Not exact matches
Using a 3D atmospheric model, the researchers separated the
effect of the chemicals
from those of weather and
volcanic emissions, which can also destroy ozone.
To determine whether declining pollutants deserve credit for the recovery, the researchers used a 3D atmospheric model to separate the
effects of the chemicals
from those of weather, which can affect ozone loss through winds and temperature, and
volcanic eruptions, which deplete ozone by pumping sulfate particles into the upper atmosphere.
The team also showed for the first time that this recovery has slowed somewhat at times, due to the
effects of
volcanic eruptions
from year to year.
One just included the effective influence on temperatures
from manmade forces (including greenhouse gases and aerosols, which tend to have a cooling
effect), while the second included both manmade and natural ones (including
volcanic activity and solar radiation).
«The researchers also calculated the likely
effect of remediation on the ozone layer, but found that ozone depletion would be short - lived and similar to that resulting
from natural processes such as large solar storms and
volcanic eruptions.»
Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) used multiple linear regression to quantify and remove the
effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and solar and
volcanic activity
from the surface and lower troposphere temperature data.
Perhaps in the future a large
volcanic eruption (VEI 5 - 6 or greater) may cause 1 - 2 °C swings in global temperatures as they rise further as we go
from enhanced greenhouse
effect to enhanced reductions in insolation
from thicker sulfuric acid vails.
Volcanic eruptions and impacts
from celestial bodies, like asteroids, have a near instantaneous
effect, but very few of these one - time events are of sufficient size to impact the global climate for more than a few years.
Jupiter's giant, spectacular polar aurorae are created by the
effects of the magnetic field of the planet combining with gases
from the
volcanic moon Io.
In Earth's past the trigger for these greenhouse gas emissions was often unusually massive
volcanic eruptions known as «Large Igneous Provinces,» with knock - on
effects that included huge releases of CO2 and methane
from organic - rich sediments.
The
effects can be dramatic and dangerous: landslides, earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions, yellow sandstorms blowing in
from China and extreme weather due to climate change.
Contains - Alphabet (topic word for each letter)- Comic Summary (read a story and summarise it in comic form)- Hand (research a volcano in history and pull out main facts)- Imagination (descriptive writing prompt)- One Sentence Only (summarise each paragraph in a chosen text)- Positive and Negative
effects (foldable sorting
effects of volcanoes)- Storyteller (narrative writing prompt)- Structure of a volcano (information sheet for students to create a volcano diagram)- Types of volcano (foldable that involves matching names, description and picture)-
Volcanic Eruptions Comprehension (information passage with questions)- Volcano cloze (information text with missing words about volcanoes)- Volcano explorer (gathering information
from interactive voclano website)- Volcano Vocabulary (foldable involving matching topic words to definitions)- Witness vs. Scientist (foldable involving sorting statements)
In the coastal village of Amed, 10 miles (16 km)
from Mount Agung, the
effects of the
volcanic rumblings on tourism are already being felt.
Graphically, Tiny Trax is superb in every detail
from slot car animations to incredibly realised tracks in both the foreground and background such as Paradise Adventures» shipwrecks, alongside Frozen Forgeways» Molten Ruins showcasing realistic particle
effects such as sparks rising
from magma as molten lava flows out of
volcanic rock as lava bubbles underneath the track surface which is all viewable through the centre of a loop the loop connecting to the start - finish straight.
There are tons of studies — ranging
from paleoclimate studies to studies of
volcanic effects, etc. that constrain climate response and which generally yield results consistent with the models.
So, by all means, attack me personally, change the subject, blow smoke, shift the goalposts, nitpick, do anything to divert
from the obvious fact that the widespread claim regarding the warming
effect of a lack of
volcanic activity is simply wrong.
It is to be noted here that there is no necessary contradiction between forecast expectations of (a) some renewed (or continuation of) slight cooling of world climate for a few decades to come, e.g.,
from volcanic or solar activity variations; (b) an abrupt warming due to the
effect of increasing carbon dioxide, lasting some centuries until fossil fuels are exhausted and a while thereafter; and this followed in turn by (c) a glaciation lasting (like the previous ones) for many thousands of years.»
A submarine landslide might release a Gigaton of carbon as methane (Archer, 2007), but the radiative
effect of that would be small, about equal in magnitude (but opposite in sign) to the radiative forcing
from a
volcanic eruption.
Do you know about, or can you refer me to someone who may know about, the climate
effects of the other Tambora - scale
volcanic eruption (VEI = 7) of the last millenium —
from Changbaishan (Baitoushan) on the China - NKorea border (42oN latitude) sometime between 960-1025 AD?
In other words, if we are after a cause (or causes) for the temperature increase during the period in question, the presence or absence of aerosols
from volcanic eruptions is beside the point, because they can not explain any increase in temperatures that occurred prior to any cooling
effect they might have had.
Victor, if an absence of
volcanic aerosols results
from their «dissipation» and this in turn results in a «rebound» as you say it does, is not such a «rebound» a «real
effect» resulting
from an «absence» (or more usually a partial absence) of
volcanic aerosols?
The MM was also a time of enhanced
volcanic activity, and the cooling
from this was probably comparable with the cooling due to solar
effects (an exact attribution is impossible given the uncertainties in both forcings).
«The researchers also calculated the likely
effect of remediation on the ozone layer, but found that ozone depletion would be short - lived and similar to that resulting
from natural processes such as large solar storms and
volcanic eruptions.»
First, for changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such as a change in incident solar radiation,
volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE radiative «forcings» (feedbacks, though in the context of measuring their radiative
effect, they can be described as having radiative forcings of x W / m2 per change in surface T), such as water vapor feedback, LW cloud feedback, and also, because GHE depends on the vertical temperature distribution, the lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric lapse rate, though changes in the position of the tropopause and changes in the stratospheric temperature could also be considered lapse - rate feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment takes some of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause with stratospheric adjustment will generally be different
from sensitivity to forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different
from forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
Technologies that prevent sunlight
from reaching Earth's surface could reduce average global temperatures within a few years, similar to the
effects of large
volcanic eruptions.
However, as to
effect in the antarctic, a better representation of
volcanic record is
from ice core.
For instance, the warming that began in the early 20th century (1925 - 1944) is consistent with natural variability of the climate system (including a generalized lack of significant
volcanic activity, which has a cooling
effect), solar forcing, and initial forcing
from greenhouse gases.
In this post, I divide the globe (60S - 60N) into two subsets and remove the linear
effects of ENSO and
volcanic eruptions
from GISS Land - Ocean Temperature Index data since 1982.
The only reasonable conclusion to be drawn
from the above is that CO2,
volcanic outbreaks and El Nino events have little or no
effect on the background temperature trends in stratosphere and troposphere because of the ability of the Earth system to change the height of the tropopause and the size and location of the permanent climate zones to change the speed of energy flow through the Earth system and thereby negate any such
effects.
Their causes range
from completely unpredictable events like
volcanic eruptions (which have mainly local
effects) to more regular phenomena such as «El Niño» (a warming of the surface waters of the tropical Pacific that occurs every three to five years, temporarily affecting weather world - wide).
Like Foster and Rahmstorf, Lean and Rind (2008) performed a multiple linear regression on the temperature data, and found that although
volcanic activity can account for about 10 % of the observed global warming
from 1979 to 2005, between 1889 and 2006
volcanic activity had a small net cooling
effect on global temperatures.
Volcanic activity was high during this period of history, and we know
from modern studies of volcanism that eruptions can have strong cooling
effects on the climate for several years after an eruption.
It takes a couple of years for most of the aerosols
from a large
volcanic eruption to settle out of the air, so their cooling
effect likewise lasts a couple of years.
The models currently assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable changes in the various input and output components can only occur
from external forcing agents such as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after
effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power output.
Here it is important to separate internal natural variability, which is basically ocean circulations
from natural variability in the forcing, such as solar and
volcanic effects.
«Here, it is sufficient to note that many of the 20CEN / A1B simulations neglect negative forcings arising
from stratospheric ozone depletion,
volcanic dust, and indirect aerosol
effects on clouds... It is likely that omission of these negative forcings contributes to the positive bias in the model average TLT trends in Figure 6F.
Led by Dr. James E. Hansen
from 1981 to 2013, research at GISS emphasized a broad study of global change, which is an interdisciplinary initiative addressing natural and man - made changes in our environment that occur on various time scales —
from one - time forcings such as
volcanic explosions, to seasonal / annual
effects such as El Niño, and on up to the millennia of ice ages — and that affect the habitability of our planet.
I consider it as very likely that the 20 year trends will still be statistically significant also in three, five or ten years
from now, unless there is some strong
volcanic explosion that blows a lot of reflecting aerosols in the stratosphere causing a temporary temperature dip, or some other cause the
effect of which is explainable within the framework of current knowledge about the climate system, but as event not really predictable.
From the paper: «The results also 1) reveal a significant level of coupling between ocean and land temperatures that remains even after the effects of ENSO and volcanic eruptions have been removed; 2) serve to highlight the improvements in the quality of the time series of global - mean land temperatures with the increase in the areal coverage of the station network from 1951 onward; and 3) yield a residual time series in which the signature of anthropogenically induced global warming is more prominent.&ra
From the paper: «The results also 1) reveal a significant level of coupling between ocean and land temperatures that remains even after the
effects of ENSO and
volcanic eruptions have been removed; 2) serve to highlight the improvements in the quality of the time series of global - mean land temperatures with the increase in the areal coverage of the station network
from 1951 onward; and 3) yield a residual time series in which the signature of anthropogenically induced global warming is more prominent.&ra
from 1951 onward; and 3) yield a residual time series in which the signature of anthropogenically induced global warming is more prominent.»
Aerosols
from volcanic eruptions do have a cooling
effect once they reach the stratosphere but the
effect of high wind speed in the upper atmosphere would rapidly disperse these, and any local
effects would be very slight.
Deepening the apparent mystery of total volcanogenic CO2 emission, there is no magic fingerprint with which to identify industrially produced CO2 as there is insufficient data to distinguish the
effects of
volcanic CO2
from fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere.
Natural variations in climate include the
effects of cycles such as El Niño, La Niña and other ocean cycles; the 11 - year sunspot cycle and other changes in energy
from the sun; and the
effects of
volcanic eruptions.
Instead of responding only to the cooler temperatures, the tree rings also included signals
from reduced light availability (
from the shading
effect of
volcanic aerosols) and the two
effects together produced a signal greater than what would have been produced by cooler temperatures alone.
The
effects on health statistics, can also be
from other mechanisms say
from volcanics where both extremal temps can prevail ie hot summers and cold winters such as laki where the airborne pollution was also a significant factor in both decreasing the availability of food (PAR) and respiratory ailments.
The planet's atmosphere was surely so vast and stable that outside forces, ranging
from human activity to
volcanic eruptions, could have no more than a local and temporary
effect.
There are mulltple approaches that try and filter out ENSO
effects, PDO, IPO,
volcanic, and even solar — taking both postive AND negative additions to forcings, to see what residual underlying long - term forcing
from anthropogenic sources might remain.
Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) used multiple linear regression to remove the
effects of solar and
volcanic activity
from the surface and lower troposphere temperature data.
Also, regarding subsea volacanic eruptions — a
volcanic eruption involves release of magma at several thousand degrees C plus superheated gases — when that hits cold sea water you are going to have a very violent and explosive change of form
from lquid water to steam combined with the release of dissolved gases (mostly CO2)-- I am not sure what laws of Chemistry and Physics you are looking at, but I would suggest that that those bubbles and heated gases and water will rise to to the surface very quickly and have a major local
effect on any nearby ice.
If he just removes
volcanic for the satellite period, then there is likely some residual
effect from prior to his selected start date which would influence his «adjusted» trend.
They range
from mimicking the
effects of large
volcanic eruptions by releasing sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, to deploying giant mirrors in space to deflect the sun's rays.