As you may have guessed, cash will also have some impact on
the volatility of stock portfolios as well, which gets to our next question.
Not exact matches
His expectation is that the overall
volatility of a
portfolio 30 percent in short - term bonds and 70 percent in
stocks is going to be on par with one that is 40 percent invested in a fund tracking the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate index and 60 percent in
stocks.
These types
of funds or
stocks are «for people who are looking to lower the
volatility of their allocation, while maintaining the same amount
of equity exposure,» says Peter Kashanek, a
portfolio manager with Lazard Asset Management.
So bonds work as a
volatility reducer to the
stock portion
of your
portfolio.
«Market
volatility should be a reminder for you to review your investments regularly and make sure you consider an investing strategy with exposure to different areas
of the markets — U.S. small and large caps, international
stocks, investment - grade bonds — to help match the overall risk in your
portfolio to your personality and goals,» says Dowd.
Consider this simple example with a three - instrument
portfolio comprised
of a S&P 500 ETF, a long - term bond ETF and a cash - proxy ETF.1 Based on daily returns since 2010, the annualized
volatility on the cash proxy (a short - term bond ETF) is effectively zero, compared to 16 % and 15 % for the
stock and bond ETFs.
Over the past 20 years, 86 %
of the
volatility of a 60/40
portfolio has come from
stocks.
The end result
of this is that
portfolios consisting
of more cash - generating dividend
stocks tend to have far less
volatility and suffer gentler falls than their counterparts.
Before the end
of April, when the market started its gut - wrenching descent, «the combination
of return generation and risk diversification was part
of a broader virtuous circle for fixed income, which also included significant inflows to the asset class and direct support from central banks,» El - Erian writes at the start
of his viewpoint, noting that in addition to delivering solid returns with lower
volatility relative to
stocks, the inclusion
of fixed income in diversified asset allocations also helped to reduce overall
portfolio risk.
In his June 2015 paper entitled «Low Turnover: a Virtue
of Low
Volatility», Pim van Vliet investigates the lower limit of turnover for a low - volatility stock portfolio in
Volatility», Pim van Vliet investigates the lower limit
of turnover for a low -
volatility stock portfolio in
volatility stock portfolio in two ways.
His low -
volatility portfolios consist
of the 30 %
of stocks with the lowest standard deviations
of monthly total returns during the preceding 36 months, reformed monthly.
He also models the costs
of maintaining low -
volatility stock portfolios.
Second, he directly relates turnover and
volatility reduction for an equally weighted
portfolio that: (1) initially selects the 500
of 3,000 liquid global
stocks with the lowest weekly
volatility over the prior three years; and, (2) each subsequent month rebalances
stocks that have at least doubled their baseline
portfolio weight and sells
stocks when they fall out
of the top X %
of the
volatility ranking, with X varying from 20 % (baseline) to 90 %.
In her May 2016 paper entitled «Demystifying Pairs Trading: The Role
of Volatility and Correlation», Stephanie Riedinger investigates how
stock pair correlation and summed
volatilities influence pair selection, pair return and
portfolio return.
If you assume that a diversified
portfolio of US
Stocks, International
Stocks, Small Capitalization
Stocks, and some Bonds will significantly increase returns and reduce
volatility you may be surprised to learn, that recently the
stock funds are quite highly correlated.
For those holding
stocks long term and worried about
volatility in the market, adding a bit
of VXX could help to hedge your
portfolio.
Bonds help lower the
volatility of a
portfolio while
stocks provide the upside performance.
For the most part, lump sum investing outperformed dollar cost averaging two out
of every three times, «even when results are adjusted for the higher
volatility of a
stock / bond
portfolio versus cash investments.»
Data for the last 60 years demonstrates that adding small
stocks, foreign
stocks, real estate and emerging - market
stocks to a
portfolio generally reduces the level
of volatility or risk, and at the same time increases the
portfolio's return.
Going against the grain
of popular belief, Mr Buffett sees
volatility and «old world»
stocks as boons and frowns upon an over-diversified
portfolio and excessive trading.
But, many analysts think you should use a mixture
of growth
stocks with value
stocks and other types in your
portfolio, just to make sure you avoid the excess
volatility (how much a
stock's price goes up or down over a period
of time) that comes with some growth
stocks.
Smart investors always seek to balance the
volatility of the
stocks in their
portfolio with a few well chosen bonds.
Many investors use bonds to reduce the
volatility of an all -
stock portfolio.
In our toy example with the goal
of constructing a low
volatility equity
portfolio, our chosen allocation policy will be to weight the 30 DJIA
stocks according to the ex-ante minimum variance
portfolio, and rebalance the
portfolio at the end
of each month.
For instance if your retirement relies solely on a
stock portfolio, then market
volatility likely is much more
of a risk than a situation where your retirement will be supported by income from several different vehicles with varying degrees
of correlation to market ups and downs.
As you can see below, our toy example
of a DJIA
stock portfolio was able to achieve lower annualised
volatility of 11.74 % compared to the DIA ETF
of 13.05 %.
«We pay no heed to the day - to - day
volatility of our
portfolio, and actually prefer the prices
of our
stocks drop and drop until our
portfolios are full up.»
Their analysis involves (1) estimating the factor characteristics
of each
stock in a broad index; (2) aggregating the characteristics across all
stocks in the index; and (3) matching aggregated characteristics to a mimicking
portfolio of five indexes representing value, size, quality, momentum and low
volatility styles, adjusted for estimated expense ratios.
«We are willing to endure a high degree
of stock price and
portfolio volatility because we believe it allows us to achieve a greater degree
of investment performance over the long term» Bill Ackman
Because
of volatility, it can take a lot
of time before you can guarantee that a
stock portfolio has grown.
Many investors have become familiar with the notion
of capturing historically rewarded factors, such as value, quality, or low
volatility, in their
stock portfolios.
The beta coefficient
of a
stock or
stock portfolio is the measure
of volatility of a -LSB-...]
Nonetheless, for those who don't mind the
volatility, I think gold
stocks are an intriguing addition to a
portfolio, though I would cap exposure at 2 %
of a
portfolio's total value.
In the absence
of access to leverage, investors may overpay for high
volatility stocks in an attempt to increase risk in their
portfolios, potentially leading lower
volatility stocks to become more attractively valued and outperform in the future.
After all, if
portfolios consisting
of low -
volatility stocks perform so well over the long term, doesn't this mean that the low -
volatility stocks must themselves generally perform well?
Diversifying its assets across multiple asset categories, including dividend - paying
stocks, bonds and convertible securities, may help reduce the fund's overall
portfolio volatility and improve chances
of earning more consistent returns over the long term.
Bonds, then, give you 2 potential benefits when you hold them as part
of your
portfolio: They give you a stream
of income, and they offset some
of the
volatility you might see from owning
stocks.
After simplification, the eventual result will be (math available on request): What this means is that the actual
volatility of the individual
stock is equal to the square
of its beta times the actual
volatility of the market
portfolio, plus the firm - specific variance.
By holding roughly equal amounts
of Canadian, U.S. and international
stocks, you can reduce the
volatility of your
portfolio without lowering your expected return.
From 1980 through 2017, a theoretical index
portfolio with equal amounts
of Canadian bonds, Canadian
stocks, U.S.
stocks and international
stocks returned 10.3 % annually with a standard deviation — a measure
of volatility —
of 11.6 %.
A
portfolio can be constructed
of bonds and
stocks so that its
volatility is anywhere on the spectrum between pure bonds and pure equities as discussed above.
All they know is that bonds do tend to reduce the
volatility of your
portfolio, since they tend to rise when
stock prices fall.
His concentration on value
stocks in good companies with low
volatility gives him the bones
of a
portfolio which will do well and won't jump around too much.
The legendary Ben Graham, in his 1949 book The Intelligent Investor, argued that a
portfolio of just 10 to 30
stocks provides adequate diversification, and that adding more
stocks produces only a marginal reduction in
volatility (while increasing both transaction costs and the time needed to monitor the
portfolio).
Because the pattern
of risk and returns from bonds and short - term investments is different from
stock market returns, adding them to a
portfolio of stocks may mitigate some
of the overall
volatility you experience.
Historically, a broadly diversified
portfolio of stocks (now easily obtained with one or two index mutual funds) has usually provided much higher long - term returns than bonds or cash, but with inevitable, dramatic ups and downs (
volatility) that can be very stressful.
Though the periodic payments do add to overall
portfolio performance, dividend - yielding
stocks are not immune from the
volatility of the overall market.
Their appeal is not only their non-correlation (or even negative correlation) with other parts
of the
portfolio, but their surprisingly low
volatility: as a group, managed futures tend to have lower standard deviation and smaller drawdowns than both
stocks and commodities.
Folio's Conservative
portfolio consists
of 30 large - company
stocks with below - average
volatility.
For some investors, bonds may be attractive for predictable income, and as an offset to the
volatility of stocks in your
portfolio.