Sentences with phrase «variability superimposed»

The global surface air temperature record of the last 150 years is characterized by a long - term warming trend, with strong multidecadal variability superimposed.

The bicentennial trend lines clearly diverge from the past 30 or 50 or hundred years, and the most closely fitting explanation for this behavior is anthropogenic causes shifting the trends leaving only a shadow of natural variability superimposed on the sharp centennial scale rise, at about an order of magnitude smaller amplitude than the changes associated with GHGs and dampened by man - made aerosols.

The presence of multidecadal internal variability superimposed on the secular trend gives the appearance of accelerated warming and cooling episodes at roughly regular intervals.

According to the NCAR / UCAR press release on the subject, the variations in warming and cooling in the 30 simulations illustrate the far - reaching effects of natural variability superimposed on human - induced climate change.

If you blank out the spike, there is no longer much evidence of a plateau, just a steady increase at a fairly constant rate, with a bit of variability superimposed on top.

So they are talking about natural variability superimposed on a long term trend due to anthropogenic forcing.

«The global surface air temperature record of the last 150 years is characterized by a long ‐ term warming trend, with strong multidecadal variability superimposed.

The geographic distribution of ocean warming is consistent with natural variability superimposed on a warming background state forced by the increased greenhouse effect.

Amongst others, John Nielsson Gammon, Foster and Rahmstorf, CSALT, Kosaka and Xie use models of varying sophistication that yield temperature evolution consistent with natural variability superimposed over a positive trend.

This NASA analysis highlights that the recent lull in surface temperatures is simply the result of natural variability superimposed upon the global warming trend - the cool phase of a cool / warm oscillation.

Not exact matches

Moreover, any internal variability in the system will be superimposed on this even stronger growing positive trend, shifting the base climate into a state not seen for at least a few million years.

The variability of the quasar is characterized by a ground state with typical fluctuation amplitudes of ~ 0.2 mag around B ~ 20.5, superimposed by a singular flare of ~ 2 yr duration (observer frame) with the maximum at 1992.81 where the UV flux has increased by a factor of ~ 20.

There are then at least three independent lines of evidence that confirm we are not dealing with a slowdown in the global warming trend, but rather with progressive global warming with superimposed natural variability:

But their PNAS publication also referred to natural climate cycles, superimposed on the trend line, like ENSO and solar variability, both of which have been net contributors to global cooling over 1998 - 2008 [so climate skeptics can not — as they still do — point to either the Sun or El Niño to explain the world's temperature graph over that period of time].

To the contrary, it allows attribution of a prolonged hiatus to internal system variability, superimposed upon and obscuring a background trend.

But even then, a rational person would more likely come to the conclusion that there is a warming trend superimposed onto interannual variability (mainly explained by ENSO and volcanic eruptions).

Internal variability has always been superimposed on top of global surface temperature trends, but the magnitude - as well as the fingerprints - of current warming clearly indicates that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant factor.

So we will have natural climate variability in the 21st century (we have already seen this in the first decade), and superimposed on this we will have the additional CO2 forcing.

Because the NAO is primarily controlled by intrinsic atmospheric dynamics, it constitutes a major source of unpredictable natural variability whose impacts will be superimposed upon those of anthropogenic climate change.

These NAO - induced «book - ends» of future climate trends are very similar to those depicted in the individual simulations shown earlier (Fig. 1), but instead of case studies, they are based on the dominant structure of internal atmospheric circulation variability across all 40 ensemble members superimposed upon the forced response.

«I was irked by the persistent use of wishy - washy terminology such as «likely» and «very likely» that was totally uncalled for... Such «social sciences» terminology might be allowable if there was no other available evidence for global warming except for the statistical analysis of a relatively short global temperature time - series (on which there is superimposed a substantial natural variability component).

These NAO «book - ends» provide an estimate of the 5 — 95 % range of uncertainty in projected trends due to internal variability of the NAO based on observations superimposed upon model estimates of human - induced climate change.

In other words, if these yield reductions resulting from greenhouse gas — induced climate change were superimposed on the yield reductions that might occur during a particularly dry period arising from the region's characteristic precipitation variability, they would be higher and comparable with the results from the Morocco National Communication.

By superimposing the climacograms of the different series, we obtain an impressive overview of the variability for time scales spanning almost nine orders of magnitude — from 1 month to 50 million years.

Li et al., 2017 (DOI: 10.1016 / j.quascirev.2017.01.009): «Additionally, increased El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength (possibly El Ni ~ no - like phases) during drying periods, increased volcanic eruptions and the resulting aerosol load during cooling periods, as well as high volumes of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 during the recent warming periods, may also play a role in partly affecting the climatic variability in NC, superimposing on the overall solar dominated long - term control.»

Rather, it is superimposed with variability that can make the warming signal disappear or appear to accelerate for decades.

Multi-decadal oscillations plus trend hypothesis: 20th century climate variability / change is explained by the large multidecadal oscillations (e.g NAO, PDO, AMO) with a superimposed trend of external forcing (AGW warming).

The decadal - scale variability reflected in the temperature reconstruction from tree rings may well be superimposed over this warmer baseline, but the warmth still would not likely match the observed average maximum temperatures over the past decade (17.54 °C mean maximum average for 1999 — 2008, Fort Valley, AZ, Western Regional Climate Center)(Table S1).

These climatic changes are superimposed on top of our natural variability of floods and droughts and we must factor this into our responses.

(Here «falsifiable» should more precisely be something wordier like «significantly more precise than the obvious null hypotheses, e.g., historical levels of climate variability noise superimposed on a small no - feedback warming trend due to anthropogenic CO2.»)

Of course, these glacial - interglacial cycles operate on very long timescales (tens of thousands of years), and it is possible that superimposed on the natural cooling trend there is some «natural warming trend» that is part of a shorter - timescale variability, but no one (no one) has found any evidence to support this yet.

A major lesson of the 2013 Sea Ice Outlook is the large interannual variability in sea ice extent introduced by regional meteorological variability, superimposed on a long term thinning trend.

The last low - ice event related to orbital forcing (high insolation) was in the early Holocene, after which the northern high latitudes cooled overall, with some superimposed shorter - term (multidecadal to millennial - scale) and lower - magnitude variability.