The averages above do hide a significant amount
of variation in returns, and the direction of equity valuations at any given point in time also matters.
The category risk index provides a relative measure of risk by measuring the variation in total return for a fund over the last three years to the
typical variation in return for all funds in its category.
Research based on past performance has consistently shown that the most important factor
in variations in returns is market movement.
Cross-sectional dispersion in global equities — a measure of
the variation in returns across individual securities — recently reached its highest level in four years, according to our analysis.
The longer the average maturity of the bond fund, the greater will be
the variation in the return on the bond fund when interest rates change.
Adding economic expectations to valuation criteria provides further insight into
the variation in these returns.
But over time
the variation in returns is largely explained by the MERs:
Your charts make it seem that
the variation in returns decreases with time when in fact it increases.
In our observation period, 51 % of (square of correlation) variance in high yield bond returns and 36 % of variance in emerging market bond returns can be explained by
the variations in the returns of U.S. equities.
Beyond investing in index funds, academic research has found certain factors or premiums within the market that explain
the variation in its returns.
Adding economic expectations to valuation criteria provides further insight into
the variation in these returns.
Variations in the returns of one stock should offset variations in the returns of other stocks.
What they actually said was 93.6 % of
the VARIATION in your returns comes from asset allocation.