Tomb Raider, released earlier this month received
some very warm feedback from both critics and fans alike.
Not exact matches
«If you can time your emissions so they have the least impact then you will not trigger these
very sensitive regions to start
warming by this ice albedo
feedback process.»
If this is correct, then we could be seeing be a
very limited negative
feedback from global
warming just now which increases hydroxyl concentrations which in turn breaks down the methane faster.
The latter has already begun producing methane and CO2 in the Arctic, starting a
feedback process which may lead to uncontrollable,
very dangerous global
warming, akin to that which occurred at the PETM.
Positive
feedback from customers and fans is
very encouraging to us in our day - to - day design work for the MINI brand,» explains Anders
Warming, Head of MINI Design.
In general, models suggest that they are a positive
feedback — i.e. there is a relative increase in high clouds (which
warm more than they cool) compared to low clouds (which cool more than they
warm)-- but this is quite variable among models and not
very well constrained from data.
And those initial
warming events can trigger even greater
warming because of the «
feedback loops» associated with the melting of ice and the potential release of methane (a
very strong greenhouse gas).»
With even further
warming more hydrates are released, additional global soil
feedback (extreme soil respiration rates, compost bomb instability) and weathering becomes a driver, now Ocean
very stratified, maybe things like permanent El Nino, weather systems probably move
very slow — everything gets stuck due to lack of perturbed ocean, no or
very little frozen water at the poles.
«If you can time your emissions so they have the least impact then you will not trigger these
very sensitive regions to start
warming by this ice albedo
feedback process.»
It is also
very crucial to include the most definitive estimates of additional carbon cycle
feedbacks that have already been locked in due to current (and future)
warming.
Note also that the global
warming trend has not been terribly strong over the last decade, so inferring a negative
feedback to surface temperature change is a bit odd to me, particularly when the
feedback would have to be
very sensitive.
If C02 is the largest single contributing factor to the Greenhouse Effect (because supposedly water vapor is only involved as a
feedback to primary chemistry involving C02 itself), and C02 lags temperature increases (as has been stated on this
very blog), how has the Earth ever returned to colder glacial conditions following periods of
warming?
The snow and ice
feedback is generally positive and becomes
very large at
very cold temperatures; obviously it approaches zero when the temperature is sufficiently
warm that
very little snow or ice remain and when they occur when and where there is little solar radiation to reflect.
The findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive ice — temperature
feedbacks have emerged in the Arctic15, increasing the chances of further rapid
warming and sea ice loss, and will probably affect polar ecosystems, ice - sheet mass balance and human activities in the Arctic...» *** This is the heart of polar amplification and has
very little to do with your stated defintion of amplifying the effects of
warming going on at lower latitudes.
bozzza - The differences in the Arctic are perhaps 1/4 the ocean thermal mass as global ocean averages, small overall size (the smallest ocean), being almost surrounded by land (which
warms faster), more limited liquid interchanges due to bottlenecking than the Antarctic, and
very importantly considerable susceptibility to positive albedo
feedbacks; as less summer ice is present given current trends, solar energy absorbed by the Arctic ocean goes up
very rapidly.
In climate change experiments with our LES framework, the Cu regime shows a modest positive shortwave
feedback under
warming, while the Sc and Sc - over-Cu regimes both show strong but state - dependent positive shortwave
feedbacks, with a possible break - up of Sc layers in
very warm climates.
But the known clathrate store off the US East Coast is
very significant and large scale releases could result in much more widespread anoxia, acidification, and provide a substantial atmospheric heating
feedback to human - caused
warming.
The latter has already begun producing methane and CO2 in the Arctic, starting a
feedback process which may lead to uncontrollable,
very dangerous global
warming, akin to that which occurred at the PETM.
DK12 used ocean heat content (OHC) data for the upper 700 meters of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate of OHC increase has slowed in recent years (the
very short timeframe of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods of «climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC data indicate that the net climate
feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount of global
warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, including
feedbacks) is low.
Especially when one considers that it is just a single instance of many possible amplifying carbon
feedbacks set off by a
very rapid human
warming.
Given that the published track records of some of these
feedbacks show a
very significant potential contribution to
warming in the next 50 years, the DDP assertion of having a 66 % chance of staying under 2.0 C by continuing anthro -
warming for 135 years looks to me like sheer wishful thinking.
Their fellow activists on the Panel say that
very nearly all of the
feedbacks from the small
warming that may be caused by our enriching the atmosphere with plant food act over timescales of hours to — at most — decades.
It is
very hard to put a percentage on how much of the ice is being lost from
warmer water versus
warmer air versus
feedback from less ice and more SW entering the water.
In recent decades, much research on these topics has raised the questions of «tipping points» and «system flips,» where
feedbacks in the system compound to rapidly cause massive reorganization of global climate over
very short periods of time — a truncation or reorganization of the thermohaline circulation or of food web structures, for instance, caused by the loss of sea ice or
warming ocean temperatures.
Schaeffer's 2014 paper — which was
very blunt in its
warmings of the Permafrost Melt
Feedback outputs using up much of the carbon budget tacitly adopted in Paris — looks highly understated in view of recent papers.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans
warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to
warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive
feedback: or the water
warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands»
warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters
warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is
very small worldwide, so the global effect is
very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small
warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get
very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
Per the IPCC's global
warming hypothesis, at the
very top of the troposphere, above the equator region, is the location (12 km, 200hPa @ 20 ° N - 20 ° S) that triggers a positive climate
feedback, which produces the mythical runaway, tipping point of accelerated, dangerous global
warming, which of course is unequivocal and irrefutable, except when it isn't.
And, since IPCC assumed essentially constant relative humidity with
warming to arrive at the water vapor
feedback and it appears that RH decreases with
warming (Minschwaner + Dessler 2005, NOAA radiosonde and satellite humidity records), the water vapor
feedback is
very likely too high by around 0.3 C to 0.6 C, bringing the overall adjusted ECS to roughly 0.9 C to 1.2 C.
He has published two papers stating that climate change is not serious: a 2001 paper hypothesizing that clouds would provide a negative
feedback to cancel out global
warming, and a 2009 paper claiming that climate sensitivity (the amount of
warming caused by a doubling of carbon dioxide) was
very low.
Or
very own Steve Short seems to subscribe to Gaia as having the ability to limit
warming use negative
feedbacks.
That's all
very interesting, but the new alarmism is that
warm air holds more moisture, giving the required water vapor
feedbacks in order to make the world scary hot, instead of the piddling little lukewarm, of a non
feedback, co2 stand alone
warming.
Global
warming would seem to be a much greater threat than we thought, with
very negative results from the
feedback loop of
warming influencing carbon dioxide production.
They come up with all kinds of hypothetical
feedback mechanisms involving more natural aerosol emissions in response to global
warming: Dimethylsulfide from marine phytoplankton (although a
very intriguing possibility, this has never been confirmed to be a significant
feedback mechanism, and there is ample evidence to the contrary, which is omitted from the report), biological aerosols (idem), carbonyl sulfide (idem), nitrous oxide (idem), and iodocompounds (idem), about which they write the following: «Iodocompounds — created by marine algae — function as cloud condensation nuclei, which help create new clouds that reflect more incoming solar radiation back to space and thereby cool the planet.»
Most of the
warming in climate models is not from CO2 directly but from
feedback effects, and the evidence for strong positive climate
feedback on temperature is
very weak (to the point of non-existence) as compared to the evidence of greenhouse gas
warming (yes, individual effects like ice cover melting are undeniably positive
feedback effects, the question is as to the net impact of all such effects).
These would kick out the whole concept of a positive water vapor
feedback with
warming, so would be
very embarrassing for IPCC.
Hunter: While I understand why water vapor is deemed a
feedback in that is does contribute to the variability of
warming, to stop there is
very misleading.
If this is natural, so if a «
warming regime» (the word choice may indicate bias, by the way) is changed unforced into a cooling regime you may
very have proven that a positive
feedback mechanism due to water vapor is impossible.
(2) It made the point (not an original point, but on the other hand one that is not widely known even among the cognoscenti) that water vapour
feedback in the global
warming story is
very largely determined by the response of water vapour in the middle and upper troposphere.
The majority of the
warming, the amount that converts the forecast from nuisance to catastrophe, comes from
feedback which is
very poorly understood and not at all subject to any sort of consensus.
In a
very real sense, the current
warming period is a net biological
feedback to the warmth of an interglacial.
So we have the peculiar situation that both of these approaches try to claim that climate sensitivity is small, but the NIPCC approach is to claim that aerosol forcing is
very large (thus providing a negative
feedback to
warming), whereas the Lindzen approach is to claim that aerosol forcing is
very small (thus necessitating a small sensitivity to explain the observed
warming so far).
Instead of the proposed positive
feedback producing ever faster atmospheric temperature increases, the plot reveals a
very strong
warming trend that accelerated during the 2015/16 El Nino phenomenon, which then quickly decelerated to a per century trend of 4.3 degrees Celsius - and, in the recent past, similar deceleration patterns have lead to outright negative per century cooling trends.
What happened in the Arctic, was a slow,
very slow and gradual decrease in cooling, caused by progressively longer
warmer seasons, with a
feedback loop of
warm air reducing albedo, with reduced albedo increasing
warm air.
I think the case for not only CO2 attribution, but positive
feedback is strong enough to merit «
very likely», mainly because of the gap to explain between the no -
feedback response and the actual
warming, which is too large for any decadal internal variability so far detected.
For example, the argument that follows
very substantially from the extent of continental shelf that there is within the Arctic Basin and, therefore, the particular relationship that
warming on that relatively shallow sea has on trapped methane - for example, the emergence of methane plumes in that continental shelf, apparently in quite an anomalous way - leading possibly to the idea that there may be either tipping points there or catastrophic
feedback mechanisms there, which could then have other effects on things, such as more stabilised caps like the Greenland ice cap and so on.
I think research on negative
feedbacks is
very important, because they could help lessen the
warming effect of GHGs.
The science that Earth is dominated by net positive
feedbacks that increase modest greenhouse gas
warming to catastrophic levels is
very debatable.
I suspect that given the paucity of knowledge in relation to clouds and aerosols (not to mention cycles)... the original X factors for the equation ranged through values that at the lower end produced no scary
warming scenarios for the future doubling (ie at or lower than 1.5 C) to those that were
very scary at 3 - 4.5 C — or even 6 C if you add strong
feedbacks from melting ice, permafrost and emissions of methane.
Since the theoretical physics behind GH
warming only predict a
very small effect of doubling CO2, all sorts of «positive
feedbacks» are contrived to make this GH
warming appear less insignificant (our recent exchange).