Not exact matches
If one creates as scatter plot of the Shiller P / E
versus actual
subsequent 10 - year
market returns, one gets a nice scatter, but a good deal of noise as well.
The chart below shows this relationship using
market capitalization to corporate gross value added (blue, on an inverted log scale)
versus actual
subsequent 12 - year S&P 500 nominal total
returns (red).
Here's a chart from a recent Weekly
Market Comment showing the projections for 10 - year annual total
returns on the S&P 500
versus actual
subsequent 10 - year total
returns: