Advising regarding market specific
valuation metrics in support of internal valuation teams
Is your concern with CAPE specifically or
valuation metrics in general as an approach to time investing decisions?
Its pleasing simplicity and ease of application make the P / E ratio one of the most commonly used
valuation metrics in the world.
Book - to - Price is perhaps the most widely used
valuation metric in the investing industry.
Not exact matches
If every
valuation metric I can find didn't suggest the domestic equity (and real estate) market is historically expensive, I'd try to follow Buffett's advice for his wife's estate and put 90 % of my assets
in broad market equity index funds.
One popular
valuation metric, the Equity Risk Premium (ERP), can be useful
in assessing both relative returns and the right mix of stocks versus bonds.
Third, academic research has found that
valuation metrics, such as the earnings yield (E / P) or the CAPE 10 earnings yield, and
valuation spreads have predictive value
in terms of future returns.
While a number of simple measures of
valuation have also been useful over the years, even
metrics such as price - to - peak earnings have been skewed by the unusual profit margins we observed at the 2007 peak, which were about 50 % above the historical norm - reflecting the combination of booming and highly leveraged financial sector profits as well as wide margins
in cyclical and commodity - oriented industries.
In the presence of a broad range of reliable
valuation metrics uniformly at more than twice their historical norms, coupled with the most severe overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising - yield syndrome we define, it is instructive how shorter - term action has evolved near those points.
Valuations on Wall Street may be stretched by a number of
metrics, but that's not stopping the market's youngest investors from thinking that now is a good time to jump
in.
Stocks can see their PE multiples expand and contract
in a manner that has almost nothing to do with changes
in EPS, which makes looking at these
metrics a poor indicator of
valuation or future returns.
But I like the growth rate and the current
valuation metrics compared to others
in the industry.
According to one such globally accepted
metric for oil industry giants — enterprise value vs. earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA)--
in order for Aramco to reach a company
valuation of $ 2 trillion, it needs to report an EBITDA of around $ 130 billion next year, according to Reuters estimates.
Although traditional high dividend payers (think the utilities and telecom sectors) have performed strongly
in recent years, they've become quite expensive by most
valuation metrics.
The company's cash flow is a better
metric to use for profit and
valuation, and investors are paying much less for cash flow now (even though it's very likely to rise considerably
in the near term) than they've been paying, on average, for the last three years.
If you like this
metric, and insist on
valuation based on sales, a more appropriate ratio would be the enterprise value to sales, as it accounts for debt
in the capital structure, as Dan mentioned above.
This drop
in valuation leaves SNA significantly undervalued, both by traditional
metrics and when analyzing the expectations baked into the stock price.
European equities are not that cheap anymore by a number of
valuation metrics; they are trading at an average of about 17 times earnings, which is not a wide undervaluation.1
In my view, the main reason to invest in European equities is the potential for, or the expectation of, a rise in corporate earnings that would be driven by the improving economic environmen
In my view, the main reason to invest
in European equities is the potential for, or the expectation of, a rise in corporate earnings that would be driven by the improving economic environmen
in European equities is the potential for, or the expectation of, a rise
in corporate earnings that would be driven by the improving economic environmen
in corporate earnings that would be driven by the improving economic environment.
Use buybacks
in combination with
valuation metrics to ensure management is repurchasing at a discount.
Table 1 shows the excess returns for a number of
valuation metrics within the U.S. Large Stocks universe, stocks trading
in the U.S. with a market capitalization greater than average from 1964 to 2015.
In fact, Celgene and Shire are the only large - cap biopharmas with lower
valuations based on this particular
metric right now.
According to most
valuation metrics, the S&P 500 and the C Fund that follows it is
in its second most overvalued period ever, with the Dotcom Bubble of 2000 being the single most overvalued.
Other
valuation metrics tell a similar story: Stocks are expensive, although it is not clear that they are yet
in bubble territory.
This suggests comparing today's
valuation metrics to past levels may not be as useful a guide to future returns as
in previous cycles.
Knowing how stocks are priced historically relative to some
metric like earnings or cash flows is far more instructive than knowing whether stocks are at an all time high or not (we've addressed the predictive utility of stock
valuations in several posts, including here and here).
But one thing to keep
in mind when using simple
valuation metrics like P / B is another Buffett comment on banks:
It can place me
in the «caricature» camp for value managers, because my
valuation metrics are usually lower than most.
In addition, these same
valuation metrics must currently be less than the 10 year median of the stock's own history.
The
metrics that track some of these trends - the level of profit margins
in relation to sales growth, sector
valuation, and a downward drifting earnings surprise rate - are currently highlighting potential intermediate - term risks on the earnings front.
Valuation metrics that aren't influenced by year - to - year fluctuations
in profit margins are showing record levels of overvaluation.
In my introduction to market euphoria, the
valuation metrics replaced earnings with eyeballs and clicks.
We acknowledge Pepsi is expensive on traditional
valuation metrics and expect it will remain so, especially
in a low yield environment.
Valuation metrics alone hold little meaning without a deep understanding of the company that you are valuing, the industry
in which it competes, and the competitive advantage (or lack thereof) that it possesses.
In that sense all analysis of stock market based on historical metrics do nt make much sense since composition of stocks is entirely different in different era and as more capital efficient business model evolve and their time to market cycle shrinks stocks likely to command higher valuations and suddenly lower valuations during short period of time like already happening for many technology companies and as influence of technology on overall cost structure of companies increases (for example: robotics replace many of employees cost etc) valuation matrix of most companies likely to get affected dynamically in short duration of time than in the pas
In that sense all analysis of stock market based on historical
metrics do nt make much sense since composition of stocks is entirely different
in different era and as more capital efficient business model evolve and their time to market cycle shrinks stocks likely to command higher valuations and suddenly lower valuations during short period of time like already happening for many technology companies and as influence of technology on overall cost structure of companies increases (for example: robotics replace many of employees cost etc) valuation matrix of most companies likely to get affected dynamically in short duration of time than in the pas
in different era and as more capital efficient business model evolve and their time to market cycle shrinks stocks likely to command higher
valuations and suddenly lower
valuations during short period of time like already happening for many technology companies and as influence of technology on overall cost structure of companies increases (for example: robotics replace many of employees cost etc)
valuation matrix of most companies likely to get affected dynamically
in short duration of time than in the pas
in short duration of time than
in the pas
in the past.
All
in, no
valuation metric is perfect.
Retail appetite for these stocks is usually driven by the belief
in the product or service, not by its underlying
valuations or market
metrics.
Readers, how do you currently implement
valuation metrics while investing
in the stock market?
While other approaches are more appropriate for industry - specific analysis, such as price - to - book for banks, the P / E is a widely - accepted
metric in assessing the overall stock market's
valuation.
We do not see equity
valuation metrics falling back to historical means
in an environment where earnings are staging a sustained recovery and long - term rates are low.
* Accounting issues:
in one sense this takes the fourth point to an extreme - the stock market's
valuation of a company is flawed, not because it's focusing on the wrong
metrics but because profits or other key financial data are being flattered or even fabricated by company management.
Just about every
valuation metric you can look at is currently well below the five - year average, which is somewhat warranted
in light of slowing growth.
Fama missed all that, but P / E10 (Shiller's
valuation metric) zeroes
in on it.
The company's cash flow is a better
metric to use for profit and
valuation, and investors are paying much less for cash flow now (even though it's very likely to rise considerably
in the near term) than they've been paying, on average, for the last three years.
Although the 2015 market presents nothing quite so drastic, there are still companies trading at
valuations far
in excess of what is merited when you take a deep look at the growth projections, balance sheet, and historical
valuation metrics.
I have dabbled
in quantitative factor models
in the past, and normally I start with an index, group by sector, and then compare each company relative to its sector (I use
valuation metrics, liquidity, technical factors such as relative strength and price relative to moving averages, earnings volatility, earnings estimates revisions, balance sheet
metrics, beta, and a proprietary risk / reward
metric).
The article cites comments by columnist Mark Hulbert, who refers to
valuation metrics such as P / E, price - book, price - sales and price - dividend ratios as weak indicators of market tops but adds that we ignore them «at our peril, since it's also true that almost all bull market tops
in history... Read More
As I mentioned earlier, the median price - earnings ratios (P / E) and price - sales ratios (P / S) actually surmounted the peaks at the end of the last two bull market cycles — the
metrics went beyond the
valuation peaks hit
in 2000 and
in 2007.
We use an aggregate of four
valuation measures
in addition to the sole
metric of P / B, and we investigate horizons of one month and one to five years.
In the first article of this series we demonstrate the relationship between
valuations (defined as P / B) and returns on a five - year horizon, fully aware that P / B is only one of several
valuation metrics and that the five - year comparison was not ideal for fast - turnover factors and strategies.
4 I calculated the same
valuation metrics for the companies
in the S&P 500 index.