To identify the effects of human activity on temperature, we simulate the model (estimation sample 1960 — 1998) with post 1998 values of solar insolation, SOI, and
volcanic sulfates held at their 1998 level while allowing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulfur emissions to evolve as observed.
Conversely,
holding greenhouse gas concentrations and sulfur emissions at their 1998 values and allowing solar insolation, SOI, and
volcanic sulfates to evolve as observed generates a forecast that is consistent with the observed pattern of temperature change.