UKIP voters are also more certain about
their voting intentions with those saying they «don't know» who they will vote for dropping from 15.27 % in 2009 to 7.83 % in 2014.
This is the only poll of the campaign that would usually be regarded as a «final poll», that is one that has been conducted sufficiently closely to polling day that its accuracy can reasonably be assessed by comparing
its voting intentions with the tally of votes that actually emerges from the ballot boxes.
ComRes's monthly poll for the Independent has topline
voting intentions with changes from last month of CON 38 % -LRB--3), LAB 31 % (+1), LDEM 17 % (nc).
The usual caveats apply about it being just one poll, but it shows Labour support perking up in Wales since Jeremy Corbyn's election — Westminster
voting intentions with changes from last month are CON 26 % -LRB--2), LAB 42 % (+5), LDEM 5 % (+1), Plaid 10 % -LRB--2), UKIP 16 % (+1).
A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has
voting intentions with changes from their last poll of CON 45 % (+2), LAB 32 % (nc), LDEM 14 % (nc).
Topline
voting intentions with changes from YouGov's poll last month are.
In the Con - v - Lab marginals,
voting intention with changes from the general election were CON 35 % -LRB--4), LAB 44 % (+8), LDEM 12 % -LRB--5).
Since Cameron became leader, every time a hypothetical poll about
voting intention with Gordon Brown as leader has been asked, it has shown either the parties neck and neck or a Tory lead, and the majority have shown Brown doing worse than Blair.
Not exact matches
Small - business owners,
with their strong
voting records and firm
intentions of hitting the polls in November, represent an untapped but potentially game - changing force in this presidential race, particularly if overall voter turnout comes in low.
Three Democrat senators declared their
intention to break ranks
with other Senate Democrats on the Foreign Relations Committee, ahead of the
vote.
God reviews our true
intentions minute by minute, we
vote in leaders
with no or little morals as long as our stocks go up.
The meeting should be a private one, but the MP could be told quite clearly that afterwards a clear statement will be issued giving his, or her, views about homosexual marriage
with the MP's
voting intentions.
The graphs below show how changes in the shares of council seats won by each party are strongly correlated
with changes in general election
vote intentions.
On the same day his sale of the Buffalo Sabres to Pennsylvania oil and gas magnate Terry Pegula becomes official, Paychex founder erstwhile gubernatorial hopeful Tom Golisano is announcing his
intention to try to do away
with the Electoral College as part of the National Popular
Vote campaign.
The graph below shows the BBC Projected National Share of the
vote (PNS) from local elections together
with general election
vote intention from the polls for the month before each round of local elections.
On European election
voting intentions, Labour (32 per cent) lead Ukip (21 per cent)
with the Conservatives and the Greens tied on 16 per cent each, and the LibDems on 8 per cent.
Projecting the changes in the Westminster
vote intention on to seats
with the regression method (final two columns) suggests the Conservatives will emerge (for the first time in a long time)
with a substantial lead in both
votes and seats.
In three of the seats I found UKIP ahead by up to six points on the standard
voting intention question, and they were tied
with Labour in Dudley.
The forecasting model works by combining the number of seats won by parties in the previous election
with vote intentions data from polls conducted six months prior to the election — in this case the data is from November 2014.
I've heard that tests were given in bad faith
with the real
intention being to exclude African - Americans from
voting in the United States.
We still haven't seen a post-election Populus
voting intention poll (though to answer Mike Smithson's question here, I understand they are still doing them, they are just having a quiet period following the election), but Lord Ashcroft has commissioned them to do some polling in marginal seats,
with some interesting findings.
A new ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday has topline
voting intention figures —
with changes from the last ComRes poll — of CON 46 % (nc), LAB 25 % (+1), LDEM 16 % -LRB--2).
ICM also asked a
voting intention question asking how people would
vote assuming that Gordon Brown was Labour leader — like YouGov's poll earlier this week this showed Labour doing worse under Brown than under Blair;
with Brown as leader
voting intention would be CON 40 %, LAB 37 %, LD 18 %.
The actual
voting intention figures,
with don't knows and won't
votes excluded, is CON 49 %, LAB 20 %, LDEM 21 %, Others 10 % — representing a swing of 10.9 % from the last general election.
Despite that fantastic result at the general election, in Oldham we started
with no
voting intention records and there was always the danger that starting on paper in third place would result in a classic squeeze, which is why...
Westminister
voting intentions in Wales,
with changes from the previous ICM Welsh poll in February, are CON 23 % -LRB--1), LAB 38 % -LRB--4), LDEM 7 % -LRB--2), Plaid 13 % -LRB--1), UKIP 14 % (+7).
The first is that normal
voting intention questions do not include prompting by the party leaders names, so realistically you should only compare the results of a question asking «how would you
vote with Milliband in charge»
with one saying «how would you
vote with Brown in charge».
Not confimed yet, but apparently a new YouGov poll for the Standard has topline
voting intentions,
with changes from their last poll, of JOHNSON 47 % -LRB--2), LIVINGSTONE 37 % (nc), PADDICK 10 % -LRB--2), Others 5 %.
Previously, Essential polled weekly,
with a rolling two - week sample used for
voting intentions.
Cameron's eight percentage point lead among «enthusiastic voters» just before the May 2015 election seen in Figure 2 contrasts
with the much less clear - cut picture given by «
voting intention» alone (Figure 3, below).
In conversations
with a few attendees they spoke nicely about Malliotakis, but didn't express an
intention to
vote for her over Dietl in November.
But Miliband has made clear his
intention to press ahead
with the reforms — now all but signed and sealed, and
voted for by a large majority of Labour's executive.
The polling company Tamedia asked 20,000 people about their
voting intentions on the next referendum day (which includes 3 other issues along
with basic income).
In one poll on
voting intention last week the Tory lead was trimmed to 7 %
with Labour up two to 32 %, the Conservatives on 39 % and the Liberal Democrats on 18 %, leaving the Tories 25 seats short of a Commons» majority.
In the constituencies surveyed, Labour lead the
voting intention poll, at 38 %, three point ahead of the Tories at 35 %
with the Lib Dems in third at 21 %.
While the city's request has been winding its way through the regulatory pipeline for a number of years, the governor's office has given no indication regarding his
intentions in terms of whether or not, as one of eight Great Lake states governors
with veto power over the proposal, he will
vote to approve the unprecedented water diversion.
Mr Cameron announced his
intention to resign as prime minister on 24 June, after finding himself on the losing side of the EU referendum,
with the UK
voting by 52 % to 48 % in favour of leaving.
Ongoing
vote intention figures put the Conservatives on 40 % compared to Labour
with 31 %.
The figures do not correlate
with national
voting intentions, where the «No» campaign is more popular.
YouGov analysed the
voting intentions of individuals
with the 130 most common first names among the 46,000 people it's polled in the past two months.
A couple of decades ago
voting intention was heavily correlated
with class.
A new ComRes poll for Tuesday's Independent has headline
voting intention figures,
with changes from last month, of CON 40 % -LRB--1), LAB 27 % -LRB--6), LDEM 18 % (+2) and Others 14 %.
On the Sunday night before the confidence
vote I telephoned the chief whip's office
with the
intention of leaving a message which offered my - unashamedly republican - assistance in securing Fitt's
vote.
At the weekend Nick Clegg publicly declared his
intention to
vote for the # 9,000 tuition fees ceiling, but softened this
with more details of a # 150m national scholarship fund to help the most needy students, including by waiving their first two years of fees.
More to point, what is there that strongly correlates
with voting intention and that we have solid figures for that we can weight towards?
As
with voting intention polls, if you look at oppositions that went on to win the next election, they won mid-term local elections hands down.
Topline
voting intentions are REMAIN 42 %, LEAVE 40 % — so wholly in line
with ICM's polling before the deal.
With a week to go until the Scottish Parliament elections Ipsos MORI have published their latest Scottish
voting intention figures.
In the standard
voting intention we found Labour on 41 %,
with the Conservatives on 36 % and the Lib Dems on 9 %.
It is polling as the third largest political force post-Brexit
with 15 % of
voting intentions.