Economic activity, earnings growth and valuation discounts don't justify it, and oil prices appear stuck in a range.
Not exact matches
Financial theory
does suggest that equity
valuations, i.e. the price you pay for a dollar of earnings, should drop as the interest rate used to
discount that earning rises.
Now let's suppose a company raised its seed round by issuing a convertible note that had no
valuation cap but
did have a 20 %
discount to the Series A round.
It doesn't matter whether one looks at basic measures such as median
valuation multiples over the past (bull market) decade, or whether one uses a more complex
discounted cash flow model.
* This value is hypothetical, for illustrative purposes only, and
does not account for possible
valuation discounts due to restrictions on the shares, if any.
For long - term investors the most important manifestation of that trend is a U.S. stock market trading at elevated
valuations that
do not
discount much in the way of bad news.
Does an in - depth
valuation process that covers both
discounted cash - flow
valuation analysis and relative
valuation analysis meet your objectives?
European equities have
done well this year, but they are still trading at a
valuation discount to U.S. peers.
But as I noted last week (see Two Point Three Sigmas Above the Norm), nominal growth and interest rate variations have historically canceled out over the past century, with little effect on the accuracy of our
valuation estimates — matched reductions in the growth rate and the
discount rate really don't affect fair value.
I generally only buy into companies that are selling at a substantial
discount, or margin of safety, to my estimate of value for the company so that this way if I
do make a mistake in the analysis or
valuations then I will still have a chance to make some money.
Small - caps generally don't offer the
valuation discount that I like to see when buying something off of the beaten path.
It's a coercive way of
doing an equity or debt offering, and requires a significant
discount to current financing
valuations.
I'm often asked why I don't lower my
discount rate (increase my
valuation) given lower risk free rates.
My next step for this analysis would be to
do a
discounted cash flow analysis on Delta Airlines to further validate the
valuation.
Many investors know all about
discounted cash flow
valuation and can calculate the future cash flows of a company thirty - nine years into the future, but they still fail because they
do not have the mental fortitude or discipline necessary for success.
However, they
did manage a resource upgrade, so that helps... I'm still comfortable with my long - term $ 150 per proved oz in - the - ground gold
valuation, so in this instance I'll apply a 50 %
discount to their 32 K of measured oz & a 75 %
discount to their 148 K of identified oz (ignoring inferred resources, at this point).
Post-oil price collapse, this 10 % rule doesn't make sense... I think it's prudent to adopt an $ 8 per proved boe
valuation & to
discount in similar fashion.
European equities have
done well this year, but they are still trading at a
valuation discount to U.S. peers.
Both of these concepts augur in favor of a breakup of AIG — even without the additional capital needed for being a SIFI (which no insurance firm should be, they don't collapse together, like banks
do), large firms get a
valuation discount, because they can't grow quickly.
Did you note that yesterday Goodbody released a research note on Donegal.Target price EUR 6.70 with VERY conservative assumption (they used a 20 %
discount on the low - end
valuation for the mushroom business, and used bear case
valuations for a lot of other stuff).
Does the short - term bias of
valuation models mean that the impact of lower - than - expected future demand is largely
discounted out at present?