When people say how they would
vote in a general election tomorrow, are they imagining a an election with Michael Howard as the alternate Prime Minister, or David Cameron or David Davis?
BPIX don't give the detailed voting intention figures, but at present Labour are 7 points ahead of the Conservatives (whatever that may mean — we don't know how people are answering the standard voting intention — when they say how they'd
vote in a General Election tomorrow are they already taking into account who they expect to be the next leader?
Not exact matches
My survey of 1,000 residents of the constituency, completed on Thursday, found that when asked which party they would
vote for
in a
general election tomorrow, 42 % named the Conservatives, 28 % Labour and 19 % UKIP: a 14 - point Tory lead.
Clearly even if the Lib Dem
vote is holding up better
in the Lib Dem Tory marginals — that doesn» mean the Lib Dems would win these seats were a
general election held
tomorrow.
Last year, the Lib Dem
vote in Derby North was 28 %, but this poll finds only 10.7 % support for them
in a
general election tomorrow.
Most disturbingly for the Government, Survation found that
in Derby North, only 23 % of people would
vote Conservative
in a
general election tomorrow, compared to 51 % for Labour.
In this set of seats there is no consistent pattern in the difference between the standard voting intention question («if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?»
In this set of seats there is no consistent pattern
in the difference between the standard voting intention question («if there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?»
in the difference between the standard
voting intention question («if there were a
general election tomorrow, which party would you
vote for?»)
In this poll the adjustment has reduced the Conservative lead by 3 points; the unadjusted figures were CON 39 %, LAB 31 %, LDEM 21 %, but ICM has estimated that many of the people who said «don't know» would
vote Labour if there was really a
general election tomorrow, cutting the lead to 5 points.
The polls to look out for are not last night's, but
tomorrow when we discover if people have changed who they intend to
vote for
in the
general election.