Hopefully much of the disagreement between different
versions of the temperature record can be resolved.
The original motivation for the project came from the fact that different
versions of the temperature record were showing substantially different short term trends.
The existence of two distinct cool biases in different
versions of the temperature record may of course have contributed to the fact that the problems went undetected.
Indeed, updates to an old
version of the temperature record (HadCRUT3) to include better Arctic data saw northern hemisphere temperatures rise by 0.1 degrees Celsius.
This allows you to construct your own
version of the temperature record, using either adjusted or unadjusted data for both the land and sea surface temperatures.
Every version of the temperature record is affected by at least one of these sources of bias, as shown in the Table 2.
At the start of the article I asked which existing
version of the temperature record was «right».
Not exact matches
The May
temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest 5 miles
of the atmosphere) was the second highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 0.99 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using UAH
version 5.6.
The March — May
temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest 5 miles
of the atmosphere) was the highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 1.30 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using
version 5.6.
The April
temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest 5 miles
of the atmosphere) was the highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 1.37 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using
version 5.6.
The June - August
temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest 5 miles
of the atmosphere) was the second highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 0.77 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using
version 5.6.
The August
temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest 5 miles
of the atmosphere) was the highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 0.85 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using UAH
version 5.6.
The June
temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest 5 miles
of the atmosphere) was the third highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 0.67 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using UAH
version 5.6.
The July
temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest 5 miles
of the atmosphere) tied with 1998 as the highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 0.79 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using UAH
version 5.6.
The January — May
temperature for the lower troposphere was the highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 1.33 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using
version 5.6.
The January — April
temperature for the lower troposphere was the highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 1.40 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using
version 5.6.
The January — September
temperature for the lower troposphere was the highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 1.12 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using
version 5.6.
The September
temperature for the lower troposphere (roughly the lowest 5 miles
of the atmosphere) was the highest in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 1.03 °F above the 1981 — 2010 average, as analyzed by the University
of Alabama in Huntsville * (UAH) using UAH
version 5.6.
After scientists have done the hard work
of working out these relations, it is possible to use one ice - core
record to represent broader regions IF you restrict consideration to the parts that are widely coherent, so it is O.K. to plot a smoothed
version of an Antarctic
temperature record against CO2 over long times and discuss the relation as if it is global, but a lot
of background is required.
On the allegation
of withholding station identifiers we find that CRU should have made available an unambiguous list
of the stations used in each
of the
versions of the Climatic Research Unit Land
Temperature Record (CRUTEM) at the time
of publication.
@ 183 it was shown that the global
temperature record does not immediately demonstrate a convincing BNO (R)(that is a «radiatively forced»
version of Judith Curry's Big Natural Oscillation) but it was also asserted that applying some judicious curve - fitting would render any such a demonstration inconclusive.
As the
temperature record only represents one particular region, they also plot two reconstructions
of Northern Hemisphere
temperature which I've reproduced below (I use a colour
version of the Moberg reconstruction with the instrumental
record included).
Here is the accepted view
of Northern Hemisphere
temperatures prior to the endless adjustments made these past 20/25 years to the
temperature record, which endless adjustments have rendered the modern
version of the land thermometer
record not fit for scientific purpose:
In my previous three articles on HadSST3, CRUTEM4 and HadCRUT4, I have given an overview
of the literature and data concerning the new datasets which comprise the Hadley / CRU
version of the instrumental
temperature record.
Then he used a number
of variables to create another curve which, when combined with the HHA curve, produces a curve very similar to a smoothed
version of the HADCRUT3
temperature record.
Carbon Brief produced a raw global
temperature record using using unadjusted ICOADS sea surface
temperature measurements gridded by the UK Hadley Centre and raw land
temperature measurements assembled by NOAA in
version 4
of the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN).
I do think that work by sceptics has thrown real doubts both on the
versions of the long term historical
temperature record depended on by the warmists and on the model predictions.
It is obviously important that CRU releases the adjusted
version (since this used to calculate the global
temperature anomalies), but it would also be beneficial if they could publish (if they have not) the original SMHI
record along with the documentation
of adjustments they have made to that.
He actually included a lengthy response by Steve to Crowley's challenge that Steve generate his own
version of a tree ring based
temperature record for the past few millenia.
Looking at three
versions of the global surface
temperature record, with their different behaviour over the last decade and a half, it is only natural to wonder «which is right?».
The bias in the other
versions of the global
temperature record due to change in observational platforms can be estimated from the difference between the raw and adjusted HadSST3 data, and is shown in Figure 2.
As to the question about documentation, the basic «GISS Surface
Temperature Analysis» page starts with a «Background» section whose first paragraph contains the sentence: «Input data for the analysis,..., is the unadjusted data
of GHCN, except that the USHCN station
records were replaced by a later corrected
version».
The blue points are the 1999
version of the GISS land + sea global average air
temperature record.
There are three main
versions of the instrumental
temperature record, HadCRUT3 from the UK meteorological office, GISTEMP from NASA, and the NCDC dataset from NOAA.
Taking in a broad consideration
of the issues, such as the benefit
of treating maximum and minimum
temperatures independently, it was decided that the instances
of maximum being below minimum in the analysis should be left in the
record as a known issue for the first
version of ACORN - SAT.
We can repeat our earlier observation that CET instrumental to 1659 - this time augmented by the reconstruction using historical
records to 1538, demonstrates a
temperature profile that looks quite different to significant periods
of the remainder
of the Northern Hemisphere if the official
version of extended climate - as epitomised by the «Hockey stick» - is taken as the appropriate set
of data which it should be measured against.
These datasets include: NOAA Climate Data
Record (CDR)
of Sea Surface
Temperature - WHOI,
Version 1.0 U.S. Monthly Extremes Global Historical Climatology Network — Monthly (GHCN - M)
Version 3 African Easterly Wave Climatology
Version 1 NOAA Climate Data
Record (CDR)
of Daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR),
Version 1.2 NOAA Climate Data
Record (CDR)
of Monthly Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR),
Version 2.2 - 1 Global Surface Summary
of the Day — GSOD Monthly Summaries
of the Global Historical Climatology Network — Daily (GHCN - D) I nternational Surface
Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface
Temperature Databank — Stage 1 Monthly International Surface
Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface
Temperature Databank — Stage 2 Monthly International Surface
Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface
Temperature Databank — Stage 3 Monthly International Surface
Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface
Temperature Databank — Stage 1 Daily... Continued
These datasets include: NOAA Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree Daily Sea Surface
Temperature (OISST) Analysis,
Version 2 AVHRR Pathfinder
Version 5.2 Level 3 Collated (L3C) Global 4 km Sea Surface
Temperature (SST) Climate Data
Record (CDR) for 1981 - 2010 NOAA Climate Data
Record (CDR)
of Gridded Satellite Data from ISCCP B1 (GridSat - B1) 11 micron Brightness
Temperature,
Version 2 NCDC Storm Events Database Coastal Economic Trends for Coastal Geographies Demographic Trends (1970 - 2010) for Coastal Geographies FEMA HAZUS Critical Facilities for Coastal Geographies Time - Series Data for Self - Employed Economic Activity Dependent on the Ocean and Great Lakes Economy for Counties, States, and the Nation between 2005 and 2012 Time - Series Data on the Ocean and Great Lakes Economy for Counties, States, and the Nation between 2005 and 2012 (Sector and Industry Level) Time - Series Data on the Ocean and Great Lakes Economy for Counties, States, and the Nation between 2005 and 2012 (Sector Level)... Continued
Just for fun, I calculated the «correlation» between the GISS
temperature versions of Tokyo and New York Central Park for all 1392 months for which the
records both exist.