Not exact matches
The Fed
seems more alarmed this year than last about
valuations but the reality is that the
ratio on the S & 500 relative to either trailing or forward earnings has remained stable.
But when you are not in scary
valuation lands, general market
ratios do not
seem to help much in terms of
valuation.
Since one common
valuation metric is EV / EBITDA, a higher numerator will make the stock
seem more expensive - that is the EV / EBITDA
ratio will
seem higher when using excess cash as opposed to cash.
But given today's low interest rates (recently about 2.3 % for 10 - year Treasuries) and relatively rich stock
valuations (Yale finance professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P / E
ratio for the stock market recently stood at 29.2 vs. an average of 16.7 since 1900), it would
seem to strain credulity to expect anything close to the annualized returns of close to the annualized return of 10 % for stocks and 5 % for bonds over the past 90 years or so, let alone the dizzying gains the market has generated from its post-financial crisis lows.
It might
seem that a 3 - to - 1
ratio between the
valuation of growth relative to value is a big spread, but it's not; the spread averages closer to 5 to 1.
But overall, the scope for capital gains
seems compelling, noting particularly the recent 10 - 15 % pa rent increases (albeit, interrupted by the recent heavy - handed two year rent freeze), though obviously this should already be reflected within the IRES portfolio
valuation / yield & investors» total return expectations — a 1.0 Price / Book
ratio still
seems appropriate: Continue reading →
On balance, a
valuation based simply on current metrics
seems neither too harsh nor too optimistic — there are still plenty of higher TV / radio M&A multiples to reference, but I think a 12 P / E and a 2.0 P / S
ratio (based on a 21.8 % operating profit margin) are pretty neutral values to apply.
APD's stock has run up incredibly over the last few years, but the
valuation seems unwarranted here with a P / E
ratio north of 32.
But overall, the scope for capital gains
seems compelling, noting particularly the recent 10 - 15 % pa rent increases (albeit, interrupted by the recent heavy - handed two year rent freeze), though obviously this should already be reflected within the IRES portfolio
valuation / yield & investors» total return expectations — a 1.0 Price / Book
ratio still
seems appropriate: