These elections measure
voter preference for the various candidates and help determine which delegates will be sent to the national nominating convention.
That's a 24 point lead for Democratic congressional candidates in the so called «generic ballot» question, which asks
voters their preference for the U.S. House without naming the candidates running in each district.
Not exact matches
The Cruz algorithm was then applied to what the campaign calls an «enhanced
voter file,» which can contain as many as 50,000 data points gathered from voting records, popular websites and consumer information such as magazine subscriptions, car ownership and
preferences for food and clothing.
There are many obvious reasons
for this: to the extent that income is an important factor in determining political
preferences, the Median Voter Theorem predicts that
voters in the middle of the income distribution will determine who wins elections.
According to polling data, a significantly larger fraction of African - American and Hispanic
voters have right - leaning policy
preferences when it comes to size of government issues than voted
for Romney.
The winner - take - all and first - past - the - post systems are degenerate cases of this; each
voter is asked only
for their first
preference, and the candidate who is the first
preference of a majority or plurality of
voters wins.)
Specifically, some white
voters give inaccurate polling responses
for fear that, by stating their true
preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation.
Even a
preference for Clinton over Trump was not a guarantee that a
voter would turn out
for Clinton on election day.
Instead of casting a ballot
for a single candidate, the
voter ranks all of the candidates by
preference.
In the London election, roughly equal numbers of those voting
for other candidates turned out to have a Labour or Tory
preference - so those 250,000
voters got to count in the final outcome - though the result was unaffected by transfers.
The alternative vote allows
voters to rank candidates
for office by
preference.
They will need to be able to reel off
voters»
preferences for entertainment and leisure time and, conversely, the demographic breakdown of audiences
for every major media platform going.
Its critics contend that some
voters find the mechanisms behind STV difficult to understand, but this does not make it more difficult
for voters to «rank the list of candidates in order of
preference» on an STV ballot paper (see Voting).
This system is employed to elect single office - holders
for a whole regional or local authority area (spanning many constituencies or wards, and sometimes called «at large» elections) while taking account of the
preferences of as many
voters as possible.
This profoundly granular information about individual
voters and their
preferences helped the campaign focus persuasion work on the persuadable and GOTV on the
voters likely to vote
for their guy.
At least one of the candidates is feeling out potential Republican
voters, as a recent poll asked about name recognition and
preference for Massey, Faulkner, Ulrich and Catsimatidis.
They asked their sample of
voters whom they would vote
for if they could cast a second
preference as well.
Instant runoff voting, also known as ranked - choice voting, allows
voters to rank primary candidates in order of
preference so that if one candidate does not cross the required threshold
for victory, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated and the votes are redistributed based on the second choice selected by
voters who had selected the eliminated candidate first, and so on until a winner emerges.
In a poll conducted by Zeplowitz and Associates, 60 percent of
voters in the congressional district said they would vote
for Donovan, while 21 percent showed a
preference for Grimm.
It's also true that the LibDems are the top second
preference for Tory
voters.
Although it is not regarded as truly proportional by campaigners
for electoral reform, AV is favoured by some because it maintains the constituency link, ensures elected MPs have the support of at least 50 per cent of
voters and allows supporters of minority parties to express opinion through their first vote while giving their second
preference to a mainstream party.
Dan talks about giving equal right to access the ballot
for the roughly 20 % of the
voters with no party
preference.
Things are complicated because individual
voters do not just have a general party -
preference vote that will decide this overall make up of the parliament, but also vote
for a personal representative to represent their local constituency.
Miliband,
for example, it was reported, bequeathed South Shields a
voter contact rate (the percentage of people in the constituency
for whom the party has a record of voting
preference) as low as 0.2 % — or roughly 100 people.
For single - member executive offices, LaVenia added, instant runoff voting where voters rank their choices in order of preference is a system that eliminates the incentives for lesser evil voting while insuring that the most preferred candidate is elect
For single - member executive offices, LaVenia added, instant runoff voting where
voters rank their choices in order of
preference is a system that eliminates the incentives
for lesser evil voting while insuring that the most preferred candidate is elect
for lesser evil voting while insuring that the most preferred candidate is elected.
Take
for example the Greens: according to a recent YouGov poll
for Channel 4 whose results we set out here, 30 % of Labour
voters and 24 % of Lib Dems have a second
preference for the Greens.
The problem with predicted outcomes of AV based on,
for example, successive YouGov polls looking at
voters preferences is that they really only tell us about short term effects on the relative position of the big established parties.
The best indication that this is the case is the fact that, in the YouGov poll
for the IPPR,
for example, 96 % of Tory and 97 % of Labour
voters are assumed to stick with their current parties as first
preference.
Labour
voters do not, of course, necessarily reflect the
preferences of the Labour members and supporters who get a vote, though the previous YouGov polling of Labour party members also suggested a large lead
for Corbyn.
The voting
preferences of four million Scottish
voters - and the implications of how they will cast their votes
for the rest of the UK, has been dominating the election campaign.
Where preferential voting is used
for the election of an assembly or council, parties and candidates often advise their supporters on their lower
preferences, especially in Australia where a
voter must rank all candidates to cast a valid ballot.
It's worth taking a close look at the crosstabs, which include information on favorability, support
for President Obama and
voters»
preferences in the gubernatorial horserace — all of which will undoubtedly play a role in the general elections.
However, if
voters cast both
preferences for eliminated candidates, these are not «eligible» and do not influence the result.
In a full preferential voting method,
voters are required to mark a
preference for every candidate standing.
This can lead to «
preference deals», a form of pre-election bargaining, in which smaller parties agree to direct their
voters in return
for support from the winning party on issues critical to the small party.
The District 37 race was viewed by both parties as a winnable race despite its
preference for Democrats in recent elections and Democrats» two - to - one advantage in registered
voters.
Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report has always cautioned me to be weary of opinion polls which are conducted over bank holiday weekends but we have a poll from ITV's London Tonight, the Evening Standard and LBC radio which has Boris 4 % ahead of Ken Livingstone after
voters» second
preferences have been accounted
for.
Voters can vote
for the candidate they prefer, rather than
for the candidate they think is most likely to keep out the one they least prefer, in the knowledge that second
preference votes will count if his or her preferred candidate is eliminated before the last round of counting.
Yet Labour are fearful of Goldsmith's ability to reach out to Lib Dem and Green
voters because of his opposition to a third runway at Heathrow, especially after former Green mayoral candidate Baroness Jenny Jones appeared to endorse a second
preference for Goldsmith earlier this year.
Although there are differences of
preference, and the hung parliament would represent a lack of mandate
for any particular party manifesto as a whole, it seems plausible that the ambiguity of both centre - left major party manifestos has been designed so that a compromise hammered out in coalition forming can claim manifesto legitimacy (the same measure being supported by
voters of both parties).
The photo editing app is named IchooseJM, and will allow
voters to self - edit images declaring their
preference for candidate John Mahama.
When it comes to intensity of support, 54 % of likely Democratic
voters with a candidate
preference for comptroller strongly support their choice of candidate.
But consider whether this is more or less likely in the context of AV: there would have been more second
preference votes that had the potential to be transferred from both the Lib Dem candidate and the Tory candidate than from the BNP candidate, so Woolas would surely have been far more likely to try to appeal to moderate
voters than to try to appeal to those considering voting
for the BNP had AV been used instead of FPTP.
Table: Intensity of Support
for Comptroller Candidates (NYC Democratic Likely
Voters with a Candidate
Preference)
Table: Intensity of Support
for Republican U.S. Senate Candidates in Kentucky (Kentucky Likely Republican Primary
Voters with a Candidate
Preference)
Table: Intensity of Support
for Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Democratic
Voters with a Candidate
Preference)
Lists can be «closed» or «open»; open lists allow
voters to indicate individual candidate
preferences and vote
for independent candidates.
Two caricatured extreme positions of political strategy, held by no - one, are these: a) that
voter preferences are entirely fixed, and that the art of political campaigning is to choose where within the spectrum of fixed
voter opinions to place oneself to provide the best chance of victory whilst achieving the maximum of one's desired programme; b) that
voters can be persuaded of anything if one has truth on one's side and argues
for it with sufficient conviction.
Surely the honourable thing would be
for the Lib Dems to leave the coalition in line with clear
voter preferences?
In Mark Ferguson's excellent expose of «community campaigning» in South Shields under David Miliband's watch, he reveals that the
voter contact rate (the percentage of people in the constituency
for whom the party has a record of voting
preference) in the constituency was as low as 0.2 %.