In the latest poll of
British voter intentions, 52 % of respondents said they would vote to leave the EU - up from 27 % in June!
That suggested positive voter reaction to individual Budget measures and failed to predict the very big boost to Tory fortunes that two
conventional voter intention polls found within days.
It's important to distinguish between late swing (where voters actually change their minds) and polling error (
where voters intentions are measured inaccurately).
The steel crisis and Brussels terror attacks were not rated as having a significant influence
on voter intentions.
The three main parties are on red alert as newcomers shake up
voter intentions.
Some areas have references that suggest analytical heft, such as one for updating a store of «
voter intentions.»