Using Factors to Select Dividend Growth Stocks The reason that this article is a «bonus edition» in the Dividend Growth Stock of the Month series is that I am going to
use smart beta factors to select many of the stocks to cover in 2016.
Not exact matches
Most
smart beta products
use factors, or characteristics defined by the fund manager, to attempt to outperform their benchmark.
And that's the happy marriage of
smart beta and fixed income:
using factor based insights to potentially create better outcomes in fixed income portfolios in a cost effective and transparent way.
And that's the happy marriage of
smart beta and fixed income:
using factor based insights to potentially create better outcomes in fixed income portfolios in a cost effective and transparent way.
Among those who have invested in non-market-cap-weighted or
smart beta funds, four in five
use multi-
factor ETFs, three - quarters
use equal - weighted ETFs, 70 per cent
use minimum volatility ETFs and 56 per cent employ single -
factor ETFs.
To the roster of
smart beta strategies, at the request of some of the readers of the first article, we add a dividend - weighted strategy and a fundamentals - weighted low volatility strategy; both of these strategies command many billions in AUM.6 (Click here for a full description of the simulation methodology
used for
factors and
smart betas.)
Our findings are robust for both
factors and
smart beta strategies across horizons out to five years,
using both a simple price - to - book ratio and an aggregate valuation measure, in U.S., developed ex U.S., and emerging markets.
Almost all of the
factors and
smart beta strategies exhibit a negative relationship between starting valuation and subsequent performance whether we
use the aggregate measure or P / B to define relative valuation.9 Out of 192 tests shown here, not a single test has the «wrong» sign: in every case, the cheaper the
factor or strategy gets, relative to its historical average, the more likely it is to deliver positive performance.10 For most
factors and strategies (two - thirds of the 192 tests) the relationship holds with statistical significance for horizons ranging from one month to five years and
using both valuation measures (44 % of these results are significant at the 1 % level).
In this article, we present evidence that the relationship between current relative valuation and subsequent performance for both
factors and
smart beta strategies is robust over horizons shorter than five years and
using valuation measures other than price - to - book (P / B) ratio.
Using Morningstar's categorization to group active and passive funds, and keywords to form baskets of
factor and
smart beta funds, the authors successively calculate rates of return gross of fees, net of fees, after taxes but before liquidation, and after taxes post liquidation.
The results of our analysis are generally a bit stronger when the aggregate valuation measure is
used, but three of eight
factors (value blend, momentum, and investment) and two of eight
smart beta strategies (Fundamental Index and dividend index) show a stronger correlation when the P / B valuation measure is
used.11 The aggregate valuation measure is likely stronger because it captures differences in profitability that can be missed by P / B.
Martin Small, BlackRock's Head of US iShares, says: «
Smart beta ETFs are growing increasingly popular, as evidenced by their record flows in 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 with investors
using them to manage risk and obtain precise exposure to historically return driving
factors.
We
use the same method for other
factors and
smart beta strategies.
The established
factors used to evaluate the stocks comprising the ETF represent the greatest value of a
Smart Beta ETF.
For example, a single -
factor smart beta product may be
used as part of a completion strategy in order to lend more exposure to lower
beta stocks to an equity portfolio with a higher risk profile,» explains Mellon Capital.
This piece discusses both approaches, and highlights the middle ground that may be found by
using a
factor - based
smart beta approach.
«Lots of
smart beta, or
factor - based ETFs [exchange - traded funds], have been launched recently, but few strategies, in our opinion, seek to
use these products in a constructive way,» says Eric Biegeleisen, BCM's director of Quantitative Research and portfolio manager of the Paradigm strategies.