They found that the business - as -
usual scenario comes with large climate changes the world over and would create entirely new patterns of temperature and precipitation for 12 to 39 percent of Earth's land area.
Not exact matches
Plus this whole wanting a move
scenario provokes the
usual guff from fans who
come out with «he's not all that» etc..
In the
usual scenario, you
come home and your dog starts slinking around and showing discomfort, and you then find his smelly brown deposit on your kitchen floor.
When the climate model output is fed into ecosystem models, and these in turn are coupled to socio - economic analysis tools, the potential future
scenarios that
come out, assuming the world continues its business as
usual, appear rather grim, see e.g. the very interesting final report of the European ATEAM project.
In part, that is because Pacala and Socolow built their
scenario on a business as
usual (BAU) emissions baseline based on assumptions that do not appear to be
coming true.
One might argue that such organizations are backing into the future: they are pursuing a «business as
usual»
scenario when it
comes to coping with multifaceted, multidimensional climate and climate change impact issues.
30 more years of business - as -
usual will make it impossible to keep temperatures from rising beyond Eemian levels (see here for some discussion of stabilisation
scenarios), and decisions (on infrastructure, power stations, R&D, etc.) that are being made now will determine the emissions for decades to
come.
Compared with a «business - as -
usual»
scenario, it shows how a green investment
scenario would allow the sector to continue to expand steadily over the
coming decades while ensuring significant environmental benefits such as reductions in water consumption, energy use and CO2 emissions.
The red line with yellow range represents the warming to
come over the next 90 years in one of the more moderate IPCC business - as -
usual emissions
scenarios (A1B - rapid global economic growth with a balanced emphasis on all energy sources).
«Concentrations of CO2 alone are likely to rise above 400 ppm in
coming decades and could rise far higher under a business - as -
usual scenario.
Mitigation pledges could also
come in the form of intensity targets relative to GDP, peaking years, and departures from a business - as -
usual scenario.
Based on a real world «business as
usual» emissions
scenario, with natural gas displacing oil at its current pace and no carbon tax, I
come up with a CO2 right about inline with RCP 6.0, «a mitigation
scenario, meaning it includes explicit steps to combat greenhouse gas emissions (in this case, through a carbon tax) ``.
Over that time, the globally averaged temperature difference between the depth of an ice age and a warm interglacial period was 4 to 6 °C — comparable to that predicted for the
coming century due to anthropogenic global warming under the fossil - fuel - intensive, business - as -
usual scenario.
Those include recognizing three realities: first that billions of people are on an irreversible course toward living something that looks like a modern life, replete with the choices, comfort, and security that those of us in the rich world take for granted; second, that everyone on the planet and billions more likely to
come can and should follow that path if they choose it; and third, that achieving that outcome while limiting global temperatures to something likely above two degrees but well below the business - as -
usual scenario will require developing zero - carbon technologies capable of powering that world.