Since ARGO measurements started in 2003 the first estimate in 2008 showed slight
upper ocean cooling; the corrected and extended estimate shows around 2 x10 ^ 22 Joules warming = around 0.02 C (0 - 700m)
The set of Comments and the original posting on Real Climate have advanced the discussion of the signficance and the issues associated with the observed recent
upper ocean cooling.
Natural climate fluctuations have combined to keep
the upper ocean cool, scientists report in an upcoming issue of Geophysical Research Letters.
Not exact matches
«The mounting evidence is coalescing around the idea that decades of stronger trade winds coincide with decades of stalls or even slight
cooling of global surface temperatures, as heat is apparently transferred from the atmosphere into the
upper ocean,» Linsley said.
After radiative
cooling, air subsiding from a warmer
upper troposphere may eventually slowly warm the
oceans.
Observations of
upper ocean heat show some short term
cooling but measurements to greater depths (down to 2000 metres) show a steady warming trend: However, the
ocean cooling myth does seem to be widespread so I'll shortly update this page to clarify the issue.
If we think of hurricanes as Stirling heat engines, then we realize that the two reservoirs are the mixed layer of the surface
ocean (1) and the
upper atmosphere (2); note that there is a general trend of stratospheric
cooling as well.
A team of scientists led by researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory modified the current formula to calculate Potential Intensity by including the effects of
upper -
ocean mixing, sea - surface
cooling, and salinity during a cyclone.
Josh and his colleagues published a paper entitled «Recent
cooling of the
upper ocean ``, but soon found out that the
cooling was due to problems in both the earlier XBT data and software problems in a group of North Atlantic Argo floats.
Second, physically there is absolutely no problem for wind changes to
cool the
upper ocean at the same time as they warm the deeper layers.
Given that the other important variables (sea surface temps, depth of the warm layer, and atmospheric moisture) are all predicted to increase, it seems hard to make the claim that tropical cyclones will be unchanged, just as it seemed unwise to claim that Lyman et al's «Recent
cooling of the
upper oceans» meant that climate models had fatal flaws.
Relative to the entire depth,
oceans are essentially both
cooled and warmed from above, but within the
upper layer of the
ocean, it is often the case that the
oceans are warmed from below and
cooled from above.
... The recent
cooling of the
upper ocean implies a decrease in the thermosteric component of sea level.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of sea - surface temperatures and
upper ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of
cooling is observed at the surface, although much less than the
cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr
cooling SST trend — but again, no actual data analysis of the SST trend is reported.
Even assuming that the dataset is comprehensive: Considering that the
upper -
ocean cooling is seen mainly at 30N and 30S, another explanation for this
cooling is increased
ocean — to — atmosphere heat transfer in these regions (possibly aided by hurricane - mixing of the
upper ocean layer, and advection of deeper cold water as a result).
In boreal spring, SST rises by 2 kelvin when heating of the
upper ocean by the atmosphere exceeds
cooling by mixing from below.
Since mid-2003 through the latest data that I have seen, there has been no annual average warming or
cooling in the
upper oceans.
In that optic, is the
cooling of the
upper Atmosphere sufficient to counterbalance the warming of the troposphere, or is it necessary to investigate variations in the
ocean temperature?
Mauritsen said the warming of the
upper ocean and the atmosphere during the summer through reduced
cooling around Europe results in the stronger transport of heat into the Arctic, which is actually «pristine» in general.
With biased profiles discarded, no significant warming or
cooling is observed in
upper -
ocean heat content between 2003 and 2006.
What is happening here is that the two (Hansen and Trenberth) whom you describe as «not, in fact, fanatics blinded by dogma» were surprised by the recent «lack of warming» (i.e. slight
cooling) of the atmosphere as well as the
upper ocean, despite CO2 increase to record levels, as this does not provide much support for the premise that human CO2 is driving our climate.
Cody, your explanation exactly states my premise: «But about the
cooling upper ocean, I took Stephen's comment to be referring to the fact that cyclones funtion as gigantic heat engines that draw heat from the
upper ocean, so perhaps the ultimate effect of highly active cyclone seasons is a
cooler SST.»
But about the
cooling upper ocean, I took Stephen's comment to be referring to the fact that cyclones funtion as gigantic heat engines that draw heat from the
upper ocean, so perhaps the ultimate effect of highly active cyclone seasons is a
cooler SST.
After a La Niña event the
upper ocean is relatively
cool, so it would absorb heat from the atmosphere, rather than emitting it to it.
For falsification we would need to observe events such as the mid latitude jets moving poleward during a
cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and
upper atmosphere all warming or
cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually negative Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar activity and a warming
ocean phase.
It is generally necessary that the
upper 100 — 150 m (330 — 490 ft) of
ocean water
cools to the freezing point for sea ice to form.
BBD wrote: «So why isn't the deep
ocean cooling as energy is transferred to the
upper ocean layer» ---------------------------------------- For the same reason as ice floats
So why isn't the deep
ocean cooling as energy is transferred to the
upper ocean layer?
That probably stemmed from the fact that only the
upper 700 metre layer data was available, and that seemed to show
ocean cooling - in contradiction to our understanding of Earth's energy imbalance.
The
upper figure shows changes in
ocean heat content since 1958, while the lower map shows
ocean heat content in 2017 relative to the average
ocean heat content between 1981 and 2010, with red areas showing warmer
ocean heat content than over the past few decades and blue areas showing
cooler.
My suspicion is that there is a bias in interpretation of XBT data to maintain the idea that the warming of the
upper ocean since 1976 is due to increased co2, and the rescaling of XBT data works to reduce the impact of the ARGO data, which shows a «slight
cooling» according to Craig Loehle and Josh WIllis (before his arm was twisted), and only a very slight increase according to Levitus 2010.
If you choose some subset of the data (southeast of Japan, Pacific
Ocean, upper 100 meters) you could probably «prove» the ocean is coo
Ocean,
upper 100 meters) you could probably «prove» the
ocean is coo
ocean is
cooling.
AGW warms the lower atmosphere and the
oceans, but it
cools the
upper atmosphere.
Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp
cooling events punctuating a long - term
ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent
upper -
ocean - warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper
ocean.
Since Solar Cycle began we have seen a
cooling and contracting of the
upper atmosphere,
cooling oceans and
cooling climate.
But that explanation is contradicted by a recent evaluation of Arctic
Ocean heat content (Wunsch and Heimbach 2014 discussed here) which reveals the
upper 700 meters of the Arctic
Ocean have been
cooling.
Except for some La Niña -
cooled regions of the tropical Pacific and a few other
cool spots, the
upper ocean held more heat than average in 2011 in the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, and Southern
Oceans.
And the current scientific consensus that the
upper 300 meters of the
oceans have been
cooling since 2003 bodes well for natural cycles prediction.13
One effect among many is to reduce the temperature gradient within the skin layer of the
ocean and hence reduce the rate of
cooling of the
upper mixed layer (the first few meters of which are warmed by the Sun) to the atmosphere and also, radiatively, through the atmospheric infrared window, directly to space.
Currents that move through the
upper ocean then dive down to depth may move some of the surface heat to the deeper waters, especially where the currents have dived not just from
cooling water (hot water would tend to go up, cold water would tend to go down) but because it is driven in «conveyor» systems which may run counter to expectations of where water should go when considering only local conditions, and especially, if the water is dropping because of an increase in salinity.
These measurements first showed slight
cooling of the
upper ocean, then (after some corrections to the raw data) slight warming, but it is still too early to say whether or not these measurements really mean anything.
Over the same period of time as the
upper ocean is supposed to have warmed by some 0.05 C (according to ARGO), the sea surface temperature (HADSST2) has
cooled by 0.063 C.
And if the current
cooling of our planet (both the atmosphere and the
upper ocean) continues for another few years despite continued increase of CO2 to new record levels, the premise of alarming AGW will have become a falsified hypothesis, and IPCC can fold up.
Before 2006, our warm salt subduction mechanism does not allow the Atlantic to
cool when its subpolar salinity was increasing, because poleward transport of warm salty water and increasing subpolar subduction are parts of the same mechanism of enhanced AMOC
upper -
ocean transport.
The anomalous air - sea interactions associated with this ridge resulted in reduced seasonal
cooling of the
upper ocean.
From 1963 to 1991, there were a series of volcanic eruptions which caused
cooling and hence contraction of the
upper ocean.
Heat does transfer from the warmer
upper part of the
ocean to the deeper
cooler part, not the other way around as you claim, but it's balanced by flows of cold water descending into the deep
ocean near the poles.
And they have been used to make a variety of predictions — including for example that with an enhanced greenhouse effect the
upper stratosphere will
cool while the troposphere warms, that nights will warm more rapidly than days, and more generally the Hadley Cells and dry subtropics will expand, the continental interiors dry out, storm tracks move northward, the tropopause rise, changes in
ocean circulation.
«The recent dramatic
cooling of the average heat content of the
upper oceans, and thus a significant negative radiative imbalance of the climate system for at least a two year period, that was mentioned in the Climate Science weblog posting of July 27, 2006, should be a wake - up call to the climate community that the focus on predictive modeling as the framework to communicate to policymakers on climate policy has serious issues as to its ability to accurately predict the behavior of the climate system.
Cool winds mix the
upper ocean, keeping more nutrients in the sunlight, where plankton can use them to grow and breed.