Further, since no - one appears to be able to show convincingly exactly why and how this divergence occurs, this taints the entire record — at least in terms of it's
use as a proxy for temperature.
Historical records of glacier length can be
used as a proxy for temperature.
The divergence problem itself is explained here [blogspot.com]- in short, tree - ring data used is
used as a proxy for temperature but data for North America «diverges» from other readings around the middle of the 20th century.
Wish he would explain the basis for
using them as proxies for temperature.
Although it is the longest instrumented series, CET is not very useful for scientific work and can not be
used as a proxy for temperature variations world - wide.
The tree ring data was
used as a proxy for temperature.
Not exact matches
Update:
as suggested by the academy in its 2006 report, Michael Mann and his colleagues have reconstructed northern hemisphere
temperatures for the past 2000 years
using a broader set of
proxies than was available
for the original study and updated measurements from the recent past.
That article discussed Eddy's
use of the tree - ring 14C record
as an inversely correlated
proxy indicator
for sunspot activity, but does not appear to be relevant to a discussion of tree - rings
as a
temperature proxy.
Van Oldenborgh
used both modern and early
temperature records,
as well
as sources like tree rings, which can act
as a
proxy for very old
temperatures, to observe Europe's
temperature records back to 1500 and determined that 2014 will almost certainly be the warmest year Europe has experienced during the past 500 years.
Species with larvae that are likely to be particularly exposed to sea surface warming (i.e., obligatory broadcast spawners and / or brooders) were regarded
as having lower tolerance to warming, and we
used evidence of past mass high
temperature mortality
as a
proxy for measuring adult colonies» tolerances.
It
uses Ammonium concentration from an ice core in tropical South America (the eastern Bolivian Andes)
as a
proxy for temperature.
Isotopic composition can therefore be
used as a
proxy for historical air
temperatures before the period
for which we have instrumental measurements.
For example, due to the lack of ocean data, secondary data is often used to infer what the ocean is doing — thus, the AMO analysis relies not on ocean temperature measurements, but rather on air pressure measurements as a proxy for ocean behavior — iffy at be
For example, due to the lack of ocean data, secondary data is often
used to infer what the ocean is doing — thus, the AMO analysis relies not on ocean
temperature measurements, but rather on air pressure measurements
as a
proxy for ocean behavior — iffy at be
for ocean behavior — iffy at best.
This would completely invalidate the
use of tree ring data
as proxies for past
temperature reconstruction.
The same holds
for the specific global mean EIV
temperature reconstruction
used in the present study
as shown in the graph below (interestingly, eliminating the
proxies in question actually makes the reconstruction overall slightly cooler prior to AD 1000, which —
as noted in the article — would actually bring the semi-empirical sea level estimate into closer agreement with the sea level reconstruction prior to AD 1000).
The SSTs
temperatures are
used here, with success over certain regions of the globe,
as a
proxy and cross-check
for cloud variability.»
The graph
uses American network evening news coverage
as a
proxy for broader news interest, so it's a sketch, akin to
using borehole
temperature or tree rings
as substitutes
for thermometers:
The unforced
temperature estimate is
used as a
proxy for what cumulative emissions should be given the current level of warming.
The authors conclude that minimum
temperatures should no longer be
used as a
proxy for global atmospheric warming.
I think that
using tree - rings
as a
proxy for temperature could be considered incorrect science.
For mush less academic reasons, I agree that tree rings are not good proxies for temperature, since tree rings are also used as proxies for precipitati
For mush less academic reasons, I agree that tree rings are not good
proxies for temperature, since tree rings are also used as proxies for precipitati
for temperature, since tree rings are also
used as proxies for precipitati
for precipitation.
By Steve McIntyre who hasn't come up with an explanation
for why his supposedly diabolical Bristlecone
proxies don't have any significant effect on
Temperature reconstructions
using the 1450
proxy network
as shown by Wahl and Ammann in their figure 5c.
The «hockey stick» describes a reconstruction of past
temperature over the past 1000 to 2000 years
using tree - rings, ice cores, coral and other records that act
as proxies for temperature (Mann 1999).
Using SW US drought
as a
proxy for global
temperature, we therefore must conclude that it is already warmer than at any time during the MWP.
Lofgren, B. M., T. S. Hunter, and J. Wilbarger, 2011: Effects of
using air
temperature as a
proxy for potential evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios of Great Lakes basin hydrology.
So, the thickness of the tree rings in each year could be
used as a
proxy for local summer
temperatures.
His position: • No evidence of increasing lake clarity
as a result of secchi measurements since 1946 • The interplay of stratification and plankton productivity are not «straightforward» • Challenges O'Reilly's assumption on the correlation of wind and productivity - the highest production is on the end of the lake with the lowest winds • A strong caution
using diatoms
as the productivity
proxy (it is one of two different lake modes) • No ability to link climate change to productivity changes • More productivity from river than allowed
for in Nature Geopscience article • Externally derived nutrients control productivity
for a quarter of the year • Strong indications of overfishing • No evidence of a climate and fishery production link • The current productivity of the lake is within the expected range • Doesn't challenge recent temp increase but cites
temperature records do not show a
temperature rise in the last century • Phytoplankton chlorophylla seems to have not materially changed from the 1970s to 1990s • Disputes O'Reilly's and Verbug's claims of increased warming and decreased productivity • Rejects Verburgs contention that changes in phytoplankton biomass (biovolume), in dissolved silica and in transparency support the idea of declining productivity.
But
for years prior to that, scientists can only infer
temperatures using what's called «
proxies,» such
as ice cores or tree rings, whose annual growth can be correlated with annual
temperature variations.
They looked at global
temperature anomalies — deviations from an average or standard
temperature —
for 73 sites distributed across the planet,
using fossils in sediments
as a
proxy for temperature.
It all seems to depend on whether you want to assume that
proxies which show a signal that shows a trend in the 20th century actually also show a good correlation with local
temperature at any other time, paired with the assumption that the measured global
temperature is indeed accurate enough to be
used as a training - set
for the procedure
I like
using CO2
as a
proxy for the
temperature a few months earlier.
Moreover,
as I have believed all along, there is just not enough of a scientific basis
for even attempting to
use tree rings
for temperature proxies.
As others have noted, the IPCC Team has gone absolutely feral about Salby's research and the most recent paper by Dr Roy Spencer, at the University of Alabama (On the Misdiagnosis of Surface
Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth's Radiant Energy Balance),
for one simple reason: both are based on empirical, undoctored satellite observations, which, depending on the measure required, now extend into the past by up to 32 years, i.e. long enough to begin evaluating real climate trends; whereas much of the Team's science in AR4 (2007) is based on primitive climate models generated from primitive and potentially unreliable land measurements and
proxies, which have been «filtered» to achieve certain artificial realities (There are other more scathing descriptions of this process I won't
use).
And to the extent that sea level might be
used as a
proxy for global
temperature, it would show the same
for the latter.
The difference over time of
temperature measured at a consistent location has much lower systematic error than the
use of that single location's
temperature as a
proxy for the overall
temperature of the region.
As I pointed out, lgl's use of the same method I developed for using TSI or SSN as a proxy for ocean heat content also fits Steinhilber's TSI reconstruction quite well to the Mann08 temperature reconstructio
As I pointed out, lgl's
use of the same method I developed
for using TSI or SSN
as a proxy for ocean heat content also fits Steinhilber's TSI reconstruction quite well to the Mann08 temperature reconstructio
as a
proxy for ocean heat content also fits Steinhilber's TSI reconstruction quite well to the Mann08
temperature reconstruction.
Mr McIntyre: Im sorry that this commenter's language was too intemperate... However, the
use of tree rings
as a
proxy for temperature, when one can not control
for the myriad of other factors that influence tree growth, brings into question the entire enterprise, no?
Now if he can show good evidence
for using the min
temperature differences
for windy and calm conditions
as a
proxy for the UHI effect and how he selected his weather stations, he might sway some skeptical minds.
Judith Curry is
using ENSO data
as a
proxy for PDO, and arguing that PDO is potentially a signficiant forcing
for global
temperatures.
The «sceptical» blogosphere had in fact been excercised
for much longer by
temperature records - the much - discussed hockey stick controversy, allegations that data and methods were being kept secret, the
use of
temperature proxies such
as tree - rings, and so on.
A number of criticisms may arise from this inference, such
as the realism of the LGM CMIP simulations, uncertainty in the
temperatures inferred from
proxies, and the
use of paleoclimates
as a surrogate
for global warming (differences in
temperature patterns, albedo feedback etc.).
The problem is compounded by the fact that sea surface
temperatures are
used as a
proxy for marine air
temperatures due to problems in the measurement of marine air
temperatures.
If only treeline trees can react to
temperature, then it becomes of paramount importance to establish that these trees have remained «the treeline trees»
for all the 2000 years period they are
used as temperature proxies.
Maybe there really isn't any fixed volume to the eartyh atmosphere; My ancient Radio - Physics training says that the ionosphere keeps moving up and down, in response to the sun's action; so I am not
used to thinking of the atmosphere
as being constant Volume; so how can pressure possibly be a
proxy for Temperature; well other than in the Michael Mann approximation of
proxy?
However, the
temperature anomoly is
used as a
proxy for this.
Sections 2 and 3 at the same link provide estimates of the timing and extent of the coming cooling based on the natural 60 and 1000 year periodicities in the
temperature data and
using the 10be and neutron count data
as the most useful
proxy for solar activity.
We can't measure the evaporation rate or rainfall pattern, but we are allowed to look at the number of tourists who stay in nearby hotels, some of whom state if they have fishermen or windsurfers staying, and so one can
use these
as proxies for sunlight / rainfall patterns (CO2 partitioning into
temperature dependent aquatic bodies).
For earlier times, we adopt Greenland temperature estimated as follows (33): For the period 128,700 B.P. to 340,000 B.P., this temperature was derived from a proxy based on Antarctic ice core methane data using the relation T = − 51.5 + 0.0802 [CH4 (ppb)-RSB- from a linear regression of Greenland temperature estimates on Antarctic methane for the period 150 B.P. to 122,400 B.P.. For the remaining period of 122,400 B.P. to 128,700 B.P., data from a variety of climate archives indicate that Greenland warming lags that of Antarctica, with rapid warming commencing around 128.5 ky B.P. in the northern North Atlantic and reaching full interglacial levels by about 127 ky B.P. (5
For earlier times, we adopt Greenland
temperature estimated
as follows (33):
For the period 128,700 B.P. to 340,000 B.P., this temperature was derived from a proxy based on Antarctic ice core methane data using the relation T = − 51.5 + 0.0802 [CH4 (ppb)-RSB- from a linear regression of Greenland temperature estimates on Antarctic methane for the period 150 B.P. to 122,400 B.P.. For the remaining period of 122,400 B.P. to 128,700 B.P., data from a variety of climate archives indicate that Greenland warming lags that of Antarctica, with rapid warming commencing around 128.5 ky B.P. in the northern North Atlantic and reaching full interglacial levels by about 127 ky B.P. (5
For the period 128,700 B.P. to 340,000 B.P., this
temperature was derived from a
proxy based on Antarctic ice core methane data
using the relation T = − 51.5 + 0.0802 [CH4 (ppb)-RSB- from a linear regression of Greenland
temperature estimates on Antarctic methane
for the period 150 B.P. to 122,400 B.P.. For the remaining period of 122,400 B.P. to 128,700 B.P., data from a variety of climate archives indicate that Greenland warming lags that of Antarctica, with rapid warming commencing around 128.5 ky B.P. in the northern North Atlantic and reaching full interglacial levels by about 127 ky B.P. (5
for the period 150 B.P. to 122,400 B.P..
For the remaining period of 122,400 B.P. to 128,700 B.P., data from a variety of climate archives indicate that Greenland warming lags that of Antarctica, with rapid warming commencing around 128.5 ky B.P. in the northern North Atlantic and reaching full interglacial levels by about 127 ky B.P. (5
For the remaining period of 122,400 B.P. to 128,700 B.P., data from a variety of climate archives indicate that Greenland warming lags that of Antarctica, with rapid warming commencing around 128.5 ky B.P. in the northern North Atlantic and reaching full interglacial levels by about 127 ky B.P. (51).
Ice core samples are
used as proxy indicators
for past global climate
temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
If Mann et al. had simply cobbled together all the
proxies available and presented their result
as a proposed reconstruction of paleo -
temperature, the validity of the reconstruction and the methods
used to make it would be the subject of everyday debate, and the generally low opinion of statisticians
for the work would perhaps have prompted the field to move to correct the deficiencies.