, they
forecast lower deficits throughout the entire 2010 - 11 to 2014 - 15 period than those
forecast in the Minister of Finance's October 2010
Update of
Economic and Fiscal Projections.
The average of the private sector
forecasts forms the basis for the
economic assumptions used for fiscal planning purposes in the budget and fall
update.
The
Update incorporates the October 29, 2012 average of the private sector
economic forecasts.
In his latest
Economic and Fiscal
Update, the PBO is
forecasting deficits of about $ 4 billion a year to 2020 - 21.
As shown in Table 1, the
economic forecast is changed very little from that used in the October 2010
Update.
In his February
Economic and Fiscal
Update, Finance Minister Bill Morneau
forecast that total budgetary expenses would be $ 293.1 billion in 2015 - 16 and $ 304.5 billion in 2016 - 17.
Finally, on the heels of the World Bank revising global
economic growth down to 2.9 percent this year, the IMF has cut its own
forecast for 2016 to 3.4 percent in its latest quarterly
update.
Today's IMF
economic update further downgrades growth projections, including here in Canada where growth in 2012 is
forecast to be just 1.7 %, down from the IMF's September
forecast of 1.9 %.
CONTACT Ali Ahmad
[email protected] (202) 557 - 2727 Purchase Originations Now Projected to Top $ 800 Billion in Both 2015 and 2016 WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 22, 2015)- The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its
updated mortgage finance and
economic forecasts.
This means that the final budget outcome for 2008 - 09 would not have been fully incorporated into the fiscal
forecast until the September 2009
Update of
Economic and Fiscal Projections.
The Government should, once again, take full responsibility for the
economic and fiscal
forecasts presented in its budgets and
economic and fiscal
updates.
As a result, detailed analysis of the monthly results following about six months of data as published in the Fiscal Monitor, are used to
update the fiscal projections during the year, rather than basing adjustments solely on changes to the
economic forecast.
Probably the most remembered
forecast error in recent years will be in the November 2008
Economic and Fiscal
Update, where small surpluses were projected throughout the entire five - year
forecast period, even though the economy had already entered a recession.
In addition, the March 2016 Budget
forecasts were
updated twice during the course of the 2016 - 17 fiscal year — in the November 2016
Economic Update and again in the March 2017 Budget.
Currently the fall
Update and the Budget
economic forecasts are based on the average growth, inflation, interest rates and unemployment rate
forecasts of a select group of private sector
economic forecasters.