Sentences with phrase «vote intention polls»

Importantly for the party this means that GB vote intention polls are understating the increase in Labour support in England and so their potential to take seats from the Conservatives.

The net effects of this trend are reflected in the vote intention polls, but geographical implications for this year's local elections are not part of my model.

Since the general election was called Labour have gone up in the GB vote intention polls while the Liberal Democrats and especially UKIP have dropped.

This pattern is likely to be repeated at the next general election; in almost every voting intention poll, women express a lower propensity than men to vote, sometimes significantly so.

This measure is worth looking at in more detail as voting intention polls led many forecasters astray in 2015.

UKIP now regularly pips the Liberal Democrats to third place in national voting intention polls.

Between now and the general election, which if we believe Alan Johnson is at most eight months away, there will probably be more than 100 voting intention polls bandied about, so I thought it would be helpful to offer Total Politics readers some basic pointers to help pick their way through this particular thicket.

We still haven't seen a post-election Populus voting intention poll (though to answer Mike Smithson's question here, I understand they are still doing them, they are just having a quiet period following the election), but Lord Ashcroft has commissioned them to do some polling in marginal seats, with some interesting findings.

To an extent voting intention polls are once again an irrelevance anyway following Sir Menzies Campbell's resignation as Lib Dem leader.

In the constituencies surveyed, Labour lead the voting intention poll, at 38 %, three point ahead of the Tories at 35 % with the Lib Dems in third at 21 %.

MRP clearly has a future, although don't expect to see the standard newspaper voting intention poll using a sample of 7000 any time soon.

Meanwhile the latest voting intention polls from the four companies who've polled so far this week are below:

This morning's daily voting intention poll for the Sun shows figures of Conservative 40 %, Labour 39 %, Liberal Democrat 11 %.

As with voting intention polls, if you look at oppositions that went on to win the next election, they won mid-term local elections hands down.

Labour were ahead in voting intention throughout most of the last Parliament, but were behind on economic competence and leadership, which are normally seen as important drivers of voting intention (the ultimate explanation of this apparent paradox was, of course, that the voting intention polls were wrong).

I haven't paid much attention to the voting intention polls over recent months since without a Leader of the Opposition party politics are in a bit of a limbo.

We have only one GB voting intention poll today, but from a brand new pollster (later on we'll have the regular daily poll from YouGov and the ComRes / Mail / ITV poll).

YouGov also asked how people would vote in a re-run between Boris and Ken — 49 % would vote Boris, 33 % Ken (respondents were not offered the chance of voting for other candidates, so this was not a genuine voting intention polls by any means, but since the London electoral system does redistribute votes between the top two candidates it offers a rough guide).

Like the Sunday Telegraph poll, ICM's Guardian poll also asked a theoretical voting intention poll with Gordon Brown as Labour leader.

Looking at the detailed breakdown of support for the smaller parties, the biggest beneficiary seems to be UKIP, who are now regularly reaching up to 5 % in our voting intention polls.

YouGov are carrying out genuine daily voting intention polls throughout the conference season.

There haven't been any voting intention polls since the party conference yet, but if the boost in people's perceptions of Tony Blair is in any way echoed in voting intentions Labour should see a healthy conference boost.

The voting intention polls paint a fairy consistent pattern this month — the boost in Conservative support that saw them rise to the high thirties seems to have been consolidated.

Hence in addition to the normal reports on new polls, I'm also going to re-introduce something I used to do back in 2004 — a monthly round up of voting intention polls.

All of this suggests Labour should enjoy some healthy leads in national voting intention polls and the way the vote was distributed in the UK at the last election, that should translate into an easy Labour majority if repeated at an election....

Thus far it hasn't been entirely clear whether this is reflected in the voting intention polls.

Not exact matches

Small - business owners, with their strong voting records and firm intentions of hitting the polls in November, represent an untapped but potentially game - changing force in this presidential race, particularly if overall voter turnout comes in low.

In the latest poll of British voter intentions, 52 % of respondents said they would vote to leave the EU - up from 27 % in June!

Indeed, it wasn't that the polls were wrong about the UK election; results were close, if you took people's voting intentions at face value.

campaign pooled data analysis entails examining the vote intentions, expectations, and preferences of our respondents and relating these to the information conveyed by the polls at the time respondents were interviewed

Standard opinion polls do not include under - 18s, and little is known about their voting intentions.

In doing so, we did find a statistically significant positive correlation between performance and voting intention as measured by Public Policy Polling data around the same time.

And this is exactly the configuration in the vote - intention polls.

This meant looking at polling data on voting intentions in key marginal seats, votes in the most recent local elections and the resources each party is likely to have to spend on campaigning in the area.

The graph below shows the BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from local elections together with general election vote intention from the polls for the month before each round of local elections.

Our online polling is also being adjusted in a comparable manner to our telephone polling, where supporters of the Green Party or UKIP have their secondary voting intention reallocated to other parties where no Green or UKIP candidate is on their ballot paper or undecided refused or would not vote.

The graph below shows the latest What Scotland Thinks / ScotCen Poll of Polls of voting intentions in Scotland for the 2015 UK general election and how it has evolved over time.

Much like yesterday's Panelbase poll in The Sunday Times today's poll suggests there might have been some narrowing of the SNP lead in voting intentions for May's Westminster election.

Its standing in polls of vote intentions for Scottish Parliament elections averaged just 16 %, while its reading on vote intentions for a Westminster election were, at 14 %, even slightly worse.

One of the major talking points has been Lord Ashcroft's recent polls of 16 Scottish constituencies, which attracted special attention because unlike the other polling companies it drilled down to constituencies rather than just voting intentions as a whole.

The latest poll of voting intentions for Thursday's election, conducted by Survation for the Daily Record, is of particular interest for two reasons.

Last week a poll from Survation suggested that the huff and puff of the campaign, including not least two televised leader debates that took place either side of the Easter weekend, had not made much difference to the balance of voting intentions for next month's Scottish Parliament election.

Because the polling stayed broadly positive, I assumed this was having very little impact on voting intentions.

These polls typically do not show much sign of switching between general and constituency specific vote intention, except in Liberal Democrat seats where it is unclear whether the switching is tactical or due to the personal popularity of the sitting MP.

This morning's Times carried the result of the latest YouGov poll of voting intentions in Scotland, while this evening Channel 4 News released further results from the same poll.

Since our previous poll, we have made a change to our headline voting intention.

While the inquiry could not rule out a modest late swing towards the Conservatives, initial claims that the polling errors were due to «shy Tories» (respondents who deliberately misreported their intentions) or «lazy Labour» (Labour voters who said they'd vote but ultimately didn't) did not stand up to scrutiny.

In itself the results of the poll (the first poll of voting intentions in Scotland that ICM has conducted for many years) are not particularly remarkable.

Regular users of this site during the referendum will remember that one of its more popular features was a «Poll of Polls» of voting intentions in the referendum.

The Murdoch press empire decided to rain on the Scottish Labour leadership parade on Saturday by releasing a YouGov poll in The Sun and The Times showing the party is 20 points behind the SNP in voting intentions for next Westminster's election — an outcome that could see it lose the vast bulk of its Commons seats.