While 2017 is winding down with
volatility levels at historical lows, a calmness has remained in the market for quite some time.
While the early - 2017 Federal Reserve minutes «expressed concern [about] the low level of implied volatility in equity markets,» it is worth noting that the SPX implied
volatility levels at both 80 % and 90 % moneyness (corresponding with out - of - the - money puts used for portfolio protection) generally were much higher than the VIX levels.
Not exact matches
Investors need to be more «forensic» about their portfolios given current
levels of
volatility, Bill Street, head of investments EMEA
at State Street Global Advisors, said.
Investors» best bet is to pick stocks that will perform
at that
level and stay solvent amid
volatility.
At companies where communication was clear, constant, and connected across all
levels, the natural
volatility of a dynamic environment proved less and also more manageable.
«This analysis does show that it usually takes some time to trade
at low
levels of
volatility after a spike to historically elevated
levels.
The S&P 500
Volatility Index, or VIX, surged higher, rising above 50
at one point last Tuesday, one of the highest
levels ever recorded.
The most common measure used to assess
volatility in the U.S. is the VIX index, which has been persistently
at low
levels for the past year.
When asked if he was worried about U.S. shale producers ramping production and eclipsing the recent international cuts, Novak said, «Undoubtedly the joint action by many countries to achieve the balance and to reduce the output are aimed
at giving stability to the market and as a result we see a great
level of investment, lower
volatility, prices stabilizing
at a certain
level, which does play out to move investment going into shale production so one needs to assess the overall supply and demand balance.»
The Cboe
Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered to be the best gauge of fear in the market, hit its lowest
level since Feb. 1 and traded more than 11.5 percent lower
at 14.62.
All of that increases market
volatility,
at both an index and a company
level, says Paul Moroz, Mawer Investment Management's deputy chief investment officer.
With the potential for additional
volatility and rate rises on the horizon, credit assets are less attractive
at these
levels.
But longer maturities also lead to higher
volatility, which is actually even higher
at lower interest rate
levels.
The CBOE Market
Volatility Index ($ VIX) is a contrarian index that essentially measures the level of fear in the market at any given time (which is based on market vo
Volatility Index ($ VIX) is a contrarian index that essentially measures the
level of fear in the market
at any given time (which is based on market
volatilityvolatility).
While it's tempting to buy
volatility at these low
levels, history shows that in the absence of a catalyst,
volatility can stay low for extended periods.
Maximum employment does not mean zero unemployment, as
at any given time people there is a certain
level of
volatility as people vacate and start new jobs.
With market
volatility hitting multi-decade lows, junk bond yields also
at record lows, the median price / revenue ratio of S&P 500 constituents
at a record high well - beyond 2000
levels, and the most strenuously overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we define, I'm increasingly concerned about the potential for an abrupt «air pocket» in the prices of risky assets that could attend even a modest upward shift in risk premiums.
With Group of Seven (G7) sovereign bond yields
at historically low
levels, some income - seeking investors have turned to higher -
volatility securities like dividend - paying stocks in an attempt to capture additional income.
Today's realized
levels of
volatility stand
at historically low
levels — even for a low - vol regime such as the one we see persisting today.
Long bonds will end up being a very volatile investment
at some point once rates or inflation rise from current
levels, but intermediate - term bonds should continue to dampen stock market
volatility.
The
Volatility Index (VIX) got crushed, finishing
at the lowest
level, near 15, since the crash in early February.
This high
level of
volatility gives investors the opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy
at an artificially low price.
We believe the recent downside
volatility offers a good opportunity to put money to work
at better valuation
levels.
At this point, we would find it difficult to imagine that we will return to the prior record low
levels of market
volatility.
Investment advisory bearishness remains
at a low 30 %
level, and the CBOE
volatility index is ominously low as well.
Ponzi schemes» promised returns are
at a
level that you can get only with lots of variability and
volatility.
Bonds exhibit much higher
volatility at lower
levels of interest rates.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange
Volatility Index slipped 5 percent today to 12.11, closing for a second day
at its lowest
level in a month.
Assuming Morgan Stanley's long - term forecasts are met with average
levels of
volatility, investors are looking
at a much flatter efficient frontier.
We have a saying that «when the CBOE
Volatility Index1 (VIX Index) is low it's time to go» — the VIX is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge, and when it's
at low
levels, we think it could be a prudent time to move a little more out of risk assets.
We have been
at the same price for over a month, but it's terrific to see the
volatility finally kick in & with any hot and dry weather or excessive rain you will see prices crack the $ 4
level quickly.
Volatility has been relentlessly low over the last several months as we are right near yearly support
at the 115
level and I would be surprised if that area were breached.
Subsequent to the election, the VIX index of
volatility closed
at its lowest
level in over two decades.
What are the potential conditions required to keep
volatility at historically low, if not record low,
levels?
Although US Treasuries have been sliding since the beginning of the year, the uncertainty and
volatility that we have seen in the past few weeks have pushed yields back down, forcing 10 - year Treasuries to close last week
at 2.77 % — a
level far away from the psychological 3 %
level many have been waiting for.
Both the VIX
volatility index and the «put / call» ratio on the options market are signalling the sort of complacency
levels seen
at past peaks.
In recent months, implied
volatility in foreign exchange markets has remained
at relatively elevated
levels for some currencies, reflecting the large movements in currencies that have taken place.
Interest rate risk is worth considering since
volatility is heightened
at lower yield
levels.
In fact, the CBOE
Volatility Index (VIX) traded at its lowest level in decades for much of the year.1 Known as the fear gauge, the VIX reflects the market's short - term outlook for stock price v
Volatility Index (VIX) traded
at its lowest
level in decades for much of the year.1 Known as the fear gauge, the VIX reflects the market's short - term outlook for stock price
volatilityvolatility.
Looking
at realized returns over the past month accessible via Bloomberg data, annualized
volatility on the S&P 500 Index is above 30 percent, triple its early August
level.
In the past year a number of news reporters and others have asked if the CBOE
Volatility Index ® (VIX ®) was
at an unusually «low»
level in light of all the worldwide geopolitical uncertainties.
Over the period that includes the commodity supercycle dating back to 1995, the efficient frontier would have arrived
at a very different conclusion: potentially much higher allocations to Canadian stocks
at higher
levels of
volatility.
daily closing
levels were 12.6 for VIX Index, and 10.0 for the 30 - trading - day implied
volatility of
at - the - money SPX options.
Data for the last 60 years demonstrates that adding small stocks, foreign stocks, real estate and emerging - market stocks to a portfolio generally reduces the
level of
volatility or risk, and
at the same time increases the portfolio's return.
* Finally, if implied
volatility perks up from its current slumber and spikes to higher
levels, that can inflate the profit potential (
at least prior to expiration) of this trade.
I'd argue that tracking organic content
at a page
level, rather than an individual keyword
level, makes a lot more sense given the recent increases in keyword ranking
volatility.
Volatility has seemingly stabilized over the last two weeks, albeit
at slightly elevated
levels.
Looking
at the short term
volatility rather than the long time development of stock is according to Warren Buffet one of the most common mistakes among investors on all
levels.
Examples of these risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to the impact of: adverse general economic and related factors, such as fluctuating or increasing
levels of unemployment, underemployment and the
volatility of fuel prices, declines in the securities and real estate markets, and perceptions of these conditions that decrease the
level of disposable income of consumers or consumer confidence; adverse events impacting the security of travel, such as terrorist acts, armed conflict and threats thereof, acts of piracy, and other international events; the risks and increased costs associated with operating internationally; our expansion into and investments in new markets; breaches in data security or other disturbances to our information technology and other networks; the spread of epidemics and viral outbreaks; adverse incidents involving cruise ships; changes in fuel prices and / or other cruise operating costs; any impairment of our tradenames or goodwill; our hedging strategies; our inability to obtain adequate insurance coverage; our substantial indebtedness, including the ability to raise additional capital to fund our operations, and to generate the necessary amount of cash to service our existing debt; restrictions in the agreements governing our indebtedness that limit our flexibility in operating our business; the significant portion of our assets pledged as collateral under our existing debt agreements and the ability of our creditors to accelerate the repayment of our indebtedness;
volatility and disruptions in the global credit and financial markets, which may adversely affect our ability to borrow and could increase our counterparty credit risks, including those under our credit facilities, derivatives, contingent obligations, insurance contracts and new ship progress payment guarantees; fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; overcapacity in key markets or globally; our inability to recruit or retain qualified personnel or the loss of key personnel; future changes relating to how external distribution channels sell and market our cruises; our reliance on third parties to provide hotel management services to certain ships and certain other services; delays in our shipbuilding program and ship repairs, maintenance and refurbishments; future increases in the price of, or major changes or reduction in, commercial airline services; seasonal variations in passenger fare rates and occupancy
levels at different times of the year; our ability to keep pace with developments in technology; amendments to our collective bargaining agreements for crew members and other employee relation issues; the continued availability of attractive port destinations; pending or threatened litigation, investigations and enforcement actions; changes involving the tax and environmental regulatory regimes in which we operate; and other factors set forth under «Risk Factors» in our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10 - K and subsequent filings by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The MSCI ACWI closed
at a record high 61 times, and 30 - day realized
volatility of the S&P 500 Index hit its lowest
level since the early 1960s.