Despite the 10 - point Labour lead in voting intention the majority
of voters in these seats said either that they were satisfied with David Cameron's performance as Prime Minister (29 %) or that they were dissatisfied but would rather he were PM than Ed Miliband (29 %).
He said the shift involved a Tory tendency to win in marginal seats and a greater distribution of
Labour voters in seats where it was pipped by third parties, adding: «It is these last two things which has turned a system that once looked as if it was to the advantage of Labour to the Tories» advantage, and there is a boundary review to come.
It occurs that I should probably source that - Observer, 23 Dec 2007, column by Denis MacShane entitled «An open letter to Nick Clegg»: «Before the 2001 election, I urged Labour
voters in seats where Lib - Dem candidates were best placed to beat off Conservatives to vote tactically.
Nearly one third (32 %) of
voters in these seats said they were satisfied with the job David Cameron was doing as PM, with a further three in ten saying they were dissatisfied but preferred him to Ed Miliband.
Don't know too much about the demographics but maybe
Tory voters in this seat are slowly drifting to Richmond and / or Twickenham.
Its research shows that if Labour managed to contact 30 % of
voters in a seat in 2010, its share of the vote rose by over 5 %.
Plaid's strength in Ynys Mon is its grassroots grounding; a solid core of activists who have been talking to
voters in the seat even when they're not died - in - the - wool nationalists.
Ukip sensed a chance at victory among the disaffected
Labour voters in the seat, which in various guises has been Labour for the past 50 years, ever since housing estates were built to relocate thousands of poor residents from central Manchester back in the early 1960s.
As for whether the by - election should be happening at all, three quarters
of voters in the seat (including a majority of Labour voters) think Phil Woolas «did make false statements about his opponents and this probably affected the result», so rerunning the election was the right decision.
Voters in these seats were evenly divided as to whether the coalition represents «the beginning of a new type of politics», though small majorities thought so on the Conservative - Liberal Democrat battleground.
Fewer than one in ten of
all voters in these seats (9 %) said they were potentially open to voting for any of the four parties.
This way, people still have a single MP who represents their constituency, and all MPs can say they were supported by more than half
the voters in their seat.
Schools Secretary Ed Balls has suggested that
voters in some seats might want to «lend» their votes to the Liberal Democrats to keep the Tories out.
The Conservatives will decide on their candidate this week from a shortlist of two women after an open primary, open to
all voters in the seat.
If two had gone to the Lib Dems then they would have won the seat — and yet the SNP will represent all of
the voters in that seat until the next election.
The results - including a nationwide survey of 1,500
voters in all seats - are being released exclusively on ConservativeHome today.