To identify the effects of human activity on temperature, we simulate the model (estimation sample 1960 — 1998) with post 1998
values of solar insolation, SOI, and volcanic sulfates held at their 1998 level while allowing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulfur emissions to evolve as observed.
Not exact matches
The IPCC reports document the plausible intrinsic
solar output increase
of perhaps 0.12 W / m2 since 1750 as being the only significant natural agency in terms
of climate change: if my calculations
of the natural changing
insolation values are correct, then the IPCC is demonstrated to have erred in that respect.
Conversely, holding greenhouse gas concentrations and sulfur emissions at their 1998
values and allowing
solar insolation, SOI, and volcanic sulfates to evolve as observed generates a forecast that is consistent with the observed pattern
of temperature change.
Time series for
solar insolation (18), SOI (19), and the radiative forcing
of volcanic sulfates (20) are updated with
values from sources that are used to generate the original dataset.