I would not interpret the currently
very flat yield curve as indicating a significant economic slowdown to come, for several reasons.
Wright's research seems to have been influential in Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's recent assessment that the current
very flat yield curve does not signify a coming significant economic slowdown.
Not exact matches
Achievement of these goals was considered by the HRC as
very challenging, even aggressive, given the expected modest economic growth for 2007 for the financial services industry, the impact and duration of the on - going
flat / inverted
yield curve (meaning short - term interest rates that are virtually equal to or exceed long - term interest rates, thus lowering profit margins for financial services companies that borrow cash at short - term rates and lend at long - term rates), potentially higher credit losses, fewer available high - quality, high -
yielding loans and investment opportunities, and a consumer shift from non-interest to interest - bearing deposits.
Traditionally, global equities do not peak until after the
yield curve has inverted, he adds, but «given the
very low - rate nature of this cycle, we'd expect a
flat curve to weigh more heavily on sentiment and encourage a more defensive rotation.»
Though in the long run investors in First Marblehead will likely make money, the short run may end up being
very rocky with potential cancellations on the horizon and a
flat yield curve.
In a
flat or humped
yield curve, the shorter - and longer - term
yields are
very close to each other, which is also a predictor of an economic transition.