Not exact matches
«A
Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
on the
Valuation of the Stockmarket at the Retirement Date.»
The
safe withdrawal rate is not a constant number but VARIES with changes in the
valuation level that applies
on the day the retirement begins.
For example, the
safe withdrawal rate changes over time depending
on equity
valuations and the
safe withdrawal rate can be vastly different depending
on your age and expectations about Social Security, see two case studies I did recently at ChooseFI and last week here
on our blog.
Those are excellent numbers, especially when we consider the effect that
valuations have
on Safe Withdrawal Rates.
We have successfully brought the
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) up to the long - term return of stocks, based
on today's
valuations.
Better yet, a mechanically varying allocation based
on valuations lifts today's 30 - Year
Safe Withdrawal Rate above 4.5 %.
Juicy Excerpt: I knew that the
safe withdrawal rate studies did not contain adjustments for the
valuation level that applies
on the day the retirement begins.
The established
safe -
withdrawal -
rate rules of thumb are based
on long periods of time in which yields were higher than they are today and stock
valuations were lower.
And so it is obviously not possible to determine whether a specified
withdrawal rate is
safe or not without taking into account the
valuation level that applies
on the day the retirement begins.
My good friend Mike Piper has written an article («Investing Based
on Market
Valuation») at his Oblivious Investor blog exploring my finding that the Old School
safe withdrawal rate studies get the numbers wildly wrong (promoted recently by my other good friend Todd Tresidder) and the research done by my other good friend Wade Pfau showing that
Valuation - Informed Indexing has for the entire 140 years for which we have market data available to us provided far higher returns at greatly reduced risk.
Valuation - Informed Indexing # 127 by Rob Bennett My good friend Mike Piper has written an article («Investing Based
on Market
Valuation») at his Oblivious Investor blog exploring my finding that the Old School
safe withdrawal rate studies get the numbers wildly -LSB-...]
In fact, as we look at realistic extrapolations for portfolio survival based
on today's
valuations, TIPS consistently produce higher
Safe Withdrawal Rates.