But, they do suggest that there is a lot of natural temperature
variability over timescales of centuries.
Not exact matches
Using the 2m Faulkes Telescope North, we conducted a search for stars in M13 that show
variability over a year (2005 — 2006) on
timescales of days and months.
Now that Mainland et al have published «The missense of smell: functional
variability in the human odorant receptor repertoire» and Foote et al have published «Tracking niche variation
over millennial
timescales in sympatric killer whale lineages,» the similarities at the top of the aquatic and terrestrial food chains attest to the power of conserved molecular mechanisms to link cause and effect across all species via olfaction and odor receptors, which is what I detailed in the review I submitted last week.
The radiative - cloud - driven mechanism is appealing to explain the observed flux
variability, especially those evolve irregularly
over short
timescales.
... On decadal to multidecadal
timescales, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic tripole mode determine the
variability of rainfall
over India (Sen Roy et al., 2003; Lu et al., 2006; Zhang and Delworth, 2006; Li et al., 2008; Sen Roy, 2011; Krishnamurthy and Krishnamurthy, 2014a, 2014b, 2016b).
Of course, on a
timescale of one decade the noise in the temperature signal from internal
variability and measurement uncertainty is quite large, so this might be hard to determine, though tamino showed that five year means show a monotonic increase
over recent decades, and one might not unreasonably expect this to cease for a decade in a grand solar minimum scenario.
The U.S. military seems interested in climate variations / change on
timescales from seasonal to scales out to about 30 years, a period
over which natural climate
variability could very well swamp anthropogenically forced climate change.
Don't forget that there is natural
variability in the climate, and the GW signal won't be differentiated from the noise
over short
timescales.
I was reacting to Chris Colose comment re: «Models all produce natural
variability, many of which show temperature flatlines
over decadal
timescales.»
Models all produce natural
variability, many of which show temperature flatlines
over decadal
timescales, and given the wide importance of natural
variability over < 10 year time scales and uncertain forcings, one can absolutely not claim that this is inconsistent with current thinking about climate.
Some of these episodes are based on climatology (i.e., averages
over decadal
timescales) as previously mentioned, so they don't allow the study of interannual
variability but do give strong evidence of prevailing conditions in the longer term; this is especially true of the southern hemisphere.
In this context, energy producers need to anticipate resources, their
variability at seasonal
timescales and their trends
over decades.
Thus the core - mantle interaction is believed to dominate the
variability over a wide range of
timescales from years to centuries.
«We build on this insight to demonstrate directly from ice - core data that,
over glacial — interglacial
timescales, climate dynamics are largely driven by internal Earth system mechanisms, including a marked positive feedback effect from temperature
variability on greenhouse - gas concentrations.»
Corals are a key archive for understanding
variability over seasons, years, and decades, the
timescales most relevant to human societies (Figure 2).
Conversely, rural people in many parts of the world have,
over long
timescales, adapted to climate
variability, or at least learned to cope with it.
Why would YOU expect there to be a direct relationship
over this
timescale given the amount of other factors influencing surface temp short term
variability?
Hasn't the latest Arctic research (e.g., Kobashi, et al., 2010; Rørvik, et al., 2009) shown that significant
variability of high latitude temperatures on > 100 + year
timescales have been the natural course of events
over the last 1,000 to 1,500 years, all without benefit of increasing or decreasing levels of atmospheric CO2?
«
Over relatively short, non-climate
timescales (less than 20 - 30 years), these patterns of natural
variability can lead to all kinds of changes in global and regional near - surface air temperature: flat, increasing, or even decreasing trends,»
I wrote to the BBC at the time pointing out that the audience was likely to have been severely misled by this question, that the warming
over the previous 16 years reached a conventional threshold of statistical significance (p < 0.05), and that
over a short
timescale natural causes of
variability (ENSO, volcanoes, the solar cycle) tend to predominate, so the short answer is «15 years is too small a sample to demonstrate statistical significance.»
Burgman, R. J., Clement, A. C., Mitas, C. M., Chen, J. and Esslinger, K. (2008), Evidence for atmospheric
variability over the Pacific on decadal
timescales GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL.
I am not aware of evidence for natural
variability / oscillations that shuffle heat around having operated on the multi-century
timescale over the past millennium.
When in balance, primary production and respiration processes result in large diel
variability (Table 2), but are essentially CO2 - neutral; however,
over longer
timescales, spatial and / or temporal decoupling of these processes can change pH drastically (Borges and Gypens 2010; Provoost et al. 2010; Cai et al. 2011).
I think you're right that subtle differences will be distinguishable to some extent
over longer
timescales, but van Oldenborgh et al. 2013 suggests all models show too little natural spatial
variability.