Sentences with phrase «valuation measures point»

Not exact matches

The economic gains and market returns that emerged during the Reagan Administration began from a starting point of 10.8 % unemployment, a current account surplus, and market valuations that - on the most historically reliable measures - were less than one - quarter of present levels.

At this point, obscene equity valuations are already baked in the cake on valuation measures that are reliably correlated with actual subsequent stock market returns.

Once valuations are rich and our broad return / risk estimates are negative, our willingness to accept market risk generally requires a window with two exits — one below, at the point where the trend - following measures deteriorate, and one above, at the point where overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions emerge.

The latitude for a constructive position at present valuations would lie between the point where our measures of market action improve and the point where an overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome reasserts itself.

While we often have very strong views about long - term and full - cycle market outcomes (based on valuation measures that we find strongly correlated with those outcomes in market cycles across history), we rarely have pointed short - term market expectations.

However, they did manage a resource upgrade, so that helps... I'm still comfortable with my long - term $ 150 per proved oz in - the - ground gold valuation, so in this instance I'll apply a 50 % discount to their 32 K of measured oz & a 75 % discount to their 148 K of identified oz (ignoring inferred resources, at this point).

My point is that there are a variety of highly predictive, methodologically distinct measures of market - level valuation (I used the Shiller PE and Tobin's q, but GNP or GDP - to - total market capitalization below work equally as well) that point to overvaluation.

All the historical valuation measures of stocks and markets point to them being fully valued, and that doesn't mean they're overvalued or anywhere near bubble territory.

The choice of CAPE is not without its critics, who are quick to point out that changes in accounting rules and changes to the CPI calculation, along with the timing and benchmark issues inherent in relative valuation measures make CAPE an unreliable metric.