This has led to
value on underdogs, especially small road dogs.
This has historically created
value on underdogs.
Squares — or casual weekend warriors — overwhelmingly bet favorites and high - scoring teams, which has historically created
value on underdogs.
However the team is completely different at this point so there could be
value on underdogs FDU if the public pushes the line up.
Casual bettors have a tendency to pound favorites, which has historically created
value on underdogs.
Squares have a tendency to pound favorites and overs, which has historically created
value on underdogs and unders.
As our readers know, sharp sports bettors often find
value on underdogs.
The system, which has gone 22 - 8 ATS for +12.47 units, highlights contrarian
value on underdogs of at least 5.5 - points.
Historically this has created
value on underdogs and unders, but every season we update our betting percentage data to find the optimal betting percentage threshold for betting against the public.
The sports betting research that SportsInsights.com performs for major US sports has uncovered biases that relate to betting against the public — and generally finds
value on underdogs.
Historically this had led to
value on underdogs and unders, but sometimes simply betting against the public isn't enough.
Group odds to win / advance were recently posted and I think there's
value on some underdogs to reach the knockout round.
These individuals overwhelmingly pound favorites and overs, which has historically created
value on underdogs and unders.
Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines accordingly, which has historically created
value on the underdog.
Both of these teams are comfortable playing on the road, and
the value on the underdog could be tough to pass up on given the strength of both of these teams.
The majority of college basketball bettors take the favorite in nearly 80 % of regular season games, which has historically created
value on the underdog.
Most contrarian strategies tend to highlight
value on the underdog, but bettors should be laying the points and taking Golden State -7.5.
Our historical trends have shown
value on the underdog with such a low spread, but bettors on either Florida or the Over will have to find some confidence in the Gators scoring to have a chance of cashing.
This creates additional
value on the underdog for opportunistic bettors.
Sports Insights» College Football Betting Systems have also found
value on the underdog, triggering 13 Smart Money Plays on the Broncos, including one at WSEX, which, according to our 2011 College Football Betting Systems Preview, finished 2010 as our # 1 - ranked Smart Money sportsbook at +14.42 units.
Not exact matches
Based
on this trend, Ole Miss (+11) is offering contrarian
value as a home
underdog in this heavily bet game.
That probability equates to implied odds of +101, meaning there might be slight
value taking the
underdog on the moneyline.
Since the public is more willing to bet
on underdogs during the playoffs, we believed there would be
value by taking a contrarian approach and backing the favorite — especially when they were receiving limited public support.
As detailed in our 2011 NCAAB Betting Against The Public article, there is great
value betting
on games where an
underdog is receiving under a quarter of all spread bets.
12/22/11 — Large NFL Home
Underdogs Provide Late Season
Value 12/14/11 — College Football Bowl Season 70/30 Betting System 12/07/11 — In the 13th Week He Rose Again: Public Bettors Back
on Tebow 11/30/11 — Identifying False Line Moves 11/16/11 — How to Win with Steam Moves 11/09/11 — Optimum Levels for Betting Against the Public 11/02/11 — Boston Bruins Pounding the Public 10/19/11 — The Tim Tebow Effect 10/12/11 — Public Chasing Their Way to Even in 2011 10/05 / 11 — The Public's Love / Hate Relationship with the 2011 Buffalo Bills
With Justin Verlander taking the mound for Detroit in Game 3, it's no surprise that the Tigers are receiving 63 % of moneyline wagers as -180 favorites, however, there could be some
value on the Yankees as +169
underdogs.
It's also interesting to see that although
underdogs have historically offered baseball bettors superior
value, favorites (150 - 108, +2.16 units won) have had the edge
on Sunday night's.
At +135, I really like the
value on Mexico as an
underdog (who played in Russia last summer) to advance from the group.
Although our initial belief that
underdogs would perform well during day games was not confirmed, we continued to see great
value on MLB home teams — especially when that team also has a losing record.
In the past we have explained that there's
value betting
on contrarian favorites or, as it's also known, fading the trendy
underdog.
Additionally, our research indicates that there is tremendous
value on late season home
underdogs.
Although the waning sample size makes this information difficult to act
on, it unveils a direct correlation between the number of bets and the
value of fading trendy
underdogs.
As we have detailed previously in this blog as well as in our series of Bet Sharp articles, there is excellent
value betting
on home
underdogs from week 15
on — especially when dealing with home dogs of 8 + points.
It's also worth noting that there's a false narrative which dictates that sharp bettors only take
underdogs and therefore there's never
value on the favorite.
Lines will drop just as often as they rise, but there is some
value taking favorites
on the opening line and
underdogs as close to game time as possible.
This season road favorites have gone 220 - 150 (+13.56 units won), but historically there has been far more
value on home
underdogs.
Although sportsbooks know this information and build it into line, these «square» bettors often create artificial
value by heavily betting the favorite and forcing sportsbooks to shade their lines to encourage action
on the other side (typically the
underdog).
This opportunity is great for bettors who want to take the
underdog, but what if you think there is
value on the favorite?
Another trend pointing towards
value on the Rockies is the historical performance of
underdogs in divisional games.
There have been contradicting bet signals triggered
on this game, but almost every historical trend points towards
value on the Warriors as a small road
underdog.
In one of the most heavily bet bowl games, I love the
value on the Tigers as contrarian home
underdog.
As we near the end of the NFL season, we look for
value on large home
underdogs.
Although road favorites have historically provided more
value to college football spread bettors, there's been excellent
value taking small road
underdogs (between -110 and +425)
on the moneyline.
Pinnacle — whose lines are used within Bet Labs — typically increases the juice
on their lines at +170, so we hypothesized that there would be
value lost if we included huge
underdogs.
We were already well aware that the public loves to bet
on favorites and thusly the
value would come from betting against the public and examining solely
underdogs.
Over the years, betting
on underdogs has proven to be a good «
value» play.
You can tread lightly
on these two plays since I normally don't pick out big
underdogs, but both do have some
value at the current odds.
Before the start of the season we published our 2014 - 15 College Basketball Betting Against the Public report which explained how bettors could capitalize
on contrarian
value by taking large road
underdogs following a loss.
There are a number of games this weekend including this one where public bettors are happy to take the
underdog and the points, which could present some
value on the other side by the end of the week.
Between the reverse line movement and our data regarding highly bet
underdogs, it looks like there is betting
value on Florida for Friday's matchup with Florida Gulf Coast.