What you need to do is look at
the verified predictions made by climate models.
Not exact matches
Evolution
makes predictions about what we would expect to see in the fossil record, comparative anatomy, genetic sequences, geographical distribution of species, etc., and these
predictions have been
verified many times over.
If the theory allows one to
make predictions which are subsequently
verified, it is further strengthened.
Causality must be proved for each parameter, not by a reduction of the residuals and variance only, but by
making a
prediction and
verifying that a true manipulation of the factor (s) produces the expected results.
creationism has nothing at all and has never been
verified and can not
make any
prediction, it is not a theory any more than say which type of wood
makes a better magic wand.
These
predictions,
made using powerful computers, were
verified using highly precise measurements taken using an extremely sensitive technique called «cavity - ring down spectroscopy».
Then you can
make very clear
predictions about what certain changes mean and
verify those things experimentally.
I'm excited to have a theory of fairness for a free market economy that is analytical and quantitative, and
makes testable
predictions that can be
verified with real - world data on income inequality.»
The p - wave symmetry of SRO has never been fully
verified, partly hindered by the fact that SRO is a bulky crystal, which
makes it challenging to fabricate into the type of devices necessary to test theoretical
predictions.
This can mean a variety of things, but, most importantly, it means the model
makes predictions that can be
verified in a controlled experimental setting.
But it might
make other
predictions that can be
verified.
We can't actually detect quarks, but it doesn't matter; we know QCD is correct, because it
makes predictions that we can
verify.
Predictions related to the impact of pinatubo, post 1984 trends, the «satellite cooling» mismatch, lgm tropical sst, water vapor increases, ocean heat content etc have all been
made and
verified within a short time period.
Of course, there is that small matter of all those verifiable (and
verified)
predictions the scientists have
made.
So, Jacob, if you can show me a theory that
makes as much sense of Earth's climate and
makes as many
verified predictions as the current consensus model and which doesn't imply serious problems due to warming, I'll be the first to pat you on the back.
That is an excellent example of good science: based on measurements of carbon dioxide and temperature, and on our understanding from basic physics of the interactions between carbon dioxide and light, Hansen
made a bold
prediction that could be tested and
verified experimentally over time.
Models are
verified by
making correct
predictions.
The science has been peer reviewed, independently
verified, and the
predictions made by CRU have already come to pass.
It was falsifiable, and deliberately contained the seeds of its own potential destruction by
making predictions that could be
verified by experiment.
That is why
making a
prediction of what is going to happen 100 years from now, or something which is so vague that it is not obvious it has occurred like «climate Change» are not acceptable in Science as they can not be
verified.
Furthermore, if ONE Global Climate Model was
verified — if it produced useful
predictions (that's in advance and all...: — RRB --RRB- I'd be impressed and more likely to consider it a useful tools in unravelling our climate, assessing risk benefits, and in
making policy decisions.
Given the large uncertainties in the model input parameters as documented in Chapter 8 of the IPCC FAR 2007, the fall in the effective global temperature as published by the Hadley Centre and GSS for 2007/2008, which was not predicted by the models, why are there no definitive studies being
made of other model
predictions to
verify their accuracy?
Well, speaking only of Queensland, Chapter 11 of AR4 WG1, Regional Climate Projections, was very careful to
make no specific projections for Australia and Queensland until 2080 - 2099 -LRB-(fig. 11.17), by when only those under 30 now are likely to be alive to
verify whether its actual
prediction of NO FLOODS in the Western Pacific proved correct: ALL 21 of the models deployed to
make that
prediction actually forecast precipitation at LESS than the average in 1980 - 1999.
This climate modeling capability
made it possible to perform a real - time climate change
prediction (
verified by subsequent observations) of the global cooling and stratospheric heating (and return to normal) following to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption.
We think scientists should be using the working theory to
make predictions for the future that can be measured and
verified — preferably as clearly as possible in advance that success can be properly lauded.
If AGW is a testable hypothesis, it will
make predictions that can be agreed and
verified.
In particular, good models
make strong
predictions that can be
verified by previously unobserved data.