Not exact matches
Schneider coauthored a 1971 article in the journal Science about atmospheric
aerosols — floating particles of soil dust,
volcanic ash, and human -
made pollutants.
Aerosols are both natural and man -
made, and include windblown desert dust, sea salt, smoke from fires, sulfurous particles from
volcanic eruptions, and particles from fossil fuel combustion.
To the contrary, as there is an inverse correlation between low cloud cover and solar irradiation, and solar /
volcanic have influences in the stratosphere, non-excisting for CO2 or human
made aerosols.
Here a reaction on the main points about the natural (solar,
volcanic) vs. man -
made (GHGs,
aerosols) sensitivity: — If there was a larger temperature variation in the past millennium, the mathematical evidence is that an increase of one of the terms of the temperature trend equation must go at the cost of one or more other terms of the equation.
Thus to provide the clearest picture of the CO2 effect, we approximate the net future change of human -
made non-CO2 forcings as zero and we exclude future changes of natural climate forcings, such as solar irradiance and
volcanic aerosols.
Here a reaction on the main points about the natural (solar,
volcanic) vs. man -
made (GHGs,
aerosols) sensitivity: — If there was a larger temperature variation in the past millennium, the mathematical evidence is that an increase of one of the terms of the temperature trend equation must go at the cost of one or more other terms of the equation.
«On the other hand, we might assume that there has been some lower, but non-zero «background level» of
volcanic aerosols - let's arbitrarily
make it 2 on a scale of 10, for ease of discussion.
The observed temperature evolution can of course only be the result of all forcing factors combined (including solar variability,
volcanic eruptions, and man -
made aerosols)-- not CO2 alone.
We will now be able to measure and track Sun - induced space weather as well as global climactic trends in ozone levels,
aerosols, vegetation,
volcanic ash, and Earth reflectivity, all in high resolution; just the kind of data our civilization needs to
make informed cultural, political, and scientific decisions that affect our future.
Since
aerosols last much longer in the stratosphere than they do in the rainy troposphere, the amount of
aerosol - forming substance that would need to be injected into the stratosphere annually is far less than what would be needed to give a similar cooling effect in the troposphere, though so far as the stratospheric
aerosol burden goes, it would still be a bit like
making the Earth a permanently
volcanic planet (think of a Pinatubo or two a year, forever).
Skies polluted by
volcanic ash scatter sunlight more,
making sunsets show more red; similar results are seen with dust or man -
made aerosols.
Volcanic events and some types of human -
made pollution, both of which inject sunlight - reflecting
aerosols (i.e., tiny particles) into the atmosphere, lower temperature and are examples of forcings that drive decreases in temperature.
An additional
volcanic aerosol refinement that increases the global trend is
made.
Because
volcanic aerosols can reach the stratosphere, they hang around much longer than man -
made aerosols.
Since the last ~ 17 years is the only period with known low
volcanic forcing and since
aerosol forcing is one of the largest unknowns, that
makes the last 17 years the longest useful period of that type.
For the natural forcings Robock
made various runs using different solar forcings and two runs using different
volcanic aerosol numbers.
Turner's work, in particular, which often depicts brightly colored sunsets and emphasized natural light, can be used to roughly estimate
aerosol optical depth — that is, the amount of particles like dust,
volcanic ash, smoke and sea salts in the atmosphere — at the time the painting was
made.
And of course, had he
made such a comparison by presenting the data from previous years, it would have refuted and so prevented his conclusions, that
volcanic aerosols suppressed the warming.
That may well include increased or decreased natural dust (for natural or unnatural reasons), and definately
volcanic aerosols (note that this factor was increasingly negative in the 40's to 60's) along with man -
made aerosols.
[Response: As far as I can tell — if you compensate for the affects of the southern oscillation index,
volcanic aerosols, and solar variation (so you're looking at the man -
made component), then temperature change since about 1975 is approximately linear.