Published in the Journal of Climate, authors Richard Seager and Martin Hoerling cleverly
used climate models forced by sea surface temperatures to separate how much of the past century's North American droughts have been caused by ocean temperatures, natural variability, and humans.
In this study we consider the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion on Antarctic sea ice extent
using a climate model forced with observed stratospheric ozone depletion from 1979 to 2005.
Not exact matches
The team
used the new scheme in five ice sheet
models and
forced them with
climate warming conditions taken from two different
climate models.
The new findings of successful multi-year drought / fire predictions are based on a series of computer
modeling experiments,
using the state - of - the - art earth system
model, the most detailed data on current ocean temperature and salinity conditions, and the
climate responses to natural and human - linked radiative
forcing.
The researchers
used a
climate model, a so - called coupled ocean - atmosphere
model, which they
forced with the observed wind data of the last decades.
Indeed the estimate of aerosol
forcing used in the calculation of transient
climate response (TCR) in the paper does not come directly from climate models, but instead incorporates an adjustment to those models so that the forcing better matches the assessed estimates from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
climate response (TCR) in the paper does not come directly from
climate models, but instead incorporates an adjustment to those models so that the forcing better matches the assessed estimates from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
climate models, but instead incorporates an adjustment to those
models so that the
forcing better matches the assessed estimates from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
Climate Change (IPCC).
Model simulations of 20th century global warming typically
use actual observed amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, together with other human (for example chloroflorocarbons or CFCs) and natural (solar brightness variations, volcanic eruptions,...)
climate -
forcing factors.
As we explain in our glossary item, climatologists
use the concept of radiative
forcing and
climate sensitivity because it provides a very robust predictive tool for knowing what
model results will be, given a change of
forcing.
Pat argues that it is the general tendency of
climate models when
forced with exponentially increasing CO2 concentrations (as were the
models used in Dr. Covey's CMIP project) to produce a nearly linear temperature rise into the future.
This was accomplished
using a stochastic
climate model based on the concept that ocean temperature variability is a slow dynamical system, a red noise signal, generated by integrating stochastic atmospheric
forcing, or white noise71.
The differences between the «natural
forcing»
model predictions and measured global temperatures were
used to determine AGHG
forcing functions for their final
climate prediction
model.
Note that the old GISS
model had a
climate sensitivity that was a little higher (4.2 ºC for a doubling of CO2) than the best estimate (~ 3ºC) and as stated in previous years, the actual
forcings that occurred are not the same as those
used in the different scenarios.
Methods: To understand the effects of economic
forces from
climate policy on terrestrial carbon and land
use changes, the researchers
used the MiniCAM, an integrated assessment
model developed by the PNNL team over the last two decades, to compare different scenarios.
However, in view of the fact that cloud feedbacks are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in
climate sensitivity, the fact that the energy balance
model used by Schmittner et al can not compute changes in cloud radiative
forcing is particularly serious.
The figure below shows the lower stratospheric temperature results from
climate models using both all
forcings and natural
forcings only from 1880 to 2012.
Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific
climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by
model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by
models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration
forcing.
Wigley et al. (1997) pointed out that uncertainties in
forcing and response made it impossible to
use observed global temperature changes to constrain ECS more tightly than the range explored by
climate models at the time (1.5 °C to 4.5 °C), and particularly the upper end of the range, a conclusion confirmed by subsequent studies.
«[B] y making
use of 21 CMIP5 coupled
climate models, we study the contribution of external
forcing to the Pacific Ocean regional sea level variability over 1993 — 2013, and show that according to
climate models, externally
forced and thereby the anthropogenic sea level fingerprint on regional sea level trends in the tropical Pacific is still too small to be observable by satellite altimetry.»
Another approach
uses the response of
climate models, most often simple climate models or Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al.,
models, most often simple
climate models or Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al.,
models or Earth System
Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al.,
Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of
forcings and
climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al., 2006).
M2009
use a simplified carbon cycle and
climate model to make a large ensemble of simulations in which principal uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative
forcings, and
climate response are allowed to vary, thus yielding a probability distribution for global warming as a function of time throughout the 21st century.
«We
use a massive ensemble of the Bern2.5 D
climate model of intermediate complexity, driven by bottom - up estimates of historic radiative
forcing F, and constrained by a set of observations of the surface warming T since 1850 and heat uptake Q since the 1950s... Between 1850 and 2010, the
climate system accumulated a total net
forcing energy of 140 x 1022 J with a 5 - 95 % uncertainty range of 95 - 197 x 1022 J, corresponding to an average net radiative
forcing of roughly 0.54 (0.36 - 0.76) Wm - 2.»
Several reconstructions are available for the last two millennia and have been
used to
force climate models (Section 6.6.3).
Response: < / b > von Storch et al purport to test statistical methods
used to reconstruct past
climate patterns from «noisy» proxy data by constructing false proxy records («pseudoproxy» records) based on adding noise to
model gridbox temperature series taken from a
climate simulation
forced with estimated past radiative
forcing changes.
Using models to distinguish between the
forcing histories is thus likely to require a tighter focus on regional changes, or in
climate patterns, more than the just the mean temperature.
That understanding will be advanced by new and more extensive data collection efforts, improvements to methods
used to synthesise that data, and more extensive and collaborative
use of
climate model simulations over this period — both to understand the
forcing / response of the
climate, but also to serve as testbed for the various reconstruction methodologies.
And finally, the CMIP5
climate models used values of aerosol
forcing that are now thought to be far too large.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant
use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the
climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal
climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both
climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the
climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative
forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval
Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the
climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific
climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by
model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by
models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration
forcing.
Some of them are optimal fingerprint detection studies (estimating the magnitude of fingerprints for different external
forcing factors in observations, and determining how likely such patterns could have occurred in observations by chance, and how likely they could be confused with
climate response to other influences,
using a statistically optimal metric), some of them
use simpler methods, such as comparisons between data and
climate model simulations with and without greenhouse gas increases / anthropogenic
forcing, and some are even based only on observations.
We
used it heavily as part of a Global
Climate Processes course at UW - Madison for later undergrad and grad students, so it has a good deal of flexibility in what you can test (though the
model blows up for extreme
forcings like snowball Earth, I
used CO2 at about 140 ppm and couldn't get much lower than that).
As a check of this, one could comparing the
climate model simulations of temperature change
using the historical
forcing runs with the temperature change produced by the same
models under CO2 - only
forcing runs * at times of equivalent total
forcing change *.
Result: NS 2) «In reviewing the results, the IPCC report concluded: «No
climate model using natural
forcings [i.e., natural warming factors] alone has reproduced the observed global warming trend in the second half of the twentieth century.
But questions remained concerning the degree of decadal variability, the length of the record and the balance in the
models between aerosol
forcing and
climate sensitivity (which can't really be disentangled
using this measure).
As we explain in our glossary item, climatologists
use the concept of radiative
forcing and
climate sensitivity because it provides a very robust predictive tool for knowing what
model results will be, given a change of
forcing.
A detailed reanalysis is presented of a «Bayesian»
climate parameter study (Forest et al., 2006) that estimates
climate sensitivity (ECS) jointly with effective ocean diffusivity and aerosol
forcing,
using optimal fingerprints to compare multi-decadal observations with simulations by the MIT 2D
climate model at varying settings of the three
climate parameters.
I'm not sure whether statistical trend
models would be sufficient, and in order to examine the «residuals» (the data after the trends have been removed), one really needs to
use a fully - flegded
climate model with all important
forcings and feedback processes accounted for.
While the definition of a
forcing may appear a little arbitrary, the reason why radiative
forcing is
used is because it (conveniently) gives quite good predictions of what happens in
models to the global mean temperature once the
climate system has fully responded to the change.
In fact, the logarithmic nature of the
climate forcing due to CO2 is built into the radiative transfer
used in all IPCC
climate models, and has been taken into account in
climate models at least since the late 1950's.
von Storch et al purport to test statistical methods
used to reconstruct past
climate patterns from «noisy» proxy data by constructing false proxy records («pseudoproxy» records) based on adding noise to
model gridbox temperature series taken from a
climate simulation
forced with estimated past radiative
forcing changes.
It is also robust to the
use of different
climate models, different methods for estimating the responses to external
forcing and variations in the analysis technique.
Using the business - as - usual scenario for GHG radiative
forcing (RCP8.5) and their novel estimate of Earth's warm - phase
climate sensitivity the authors find that the resulting warming during the 21st century overlaps with the upper range of the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)
climate simulations.
Comparing different general circulation
climate models these researchers find it is actually only the (often -
used) Hadley Centre
model that
forces vegetation
models to a biome switch:
At least with a
model like the MIT one
used in Forest 2006 one can (if the descriptions of it are correct) set the key
climate sensitivity, effective ocean diffusivity and aerosol
forcing levels independently and with some confidence (I'm not the person to ask how much) that the simulated results reflect those settings.
This graph shows the
forcings (CO2, and other stuff)
used by Hansen in the
model runs for each of his three future scenarios, plotted alongside the actual
climate forcings that were observed.
Due to the important role of ozone in driving temperature changes in the stratosphere as well as radiative
forcing of surface
climate, several different groups have provided databases characterizing the time - varying concentrations of this key gas that can be
used to
force global
climate change simulations (particularly for those
models that do not calculate ozone from photochemical principles).
Given the huge sums of money involved in funding
climate research and the even larger sums being spent on the assumption that it gives us good guidance for practical decisions, it may be time for some very large experimental chambers to be constructed to test the presumptions of the device of
using forcings as an tractable way of including changes in atmospheric composition in
climate models.
There should be support for things that will better define
climate response to
forcing, like better quality aerosol data and better cloud data, but much less for duplicative
modeling efforts, studies that
use wildly uncertain
models to make wildly uncertain predictions, and silly chicken - little scare - story studies of utter doom.
The scientific focus is on better understanding of
climate variability and
climate trends
using paleo (past)-
climate data, instrumental data, and numerical
models and theory to assess the importance of internal and external
forcing of past, present and future
climate.
If only GHG
forcing is
used, without aerosols, the surface temperature in the last decade or so is about 0.3 - 0.4 C higher than observations; adding in aerosols has a cooling effect of about 0.3 - 0.4 C (and so cancelling out a portion of the GHG warming), providing a fairly good match between the
climate model simulations and the observations.
Since
climate models did not treat either CO2 or solar effects in a simple linear way, the
models underestimated the total solar effects by a factor of six (
using a
climate forcing multiplier).