The underlying fund mix will be a reflection of Tom Bradley's
views on market valuations and asset mix.
We combine our medium term expectations of fixed income asset class risk and return with shorter term
views on market valuation, cyclical developments and liquidity considerations, matched against the Fund's objectives to develop appropriate asset allocation of the Fund.
Not exact matches
David Kotok:
Valuations Are Extreme in Our
View Cumberland Advisors chairman and CIO David Kotok discusses major
market predictions with Bloomberg's Alix Steel and Scarlet Fu
on «What'd You Miss?»
In my
view, investors who
view current
valuations as «justified relative to interest rates» are really saying that a decade of zero total returns
on stocks is perfectly adequate compensation for the risk of a 45 - 55 %
market loss over the completion of the current
market cycle - a decline that would historically be merely run - of - the - mill given current
valuations, and that certainly can not be precluded by appealing to low interest rates.
Valuations on U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) look more attractive than those of developed -
market counterparts and are poised to benefit from an actual inflation comeback, in our
view.
In my
view, the necessary objective is to accept
market risk when the likely return / risk profile is attractive, based
on observable measures of
valuation and
market action, and to avoid, hedge, or diversify away those risks that don't carry attractive return / risk profiles
on average.
Our investment positions don't rely
on these
views, being driven primarily by prevailing
valuations and
market action, but the potential for investors to abruptly shift their thesis translates into a potential for
market action to change abruptly as well, and that's not something we can afford to ignore.
While we often have very strong
views about long - term and full - cycle
market outcomes (based
on valuation measures that we find strongly correlated with those outcomes in
market cycles across history), we rarely have pointed short - term
market expectations.
The Paradox of the Zero Bound Subpar Economic Recovery Gets Premium
Market Valuation Wall Street Earnings Expectations Ignore Economic Divergences The Great Divergence An Update
on International
Market Valuations Business Cycles, Election Cycles, and Potential Risks An Update
on Valuations and Forward Earnings Assumptions Bond Yields, Earnings Yields, and Inflation A
View from the NBER Recession Indicators Three Observations
on Third Quarter Earnings Forward Looking Measures Still Don't Provide Evidence for a V - Shaped Recovery This Earnings Season, Watch Sales Forward Earnings Imply a Return to Near - Record Profit Margins Without Phoenix Stocks, Volume Continues to Contract Is the Job
Market Ready for a Recovery?
Unlike my individual company stock picks, I obviously have no specific Fair Value Price Target — I'm relying
on my bullish oil / commodity
view, continued Russian growth (and financial strength), and an improvement in
market sentiment and
valuation multiples.
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