And yes, if there were no lack of additional
volcanic aerosols then the rebound would be delayed.
Not exact matches
Given the total irrelevance of
volcanic aerosols during the period in question, the only very modest effect of fossil fuel emissions and the many inconsistencies governing the data pertaining to solar irradiance, it seems clear that climate science has no meaningful explanation for the considerable warming trend we see in the earlier part of the 20th century — and if that's the case,
then there is no reason to assume that the warming we see in the latter part of that century could not also be due to either some as yet unknown natural force, or perhaps simply random drift.
If a lack of air conditioning can not warm a room,
then I fail to see how a lack of
volcanic aerosols can warm the Earth.
If the cooling from 1940 to 1975 was due (mainly) to
aerosols, I would expect
then that we would still be experiencing cooling, roughly equal to the 1960s, but certainly not warming faster than the pre-1940 era (when there was less
volcanic activity, more active sun etc).
He discusses CO2's impact on climate and
then aerosol's (both
volcanic and human) possible cooling and / or warming impacts.
«The forcings for ECHO - G are selected in advance by (1) choosing the strength and time series of solar irradiance variability; (2) choosing the strength and time series of
volcanic aerosol variability and converting this to a surrogate time series of solar irradiance reductions, which are
then added to (1); and (3) choosing the time series of greenhouse gas concentrations.
As for
aerosols, you seem to be under the illusion that the only thing that matters is
volcanic events, and even
then only that they happen.
If
aerosols from
volcanic eruption sometimes dim the stratosphere, when they do circulate back out
then we are left with dimmer surface albedo.
But
then there was a
volcanic eruption, and she reversed her prediction claiming that the
volcanic aerosols would soak up the moisture in the air or some such thing.
[Response: As far as I can tell — if you compensate for the affects of the southern oscillation index,
volcanic aerosols, and solar variation (so you're looking at the man - made component),
then temperature change since about 1975 is approximately linear.