When rates are low, investors put more value on future earnings, and
the valuation of stocks tends to rise.
This is why the relative
valuations of these stocks tend to fall as rates rise.
Not exact matches
Although value
stocks typically hold up better in times
of volatility, this bull market has been exceptionally smooth — up until the last year, that is — and favored high - growth momentum
stocks, which
tend to have more expensive
valuations.
That's because bond yields and
stock valuations tend to track each more closely at higher levels
of inflation.
Vertical factor: spread
of Baa bond yields over Aaa bond yields — Hypothesis: When spreads are high,
stock valuations tend to be low.
Most
of these
stocks tend to have relatively low
valuations and steady growth potential...
That brings us to the next potential risk — the risk that the largest companies in the S&P 500 Index also
tend to be overvalued when compared with their 10 - year average price / earnings (P / E) ratio.2 According to our research taking these
valuation measures into account, 70 %
of the 10 largest
stocks in the S&P 500 Index were overvalued, as
of December 31, 2015 and 56 %
of the top 25
stocks are overvalued, the very same ones that make up a third
of the index allocation.
Multiply this potential for
valuation bias across all investors, and inevitably you
tend to end up with a pretty inefficient / irrational market... at least in terms
of individual
stocks & sectors.
And so, accordingly, it
tends to attract pretty dissimilar investor constituencies, who may only focus on: i) a handful
of the largest caps, regardless
of valuation & exposure, ii)
stocks which (may) offer cheap / alternative access to overseas growth (a surprisingly large number
of Irish companies are UK / Europe / globally focused), iii)
stocks offering domestic exposure (notably, economic pure - plays are actually pretty rare), iv) a listed commercial & residential property sector that's only emerged in the past couple
of years, and finally (& perhaps most notoriously) v) a (junior) resource
stock sector that's been decimated in the last few years.
The problem with rigorous
stock valuation is quant tunnel vision — you
tend to end up weighing & ranking all
stocks purely in terms
of their upside potential.
Also, raw application
of simple
valuation ratios
tend to work on average in
stock selection.
The historical cost accounting principle, which
tends to understate certain asset values, and the supply and demand forces
of the marketplace generally push
stock prices above book value per share
valuations.
The term «interest»
tends to be used loosely when discussing
valuation of stocks.