Sentences with phrase «using uncertainty analysis»

Still important are this team's efforts (using uncertainty analysis) to underestimate amounts of CO2 and even CH4 (methane) that are released.

Not exact matches

Uncertainty analysis of signal deconvolution using a measured instrument response function

In addition, we undertook a series of sensitivity analyses to explore the implications of uncertainty surrounding key drivers of cost in intrapartum care and the variables for which there was the most uncertainty surrounding the resource use parameters.

Using a representative sample of 20 different methods for predicting extreme sea levels the researchers focused intensely on the measures of uncertainty that accompany any prediction, but that are particularly vexing in the analysis of extremes.

The paper is a technical analysis of the uncertainties involved in computer modeling studies that use the amount of phosphorus entering Lake Erie in the spring to predict the size of late - summer cyanobacteria blooms, which have grown larger since the mid-1990s.

Despite several new analyses with improved cross-calibration of the 13 instruments on different satellites used since 1979 and compensation for changes in observing time and satellite altitude, some uncertainties remain in trends.

The need to address uncertainties applies to other areas the analysis as well, and we urge you to evaluate the increasing use of nitrogen fertilizers and herbicides associated with greater biofuel production.

However, one of the panel's reservations was that ``... a statistical method used in the 1999 study was not the best and that some uncertainties in the work «have been underestimated,»...» The panel concluded «Based on the analyses presented in the original papers by Mann et al. and this newer supporting evidence, the committee finds it plausible that the Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period over the preceding millennium.

Our Research Team eliminates these uncertainties for you and offers best - in - class research reports using stock technical analysis that can charge up your trading activities.

There are limitations in using a Monte Carlo simulation, including the analysis is only as good as the assumptions, and despite modeling for a range of uncertainties in the future, it does not eliminate uncertainty.

If she accepts that attribution is amenable to quantitative analysis using some kind of model (doesn't have to be a GCM), I don't get why she doesn't accept that the numbers are going to be different for different time periods and have varying degrees of uncertainty depending on how good the forcing data is and what other factors can be brought in.

The two agencies use slightly different methods, so they have different readings for the difference between 2014 and the previous warmest year, 2010, with N.O.A.A. putting it at 0.07 degrees Fahrenheit (0.04 degrees Celsius), while NASA got 0.036 degrees (0.02 Celsius)-- which this analysis says is well «within uncertainty of measurement.»

Most notably, in a global study Wahl et al (2017) considered both extreme value analysis and numerical models that were used to simulate storm surges at coastline stretches where no observations exist to quantify ESL and their uncertainties.

Forecasting building energy demand under uncertainty using Gaussian process regression: Feature selection, baseline prediction, parametric analysis and a web - based tool B Yan, X Li, W Shi, X Zhang and A Malkawi 15th Conf.

His research focuses on the estimation of the «social cost of carbon,» including the proper discount rate to be used in cost - benefit analyses and the implications of structural uncertainty for policy solutions.

Also, as to this: «Note, my weights were not determined using any fancy analysis, but integrate my sense of uncertainty in CO2 sensitivity, model uncertainties, and particularly the wild card that is natural variability.»

Thus, even with the higher resolution analyses of terrain and land use in the regional domain, the errors and uncertainty from the larger model still persist, rendering the added simulated spatial details inaccurate.

Note, my weights were not determined using any fancy analysis, but integrate my sense of uncertainty in CO2 sensitivity, model uncertainties, and particularly the wild card that is natural variability.

The first conclusion is that the total uncertainty is larger than that presented in either analysis unless we really have valid reasons to use a specific prior.

I would say that this analysis of the apparently large uncertainties created by TOBS errors can not be used either to prove or disprove (C) AGW or any other theory.

The use of even more recently computer - reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available.

We applied the same method used in the observational analysis on general circulation model data to decrease the statistical uncertainty at the expense of an increased systematic uncertainty.

«The language of denial: Text analysis reveals differences in language use between climate change proponents and skeptics» «Comment on «Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster» by J. A. Curry and P. J. Webster» «Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on consistent treatment of uncertainties»

Results of climate policy analysis under deep uncertainty with imprecise probabilities (Kriegler, 2005; Kriegler et al. 2006) are consistent with the previous findings using classical models.

I use Taleb's ideas heavily and they should be part of any uncertainty analysis toolbox.

and «no data or computer code appears to be archived in relation to the paper» and «the sensitivity of Shindell's TCR estimate to the aerosol forcing bias adjustment is such that the true uncertainty of Shindell's TCR range must be huge — so large as to make his estimate worthless» and the seemingly arbitrary to cherry picked climate models used in Shindell's analysis.

No such complete meta - data are available, so in this analysis the same value for urbanisation uncertainty is used as in the previous analysis [Folland et al., GRL 2001]; that is, a 1 sigma value of 0.0055 deg C / decade, starting in 1900... The same value is used over the whole land surface, and it is one - sided: recent temperatures may be too high due to urbanisation, but they will not be too low.

After all, his (flawed and already discredited before he was in high school) analysis can be used to claim «uncertainty».

As I see it from my analyses the questions remaining to be asked about the temperature instrumental record involve how well we capture and understand the uncertainty involved in adjusting temperatures, and further knowing the limitations of those methods currently being used.

The Project uses an Ensemble Filter data assimilation method which directly yields each six - hourly analysis as the most likely state of the global atmosphere, and also estimates uncertainty in that analysis.

«The assessment is supported additionally by a complementary analysis in which the parameters of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) were constrained using observations of near - surface temperature and ocean heat content, as well as prior information on the magnitudes of forcings, and which concluded that GHGs have caused 0.6 °C to 1.1 °C (5 to 95 % uncertainty) warming since the mid-20th century (Huber and Knutti, 2011); an analysis by Wigley and Santer (2013), who used an energy balance model and RF and climate sensitivity estimates from AR4, and they concluded that there was about a 93 % chance that GHGs caused a warming greater than observed over the 1950 — 2005 period; and earlier detection and attribution studies assessed in the AR4 (Hegerl et al., 2007b).»

Mann then asserted that MBH98 had provided «provided detailed calibration and verification statistics that establish the skill in our reconstruction» together with uncertainties calculated using «rigorous analysis of the calibration and cross-validation residuals».

Weitzman uses that to argue that climate change violates Raiffa's axioms on rational decisions under uncertainty — that is, cost - benefit analysis is inapplicable.

Structural uncertainties arise from an incomplete understanding of the processes that control particular values or results, for example, when the conceptual framework or model used for analysis does not include all the relevant processes or relationships.

No, I am afraid I missed that, but I find Dr. Curry's analysis using the AR5, which would be hard for climate scientists to not find authoritative, to show the uncertainties in their work, logical sound and hard to ignore.

Still, future reports by the IPCC, and others presenting similar work, would better serve the policy process by including formal analysis of uncertainty for key projections, with an explicit description of the methods used.

Viewing the statistical analysis from a more fundamental level will help to clarify some of the methodologies used in surface temperature reconstruction and highlight the different types of uncertainties associated with these various methods.

Therefore they have decided to support the application of the precautionary principle by stating the uncertainties as less than any objective systematic analysis can support and using subjective judgments as a more reliable basis for quantitative conclusions than they really are.

We have already discussed how short term analysis of the data can be misleading, and we have previously commented on the use of the uncertainty in the ensemble mean being confused with the envelope of possible trajectories (here).

Other researchers uncovered large uncertainties in climate predictions made by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), a widely used, multimodel tool for climate analysis.

The common theme to these three primary benefits is managing legal costs — without sacrificing quality — while also reducing uncertainty by using data and analysis to drive better outcomes.

We are most confident in the methodological strengths of the longitudinal design and future longitudinal analyses.7 More caution is needed in interpreting our prevalence estimates, but in spite of the methodological uncertainties of using a non-probabilistic sample, we believe this, like many other quota samples, is likely to give estimates similar to a probabilistic sample (which may be subject to different biases, as we have shown with the NATSISS).23