That's equivalent to $ 0.80 or a GBP 52.6 p Fair Value per share — offering 62 %
Upside Potential vs. the current GBP 32.5 p share price].
Equivalent to $ 0.552, or a GBP 35.3 p Fair Value per share — offering a 39 %
Upside Potential vs. the current GBP 25.5 p share price.
This offers 147 %
Upside Potential vs. the current EUR 0.38 share price.
This presents us with a 38 %
Upside Potential vs. the current Mkt Price of $ 9.57.
This definitely suggests a happy medium — concentration is good, but this inability to pick the winner is a great reminder that a greater selection of stocks may just yield more pleasant surprises... To put it another way, I've seen v little correlation between my rankings of
upside potential vs. the rankings of actual near - medium term performance.
This offers a revised 164 %
Upside Potential vs. the current GBP 2.25 p UNG share price.
Couple this with the underlying investment exposure, and I'm happy to peg Fair Value at a 1.0 Price / Book ultimately, which offers a 159 %
Upside Potential vs. the current market price.
Not exact matches
Given this favorable combination of Attractive
vs. Unattractive allocations relative to the XLI benchmark, JETS appears well positioned to capture
upside potential while minimizing downside risk.
It therefore trades at a colossal 60 % discount to estimated NAV, with an
Upside Potential of 151 %,
vs. today's price of GBP 3.22 p. I currently have a 5.1 % portfolio stake.
This offers an
Upside Potential of 159 %
vs. current EUR 0.24 market price.
But it was still priced at only $ 0.35 a share & a $ 7.2 m market cap,
vs. my $ 2.48 Fair Value estimate — offering a relatively low risk
Upside Potential of 609 %!
And I still prefer European equities: In my opinion, lower corporate margins, cheaper valuations, Europe's position (
vs. the US) in the economic cycle, and the ECB's huge & still untapped firepower (
vs. that of the Fed), all present a superior risk - reward proposition — in terms of market
upside, and in terms of
potential restructuring and M&A.
So, despite the huge share price rally, we still have an
Upside Potential of 196 %
vs. the offer price!
For each stock, that's an exercise in assessing
upside potential (i.e. current share price
vs. your latest estimate of intrinsic value), and then weighing that reward against the level & range of risk (s) involved.
However, this implies that Mkt Caps may be overstated publically, which from my perspective just applies a (conservative) reduction to the
Potential Upside I see in a stock
vs. my Fair Value — misleading, but not problematic.
Vs. today's close at $ 11.75, that offers a pretty hefty 140 %
Upside Potential.
Overall, this leaves TOT on a P / E of only 6.2, and implies very v minor amendments to my Fair Value Price Target, which now stands at EUR 0.912 per share, for an
Upside Potential of 103 %
vs. the current EUR 0.45 share price.
Of course, that's not intended to be an invitation to pay for growth at any price... but here we have a share price
vs. an intrinsic value that offers 45 %
upside potential, and also a decent margin of safety.
My Fair Value Price Target is therefore EUR 14.19 per share, for an
Upside Potential of 70 %
vs. the current EUR 8.35 share price.
Thus, holding on to HAWK shares the
upside looks to be 30 - 40 %
vs. the
potential downside of a total loss.
This target offers
Upside Potential of 168 %
vs. the current 2.67 p share price.
Tracking sector / market premiums will give you a good idea of remaining
potential upside,
vs. the risks involved.