I think some such mechanism is necessary to account for
the variations in mean global temperature associated with the oceanic oscilations.
Not exact matches
As alluded to
in our post, one important issue is the possibility that changes
in El Nino may have significantly offset opposite
temperature variations in the extratropics, moderating the influence of the extratropical «Little Ice Age» and «Medieval Warm Period» on hemispheric or
global mean temperatures (e.g. Cobb et al (2003).
That
mean global tropospheric
temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen
in close accord with the SOI of 5 — 7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the
temperature variation.
Tsushima, Y., A. Abe - Ouchi, and S. Manabe, 2005: Radiative damping of annual
variation in global mean surface
temperature: Comparison between observed and simulated feedback.
He then uses what information is available to quantify (
in Watts per square meter) what radiative terms drive that
temperature change (for the LGM this is primarily increased surface albedo from more ice / snow cover, and also changes
in greenhouse gases... the former is treated as a forcing, not a feedback; also, the orbital
variations which technically drive the process are rather small
in the
global mean).
As long as the temporal pattern of
variation in aerosol forcing is approximately correct, the need to achieve a reasonable fit to the temporal
variation in global mean temperature and the difference between Northern and Southern Hemisphere
temperatures can provide a useful constraint on the net aerosol radiative forcing (as demonstrated, e.g., by Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Stott et al., 2006c).
One finds on the secular time scale that both of the X - and Y - component temporal, annual -
means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Me
means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the
Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual
means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Me
means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole
variations and the
variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual
MeansMeans].
As alluded to
in our post, one important issue is the possibility that changes
in El Nino may have significantly offset opposite
temperature variations in the extratropics, moderating the influence of the extratropical «Little Ice Age» and «Medieval Warm Period» on hemispheric or
global mean temperatures (e.g. Cobb et al (2003).
Full climate models also include large regional
variations in absolute
temperature (e.g. ranging from -50 to 30ºC at any one time), and so small offsets
in the
global mean are almost imperceptible.
In the Swanson and Tsonis paper it is suggested that the decadal variations of the global mean temperature, the climate shifts, observed in the 20th century are basically caused by the synchronization of four mode
In the Swanson and Tsonis paper it is suggested that the decadal
variations of the
global mean temperature, the climate shifts, observed
in the 20th century are basically caused by the synchronization of four mode
in the 20th century are basically caused by the synchronization of four modes.
Another equally important challenge is the fact that there are pronounced ~ 11 - year
variations in the CRF, but the presence of ~ 11 - year
variations in the
global mean temperature are much less pronounced than the trend over the 3 — 4 most recent decades.
If the CRF were so important (and the cloud response near - instantaneous) why do we not see more pronounced ~ 11 - year
variations in the
global mean temperature?
Miskolczi's argument
means any
variations in global temperature are almost all due to changes
in solar and geothermal energy.
Figures A and B show past
variations in the
global mean temperature inferred from direct measurements (A) and from the analysis of ice - cores (B).
It can be seen from basic greenhouse theory that greenhouse warming should amplify not only the
global mean surface
temperature but also any
variations in the
global mean surface
temperature that are from non-greenhouse sources at the same rate.
Variations in global -
mean temperature are inferred from three different sets of measurements: surface observations, satellite observations, and radiosonde observations.
Also recognizable are numerous apparently natural climate
variations, for example, strong temporary cooling
in the North Atlantic from the 1950s through the 1970s, which contributed to the lack of
global -
mean temperature increase during that time.
The truth is nobody has the slightest idea what the small
variations in «
global temperature» over the course of the 20th century (or any other century) are supposed to
mean.
Our results show that the observed rapid rise
in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 can not be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar
variation is amplified.»
Variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (see Section 3.6.6 for a more detailed discussion) could account for some of the evolution of global and hemispheric mean temperatures during the instrumental period (Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1994; Andronova and Schlesinger, 2000; Delworth and Mann, 2000); Knight et al. (2005) estimate that variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation could account for up to 0.2 °C peak - to - trough variability in NH mean decadal tem
Variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (see Section 3.6.6 for a more detailed discussion) could account for some of the evolution of
global and hemispheric
mean temperatures during the instrumental period (Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1994; Andronova and Schlesinger, 2000; Delworth and Mann, 2000); Knight et al. (2005) estimate that
variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation could account for up to 0.2 °C peak - to - trough variability in NH mean decadal tem
variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation could account for up to 0.2 °C peak - to - trough variability
in NH
mean decadal
temperatures.
From the University of Southampton: New study finds
variations in global warming trend are caused by oceans New research has shown that natural
variations in global mean temperature are always forced by...
Changes
in global -
mean temperature induced by Earth's orbital
variations may be used to quantify the climate sensitivity.
On the time - varying trend
in global -
mean surface
temperature ``... we showed that the rapidity of the warming
in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~ 65 - year period) oscillatory
variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08 deg C per decade since ~ 1980.»
«These analyses suggest that a contribution from ENSO - e ffects to
global temperatures, when expressed as the cumulative sum of the SOI, can potentially account for 50 % of the
variation in global mean temperature in the last 50 years — a «large part» of warming, as claimed by McLean et al. [2009].
«These analyses suggest that a contribution from ENSO - e ffects to
global temperatures, when expressed as the cumulative sum of the SOI, can potentially account for 50 % of the
variation in global mean temperature in the last 50 years -LCB- a «large part» of warming, as claimed by McLean et al. [2009].»
e.g. «These analyses suggest that a contribution from ENSO - e ffects to
global temperatures, when expressed as the cumulative sum of the SOI, can potentially account for 50 % of the
variation in global mean temperature in the last 50 years — a «large part» of warming, as claimed by McLean et al. [2009].
Variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (see Section 3.6.6 for a more detailed discussion) could account for some of the evolution of global and hemispheric mean temperatures during the instrumental period; Knight et al. (2005) estimate that variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation could account for up to 0.2 °C peak - to - trough variability in NH mean decadal temperatur
Variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (see Section 3.6.6 for a more detailed discussion) could account for some of the evolution of
global and hemispheric
mean temperatures during the instrumental period; Knight et al. (2005) estimate that
variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation could account for up to 0.2 °C peak - to - trough variability in NH mean decadal temperatur
variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation could account for up to 0.2 °C peak - to - trough variability
in NH
mean decadal
temperatures.»
Let's look
in more detail at the paper's key figure, the one that looks at past and (forecast) future
global temperatures, «Hindcast / forecast decadal
variations in global mean temperature, as compared with observations and standard climate model projections» (click to enlarge)
For those who don't understand, this
means that the
variation in temperature can be of + 0.12 °C (
global warming) or -0.08 °C (
global cooling).