Sentences with phrase «valuations as an indicator»

We see starting valuations as an indicator of future returns only in the long run.

We see starting valuations as an indicator of future returns only in the long run.

Not exact matches

That said, valuations have never been useful as an indicator of near - term market fluctuations - a shortcoming that has been amplified since the late 1990's.

Given the absence of a public trading market of our common stock, and in accordance with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants Accounting and Valuation Guide, Valuation of Privately - Held Company Equity Securities Issued as Compensation, our board of directors exercised reasonable judgment and considered numerous and subjective factors to determine the best estimate of fair value of our common stock, including independent third - party valuations of our common stock; the prices at which we sold shares of our convertible preferred stock to outside investors in arms - length transactions; the rights, preferences, and privileges of our convertible preferred stock relative to those of our common stock; our operating results, financial position, and capital resources; current business conditions and projections; the lack of marketability of our common stock; the hiring of key personnel and the experience of our management; the introduction of new products; our stage of development and material risks related to our business; the fact that the option grants involve illiquid securities in a private company; the likelihood of achieving a liquidity event, such as an initial public offering or a sale of our company given the prevailing market conditions and the nature and history of our business; industry trends and competitive environment; trends in consumer spending, including consumer confidence; and overall economic indicators, including gross domestic product, employment, inflation and interest rates, and the general economic outlook.

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknesAs usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknesas measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weaknesas measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

First, the «returns on equities» here are typically taken to be earnings yields, which as we've frequently noted, are affected by cyclical variations in profit margins that make them notoriously poor indicators of long - term prospective returns (see Two Point Three Sigmas Above the Norm and Margins, Multiples and the Iron Law of Valuation).

Yet, while valuation has been among the strongest indicators of returns over time, it is historically unreliable as a timing signal.

Yet, while valuation has been among the strongest indicators of returns over time, it is historically unreliable as a timing signal.

I view valuation on forward earnings as the single best indicator of sentiment since it is dollar and trade - weighted.

Valuations should not be one of the indicators as valuations of momentum stocks are rarely aValuations should not be one of the indicators as valuations of momentum stocks are rarely avaluations of momentum stocks are rarely attractive.

Years of artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high stock prices with valuation indicators, such as PE, PB and Shiller's CAPE, flashing red for some time now.

The article cites comments by columnist Mark Hulbert, who refers to valuation metrics such as P / E, price - book, price - sales and price - dividend ratios as weak indicators of market tops but adds that we ignore them «at our peril, since it's also true that almost all bull market tops in history... Read More

As with valuation measures, there are lots of sentiment indicators as welAs with valuation measures, there are lots of sentiment indicators as welas well.

For other investors, a careful study of the headline economic indicators & local market valuations will enhance risk / reward — for example, I focus particularly on Vietnam as a highly attractive single - country opportunity.

So I incorporate as many tools as possible in my analysis, including: Fundamental valuations, macroeconomic models, monetary and fiscal policies, interest rate developments, sentiment and momentum indicators, and chart analysis.

As of last week, the Market Climate in stocks was characterized by a combination of rich valuations, unfavorable market action, continued negative economic pressures on forward - looking indicators, and additional indicators (sentiment, credit spreads, etc) associated with a poor average return / risk profile in stocks.

The present environment is characterized by unusually overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions, with rising 10 - year Treasury bond yields, heavy insider selling, valuations on «forward earnings» appearing reasonable only because profit margins are more than 70 % above historical norms (fully explained by the negative sum of government and personal savings as a share of GDP), with the S&P 500 at a 4 - year market high, in a mature market advance, with lagging employment indicators still positive but more than half of all OECD countries already in GDP contraction, Europe in recession, Britain on the cusp, and the EU imposing massive losses on depositors in order to protect lenders in an unstable banking system where Cyprus is the iceberg's tip.

As I said, I don't think valuation is a good indicator here — obviously, you still need to be sensible, but valuation is unlikely to reliably identify the long - term winners at this point.

If you'd been using CAPE as your valuation tool, you could have missed the ensuing bull market, and therefore made the claim «my valuation indicator is broken.»

It looks at a company's performance in the marketplace as a basis of stock valuation rather than technical indicators pertaining to a stock.