However, in a nutshell (see their paper for more, and the figure below, taken from that paper), what Brown and Caldeira did was to emphasize the contributions to temperature prediction of the subset of models which are the most skillful at predicting the present based
upon recent observations.
«It was an exciting thing to stumble
upon,» says astronomer and lead author Rok Roškar of the University of Washington, Seattle, who notes that
recent observations support the model's conclusion that radial migration of stars might be quite pervasive in the Milky Way.
There are, however, caveats: (1) multidecadal fluctuations in Arctic — subarctic climate and sea ice appear most pronounced in the Atlantic sector, such that the pan-Arctic signal may be substantially smaller [e.g., Polyakov et al., 2003; Mahajan et al., 2011]; (2) the sea - ice records synthesized here represent primarily the cold season (winter — spring), whereas the satellite record clearly shows losses primarily in summer, suggesting that other processes and feedback are important; (3)
observations show that while
recent sea - ice losses in winter are most pronounced in the Greenland and Barents Seas, the largest reductions in summer are remote from the Atlantic, e.g., Beaufort, Chukchi, and Siberian seas (National Snow and Ice Data Center, 2012, http://nsidc.org/Arcticseaicenews/); and (4) the
recent reductions in sea ice should not be considered merely the latest in a sequence of AMOrelated multidecadal fluctuations but rather the first one to be superposed
upon an anthropogenic GHG warming background signal that is emerging strongly in the Arctic [Kaufmann et al., 2009; Serreze et al., 2009].
In which case please point to a significant cluster of
recent studies (preferably, but not necessarily, based
upon observations) which support higher estimates of climate sensitivity.