Sentences with phrase «vote intention polls do»

Not exact matches

Standard opinion polls do not include under - 18s, and little is known about their voting intentions.

In doing so, we did find a statistically significant positive correlation between performance and voting intention as measured by Public Policy Polling data around the same time.

These polls typically do not show much sign of switching between general and constituency specific vote intention, except in Liberal Democrat seats where it is unclear whether the switching is tactical or due to the personal popularity of the sitting MP.

While the inquiry could not rule out a modest late swing towards the Conservatives, initial claims that the polling errors were due to «shy Tories» (respondents who deliberately misreported their intentions) or «lazy Labour» (Labour voters who said they'd vote but ultimately didn't) did not stand up to scrutiny.

We still haven't seen a post-election Populus voting intention poll (though to answer Mike Smithson's question here, I understand they are still doing them, they are just having a quiet period following the election), but Lord Ashcroft has commissioned them to do some polling in marginal seats, with some interesting findings.

ICM also asked a voting intention question asking how people would vote assuming that Gordon Brown was Labour leader — like YouGov's poll earlier this week this showed Labour doing worse under Brown than under Blair; with Brown as leader voting intention would be CON 40 %, LAB 37 %, LD 18 %.

There is a Populus poll in The Times tomorrow which does not appear to cover voting intention, but rather asks the public what they expect they outcome of the next election to be.

MRP clearly has a future, although don't expect to see the standard newspaper voting intention poll using a sample of 7000 any time soon.

This is not necessarily a bad thing — certainly I have grave doubts about polls done in Lib Dem constituencies that just ask a standard voting intention question.

YouGov did the fieldwork for two academic election surveys (the British Election Study and the SCMS) as well as their daily polling, and all three used different question ordering (daily polling asked voting intention first, SCMS after a couple of questions, the BES after a bank of questions on important issues, which party is more trusted and party leaders) so will allow testing of the effect of «priming questions».

Anyway, leaving such speculation behind the bottom line is that, while Clarke again comes out top, the poll doesn't tell us a huge amount about the respective popularities of Clarke and Davis, when they are put aside the huge impact that Gordon Brown will make on voting intentions once he takes over.

[166] Morris claimed that telephone polls that immediately asked for voting intentions tended to get a high «Don't know» or anti-government reaction, whereas longer telephone conversations conducted by private polls that collected other information such as views on the leaders» performances placed voters in a much better mode to give their true voting intentions.

Note also that, judging from the tables, ComRes have switched over to prompting for UKIP in their main voting intention question in this poll — as with their last national poll, it does not seem to have had a major effect (UPDATE — I think this is because ComRes have changed turnout weightings, so that there is a tighter turnout filter for the Greens and UKIP than for the main parties).

YouGov also asked how people would vote in a re-run between Boris and Ken — 49 % would vote Boris, 33 % Ken (respondents were not offered the chance of voting for other candidates, so this was not a genuine voting intention polls by any means, but since the London electoral system does redistribute votes between the top two candidates it offers a rough guide).

This is likely to be because best Prime Minister questions are strongly influenced by party allegiance, and the questions seem to have been asked as part of a standard ICM omnibus poll, which doesn't weight by past vote unless there are voting intention questions.

The ICM poll for the Guardian also included a voting intention question with Brown as Labour leader, which showed the now normal pattern of the Conservatives doing better against Labour with Brown instead of Blair.

Hence in addition to the normal reports on new polls, I'm also going to re-introduce something I used to do back in 2004 — a monthly round up of voting intention polls.

Since Cameron became leader, every time a hypothetical poll about voting intention with Gordon Brown as leader has been asked, it has shown either the parties neck and neck or a Tory lead, and the majority have shown Brown doing worse than Blair.

The Communicate research poll in the Independent was much shorter, and just did a forced choice question between Labour and Conservative under David Cameron and David Davis (why a forced choice rather than a voting intention I don't know).

As I've said before, all reputable pollsters will put voting intention questions at the start of a poll to make sure other questions don't skew the answers.

However a lot has been made of the fact that while both polls had an effort to take account of people's personal and tactical voting behaviour in their own constituency, they did so in different ways — Ashcroft asks a two stage question, asking people their national preference and then how they will vote thinking about the candidates and parties in their own constituency; ICM asked people the voting intention question including the names of the candidates standing in Sheffield Hallam.