I'm very wary that the markets may be starting to question Fed credibility, the expression of which is downside
volatility in bond prices.
All else equal,
volatility in bond prices from interest rate moves is higher the longer you go out on the maturity and duration spectrum and the lower the level of interest rates.
Not exact matches
Duration is a calculation, expressed
in years, that measures a
bond's coupon - weighted term - weighted
price volatility.
If Brexit - like sentiment
in other nations leads to restrictions on the flow of trade and labor, he adds, «that is going to create greater uncertainty and
volatility» — at a time when some commentators believe that global stock and
bond prices are overdue for a tumble.
All markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and
bond markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil
prices, and will turn to this afternoon's FOMC Meeting Statement followed by reports tomorrow on UK PMI, Eurozone PPI, CPI, US Challenger Job Cuts, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Markit Services PMI, ISM Services, Durable Goods and Factory Orders for near term direction.
In actuality, while the skill set necessary to make intelligent decisions can take years to acquire, the core matter is straightforward: Buy ownership of good businesses (stocks) or loan money to good credits (
bonds), paying a
price sufficient to reasonably assure you of a satisfactory return even if things don't work out particularly well (a margin of safety), and then give yourself a long enough stretch of time (at an absolute minimum, five years) to ride out the
volatility.
All markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and
bond markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil
prices, and will turn to reports tomorrow on Japanese PMI, UK PMI, US Vehicle Sales, Markit Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing for near term guidance.
Bonds rated below investment grade may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those of other securities, including greater credit risk and
price volatility in the secondary market.
All markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and
bond markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil
prices, and will turn to reports tomorrow on Japan's Leading Index and Machine Tool Orders, German IFO, US Case - Shiller Home
Price Index, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence for near term guidance.
With market
volatility hitting multi-decade lows, junk
bond yields also at record lows, the median
price / revenue ratio of S&P 500 constituents at a record high well - beyond 2000 levels, and the most strenuously overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we define, I'm increasingly concerned about the potential for an abrupt «air pocket»
in the
prices of risky assets that could attend even a modest upward shift
in risk premiums.
Shorter time frames are most important
in bonds since shortened maturities can reduce
price volatility and improve liquidity.
But, over time, the longer central banks create liquidity to suppress short - run
volatility, the more they will feed
price bubbles
in equity,
bond, and other asset markets.»
A strong association between cortisol levels and
price volatility as indicated by
bond futures has previously been reported
in financial traders27.
While base rates kept at or close to zero for almost seven years and three massive asset - buying programs by the Fed have undoubtedly helped stabilize the US (and world) economy during and after the recession that followed the global financial crisis, the continuation of expansionary monetary policies is now supporting a growing excess of global liquidity that has been distorting the market signals sent by stock and
bond prices and thus contributing to the growing
volatility seen
in recent weeks.
Central bank
bond - buying measures
in most of the world have helped to increase liquidity, support asset
prices, and smooth
volatility.
High yield
bonds (
bonds rated below investment grade) may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those of other securities, including greater credit risk,
price volatility, and limited liquidity
in the secondary market.
Investments
in high - yield («junk»)
bonds involve greater risk of
price volatility, illiquidity, and default than higher - rated debt securities.
All markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and
bond markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil
prices, and will turn to tomorrow's much awaited US Payroll Report for near term direction..
All markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and
bond markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil
prices, and will turn to this afternoon's Commitment of Traders Report, followed by reports Monday on Chinese PMI, German CPI and Retail Sales, US Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index for near term direction.
All markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and
bond markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil
prices, and will turn to earnings from Apple after the bell today, and reports tomorrow on Japanese PMI, Chinese Caixin PMI, Eurozone GDP, PMI, Unemployment, US MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Oil Inventories, and the FOMC Meeting Statement for near term direction.
What also is not too surprising is that with the initial
volatility we've seen
in bond prices since May, retail investors have hit the sell button with little hesitation.
The
volatility we are seeing
in bond prices is a result of lack of clarity and specifics.
Bonds experience
price volatility in response to various factors.
This means that investors
in high yield municipal
bond funds should be willing to accept much higher
volatility in both the share
price of the fund and the income stream that it provides.
Secondly, they are lower
volatility, which means that investors can cash
in their holdings more regularly without having to worry about the
price actions
in the
bond market.
Then, as implied
volatility fell, credit spreads did as well, and the
prices of our
bonds rose, so
in the spring of 2002, we reversed the trade and then some.
In general, stocks are subject to greater price fluctuations and volatility than bonds and can decline significantly in value in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic development
In general, stocks are subject to greater
price fluctuations and
volatility than
bonds and can decline significantly
in value in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic development
in value
in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic development
in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments.
Recently at a panel discussion that I participated, one topic we talked about was if the
bond price volatility in Asia is an obstacle to the investors.
At the same time commodities, with relatively lower
volatility in its
pricing compared to equity and
bonds, provides an equally effective option
in portfolio diversification.
It is invested primarily
in the credit market, not so much
in government
bonds because government
bond yields are so low, but we're looking for absolute returns even if interest rates go up, so some of the portfolio, a significant piece of it actually, is floating rate, so if interest rates go up, you just get higher cash flows, which will support higher returns, and the rest of the portfolio is
in relatively short maturity
bonds, which will have some
price volatility and if there's bad market conditions, will have temporary losses, so the goal is to offer something that is absolute returns.
Invests
in longer - maturity
bonds than many peers, which may provide higher levels of tax - exempt income1 and greater
price volatility.
What also is not too surprising is that with the initial
volatility we've seen
in bond prices since May, retail investors have hit the sell button with little hesitation.
Investments
in high - yield («junk»)
bonds involve greater risk of
price volatility, illiquidity, and default than higher - rated debt securities.
The
volatility we are seeing
in bond prices is a result of lack of clarity and specifics.
Improving High - Yield
Bond Portfolio Returns Investors in corporate credit, especially high - yield bonds, tend to face shorter cycles of booms and busts than do government bond investors, and therefore have more frequent opportunities, as a result of year - over-year price volatility, to advantageously position their portfol
Bond Portfolio Returns Investors
in corporate credit, especially high - yield
bonds, tend to face shorter cycles of booms and busts than do government
bond investors, and therefore have more frequent opportunities, as a result of year - over-year price volatility, to advantageously position their portfol
bond investors, and therefore have more frequent opportunities, as a result of year - over-year
price volatility, to advantageously position their portfolios.
In the 15 - year period through 5/31/2015, stocks exhibited 4 times the amount of
price vacillation (a.k.a.
volatility) than
bonds.
But, there is
volatility in the
prices of
bonds and stocks which increase the risk of an investor.
An investment
in high yield stock and
bonds involve certain risks such as market risk,
price volatility, liquidity risk and risk of default.
Duration takes into account a
bond's interest payments
in measuring
bond price volatility and is stated
in years.
Stresses
in the repo market are amplifying
price swings
in government
bonds and related debt markets at a time when many investors are reshuffling their portfolios around new interest - rate expectations, following a period of low
volatility, traders and analysts...
In fact, when
volatility is
priced into that investment opportunity, whether it is a
bond or an equity, but I'll stick to equities, because that's my area of expertise, that actually you can generate some very good rates of return indeed with very low risk.
The lack of
volatility in the equity,
bond and currency markets has brought traders to the cryptocurrency markets which has helped generate whipsaw
price action.
In turn, credit rating firm Moody's helped
price the instrument by providing data to generate yield curves and
price the
volatility of ethereum into the structure of the
bond itself.