Sentences with phrase «volcanic forcing in»

If important, why wasn't volcanic forcing in the «Natural» portion of the diagrams?

Willis, AFAIK there is no deliberate kludge related to volcanic forcing in CMIP5 models.

Finally, I add an error standard deviation of 0.05 W / m ² for uncertainty in volcanic forcing in 1871 — 1880 and a further 0.05 W / m ² for uncertainty therein in 2002 — 2011, small though volcanic forcing was in both decades.

Thus the RCP scenarios assume the long - term average volcanic forcing in the future, and they hold it constant, which is reasonable because as you say we can't predict the next eruption.

You end up with NH ocean being 3C warmer than SH oceans plus «super recovery» from volcanic forcing in the NH, but that is only a fraction of the ocean area.

It has to do with the fact that there is an enhanced sensitivity to volcanic forcing in the Esper et al series, owing to its bias towards the summer seasonal and extratropical continental centers.

I have deliberately not included the volcanic forcing in either the observed or projected values since that is a random element — scenarios B and C didn't do badly since Pinatubo went off in 1991, rather than the assumed 1995 — but getting volcanic eruptions right is not the main point here.

The main difference between projections A and B appears to have been the projected volcanic forcings in ~ 1995 and ~ 2015.

Not exact matches

Was it rock grinding on rock, ice groaning over ice, or, perhaps, hot gases and liquid rock forcing their way through cracks in a volcanic complex?

One way is extrusion, in which magma erupts through volcanic craters and cracks in the Earth's surface; the other is intrusion, whereby magma forces itself between or through existing formations of rock, without reaching the surface.

The models, which factor in natural effects such as solar winds and volcanic eruptions, along with anthropogenic forcings like greenhouse gases and aerosols, match these precipitation variations accurately in trend and reasonably well in magnitude.

Professor Sybren said: «It can be excluded, however, that this hiatus period was solely caused by changes in atmospheric forcing, either due to volcanic eruptions, more aerosols emissions in Asia, or reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

The only variations are in the volcanic forcing files.

The simple question of whether the medieval period was warm or cold is not particularly interesting — given the uncertainty in the forcings (solar and volcanic) and climate sensitivity, any conceivable temperature anomaly (which remember is being measured in tenths of a degree) is unlikely to constrain anything.

Solar and volcanic activity are the main natural forcings included in the Huber and Knutti study.

Forcing caused by changes in the Sun's brightness, by dust in the atmosphere, or by volcanic aerosols can also be translated into radiative fForcing caused by changes in the Sun's brightness, by dust in the atmosphere, or by volcanic aerosols can also be translated into radiative forcingforcing.

Investigating the cause of 20th Century warming is properly done in detection and attribution studies, which analyze the various forcings (e.g., solar variations, greenhouse gases or volcanic activity) and the observed time and space patterns of climate change in detail.

2000, except that they used a large forcing for solar (10x) and volcanic (5x) in separate runs to see if the relative influence of both may need to be adjusted, as the Hadcm3 model possibly underestimates the — relative — weaker forcings.

I suppose it is possible that some other natural forcing not included in the solar variations and volcanic activity may have been incorporated into the anthropogenic side of their equation.

And finally, current theories based on greenhouse gas increases, changes in solar, volcanic, ozone, land use and aerosol forcing do a pretty good job of explaining the temperature changes over the 20th Century.

Therefore, the solar forcing combined with the anthropogenic CO2 forcing and other minor forcings (such as decreased volcanic activity) can account for the 0.4 °C warming in the early 20th century, with the solar forcing accounting for about 40 % of the total warming.

On top of that, there was a substantial El Nino early in the sequence and a La Nina following the volcanic eruption in 1965 which together with the very low trend in forcings may have tipped the temperature record negative.

They got 10 pages in Science, which is a lot, but in it they cover radiation balance, 1D and 3D modelling, climate sensitivity, the main feedbacks (water vapour, lapse rate, clouds, ice - and vegetation albedo); solar and volcanic forcing; the uncertainties of aerosol forcings; and ocean heat uptake.

[Response: «in the absence of other unknowns» — aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake, internal variability, underestimates of solar and volcanic forcing... — gavin]

Constraining ECS from the observed responses to individual volcanic eruptions is difficult because the response to short - term volcanic forcing is strongly nonlinear in ECS, yielding only slightly enhanced peak responses and substantially extended response times for very high sensitivities (Frame et al., 2005; Wigley et al., 2005a).

Santer et al in the PNAS paper also provide some additional tests in examining scenarios with much greater solar and volcanic forcings than observed in the real world.

The long timescales (even ignoring the «Earth system» responses like ice sheets and vegetation) are not easy to get at in the instrumental record or by studying «abrupt forcing» events like volcanic eruptions.

The uncertainty in the overall amplitude of the reconstruction of volcanic forcing is also important for quantifying the influence of volcanism on temperature reconstructions over longer periods, but is difficult to quantify and may be a substantial fraction of the best estimate (e.g., Hegerl et al., 2006a).

These phenomena — sun spots, a slightly different earth orbit, a decrease in volcanic activity — intermittently warmed the region through increased radiative forcing, and recently have been joined by a new force: greenhouse gases.

Many of the international airlines which service Bali have been forced to cancel flights into and out of Bali due to the high level of volcanic ash in the skies over and surrounding Bali.

A product of erosion and volcanic forces, the views from in amongst these knobbly pillars extend over the town of Graaff - Reinet and the plains of the Camdeboo.

Welcome to Iceland, a country whose culture is deeply rooted in ancient heritage and where powerful volcanic forces have forged a rugged but beautiful land.

The eruptions have caused volcanic ash rain in nearby villages, forcing residents to flee to the southern part of Bali.

Mount Agung erupted in late November, spreading volcanic ash to nearby areas and forcing I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport and Lombok International Airports to close for several days.

Hundreds of passengers are facing travel disruption after a volcanic eruption in Indonesia sent ash clouds over the region, forcing airlines to cancel flights to and from Northern Australia.

The response of that model to volcanic forcings, the last ice age, changes in orbital parameters etc. are all «out - of - sample» tests that are not fixed by adjusting parameters.

The forcing from 1900 to mid-century was mostly natural... mostly solar, a bit of lack - of - volcanic, maybe some black carbon in the arctic.

In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossiblIn addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossiblin partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.

Volcanic activity is indicated by Stratospheric Aerosol forcing in the link below.

Finally, look up Rahmstorf and Foster 2011 — it shows that if you account for El Nino, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar forcing, the warming has continued apace.

Investigating the cause of 20th Century warming is properly done in detection and attribution studies, which analyze the various forcings (e.g., solar variations, greenhouse gases or volcanic activity) and the observed time and space patterns of climate change in detail.

One way to interpret this is that anthropogenic forcings are a significant cause of AMO variability (in addition to solar, ENSO, volcanic and anything else that affects climate).

You can show quite easily that without water - vapour feedbacks (for instance), you can not get a good match to volcanic forcings and responses in the real world (Soden et al, 2005), or to ENSO, or to the long term trends.

I suppose it is possible that some other natural forcing not included in the solar variations and volcanic activity may have been incorporated into the anthropogenic side of their equation.

The model results (which are based on driving various climate models with estimated solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic radiative forcing changes over this timeframe) are, by in large, remarkably consistent with the reconstructions, taking into account the statistical uncertainties.

While the suspended dust can temporarily block sunlight, the dominant effect in volcanic forcing is the sulphur, which combines with water to form sulphuric acid droplets.

The interest in these records is for what they can tell us about natural variability, spatial patterns of change, responses to solar or volcanic forcing, teleconnections etc. — it's all interesting and useful, but it is nothing like as important as the outside interest shown in these studies might suggest.

The 1988 GISS climate model included volcanic forcing as well as a prediction of what would happen in the future if a large tropical volcano went boom.

gavin: You can show quite easily that without water - vapour feedbacks (for instance), you can not get a good match to volcanic forcings and responses in the real world (Soden et al, 2005)...

In fact, there is reasonably compelling evidence that changes in drought in the western U.S. over the past millennium may, in large part, reflect the forced response of ENSO to past volcanic and solar radiative forcinIn fact, there is reasonably compelling evidence that changes in drought in the western U.S. over the past millennium may, in large part, reflect the forced response of ENSO to past volcanic and solar radiative forcinin drought in the western U.S. over the past millennium may, in large part, reflect the forced response of ENSO to past volcanic and solar radiative forcinin the western U.S. over the past millennium may, in large part, reflect the forced response of ENSO to past volcanic and solar radiative forcinin large part, reflect the forced response of ENSO to past volcanic and solar radiative forcing.