We don't know at precisely what point
various warming feedbacks (like methane clathrate release from the Arctic or methane release from beneath melting permafrost) will be triggered.
Not exact matches
The relative contributions of the
various feedbacks that make up climate sensitivity need not be the same going back to the LGM as in a world
warming relative to the pre-industrial climate.
The factors that determine this asymmetry are
various, involving ice albedo
feedbacks, cloud
feedbacks and other atmospheric processes, e.g., water vapor content increases approximately exponentially with temperature (Clausius - Clapeyron equation) so that the water vapor
feedback gets stronger the
warmer it is.
How could they answer that when no one even knows how much of the
warming is due to CO2 or methane and when there is absolutely no way to account for all of the
various feedbacks (notably, of course, including the ones that they haven't thought of or don't know about)?
Interested in status of latest estimate of when irreversible tipping point thresholds of
various cascading
feedback loops of global
warming might be exceeded...
In other words, let's see your base value for CO2 - induced
warming before we consider the influence of the
various positive and negative
feedbacks.
So you answer that «the climate system is profoundly complex with
various feedbacks and time lags that come into play, and can not be explained in term's of someone's simplistic expectations,» as an answer on the question why «this melting really was an indicator of Anthropogenic Global
Warming»?
The modeling and experimentation suggests that pumping CO2 into the atmosphere will have a
warming effect, though how CO2 interacts with the
various climate regulatory and
feedback processes is extremely complicated and there's a great deal of work to do.
The amount of
warming depends on
various feedback mechanisms.
This is the result of polar amplification -
warming at the tropics is less than
warming at the poles due to
various effects such as positive
feedback from ice albedo changes.
Ice / albedo, increasing temp and GHG outgassing from
various sinks, childbirth, breast feeding, blood clotting, «Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive
feedback to climate
warming..
And, of course, you're stating a strawman in the first place, climate models help with the understanding of
various details of climatology, but the basic understanding that CO2 is a GHG, that
warming temps increases the absolute humidity leading to a positive
feedback, etc etc would stand even if the complex climate models you disparage didn't exist.
In turn, the IPCC argues there are
various other positive
feedbacks that multiply the effect of the additional
warming from the CO2.
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