Volcanoes can — and do — influence the global climate over time periods of a few years but this is achieved through the injection of sulfate aerosols into the high reaches of the atmosphere during
the very large volcanic eruptions that occur sporadically each century.
A string of
very large volcanic eruptions or long period of extremely low solar activity would carry some significance but are not likely occurrances within the frame of, say, 50 years.
When we tried to reconstruct past climate patterns we learned that there was this interesting relationship between past
very large volcanic eruptions and the timing of some of the large El Nino events in past centuries.
Note that in the last piece, Tamino points out the coincidence of two
very large volcanic eruptions early in the «dalton minimum,» which as many have noted, may account for the oddities of the weather more than the solar magnetic activity.
(For those «coming in in the middle» — assuming any such are still reading — this subthread began with a link I provided discussing the vulnerability our complex society bears WRT to
very large volcanic eruptions, in the context of the robustness of some Stone Age populations who «thrived» during the event — albeit at a considerable distance!)
Volcanoes can — and do — influence the global climate over time periods of a few years but this is achieved through the injection of sulfate aerosols into the high reaches of the atmosphere during
the very large volcanic eruptions that occur sporadically each century.
«We have found that the deposition of sulfur compounds in the Antarctic after
very large volcanic eruptions in the tropics may be lower than previously thought,» the atmospheric researcher summarizes the findings of the study which has just been published in the current issue of the international «Journal of Geophysical Research — Atmosphere.»
Not exact matches
In fact, it is possible to have some frost rings without any evidence of explosive volcanism, presumably occurring due to extremes in local weather, but, as shown above, they do seem to record
large volcanic eruptions in recent times
very well indeed.
And a conclusion; «There is
very high confidence that industrial era natural forcing is a small fraction of the anthropogenic forcing except for brief periods following
large volcanic eruptions.»
In addition things like
large volcanic eruptions are not visible in Nino3.4 but
very visible in global SST.
The secondary effects of all of the above are
very likely to bring on the biggest Earth quakes and
largest volcanic eruptions observed for 200 years, the trends of these events have been rising since the early 1990s.
Apologies its was the wrong quote its this one from Abstract of paper above «
Volcanic eruption Mass extinction Tipping pointMethane
Large volumes of SO2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in
very rapid warming.
Short - term cyclical factors (ENSO, solar variability, etc.), noisy annual variation, and unpredictable factors like the precise amount of sulfates we're going to emit or whether we're going to have any
large volcanic eruptions make predictions over
very short time periods (like a decade) next to worthless.
There is
very high confidence that models reproduce the general features of the global - scale annual mean surface temperature increase over the historical period, including the more rapid warming in the second half of the 20th century, and the cooling immediately following
large volcanic eruptions...