Much of their support is from the Conservative heartlands, and even the vast majority of those workers who intend to vote for them have not defected from Labour: only 17 % of UKIP
voters voted Labour in 2010 (the same amount who voted Liberal - Democrat), compared with 45 % who voted for the Conservatives.
For example, one 2010 study after the last election found that 59 % of Daily Mirror
voters voted Labour, and just 16 % voted Conservative.
A lot of Labour
voters voted Labour despite some of what had happened in New Labour years.
If 38 % of
voters vote Labour, I would define them as being «hard left», if it was the case for Lib Dem, I'd define them as «centre - left», and for Tories in their current form as «centre»
Not exact matches
Even if
Labour gave a free
vote, which is unlikely, the pressure from
Labour constituency activists (not
Labour voters) would force most
Labour MPs to
vote for the change: just a few people of principle will hold out.
The link between
Labour and many of its traditional
voters — who defied the party leadership to
vote Leave — was also fractured, perhaps permanently.
This is particularly in evidence at the moment and we typically find that 10 % fewer
Labour than Conservative
voters are certain to
vote.
All of this means that Cameron finds himself in a fairly tricky position, having to rely on mobilising Remain
votes from large numbers of people who
voted against him last May while hoping that the leader of the
Labour Party will actually stand up and make a direct and unequivocal plea for
voters to keep Britain in the EU.
I think you can avoid this with (i) a primary election day for all parties where
voters have to choose which party to
vote for OR (ii) a
Labour - only primary election day where people who want to
vote have to register first.
She challenged analysis that talked up
Labour success at the election pointing out that the Conservatives piled on
voters in many northern seats that had
voted Leave, among older
voters and among the working class.
So
Labour need to get to the disaffected
voters who maybe
voted Labour in the past and not anymore; they also need to get to those who are not even interested in politics.
Scottish Tories currently campaigning for local government elections on May 4th tell stories about encountering long - standing
Labour voters in local authority areas not exactly known for being friendly to Conservatives and who now declare their intention to
vote for «Ruth» and the Tories.
Furthermore,
Labour's extraordinary abandonment of its core
voters as it takes on the mantle of the politically correct new left means
Labour votes across the North of England are up for grabs.
Labour made a net gain of just two from the Conservatives, whilst the Liberal Democrats collapsed in suburban England and their south - western heartlands as the centre - left
vote fragmented and centre - right
voters moved over to the Tories.
This analysis confirms what we might have anticipated from the evidence of the polls — local authorities appear to contain more Leave
voters if there was a large
vote for UKIP there in the 2014 European elections, if there was a small
vote for parties of the «left» (
Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists and Greens) on the same occasion, and in places with relatively low proportions of graduates, young people, and people from an ethnic minority background.
It essentially became pointless with the introduction of FPTP for all seats, before that many seats used Block Voting and there were alliance slates in places (in some, Liberals, Nat Libs and Cons all put up one candidate each to
LAbour's two; evidence was a lot of Lib
voters supported
Labour with second
vote, but Tory and Nat Lib
voters split all over the place).
Were an individual Gloucestershire
voter given up to seven
votes to distribute as s / he saw fit, it is of course impossible to know whether this would lead to seven Conservative MPs returned (as was the case in the 2015 election), or a mixture of parties (in 2005 the seats were split three Conservative, two
Labour and two Liberal Democrat).
«Today I am setting out a positive agenda for
Labour voters - reasons why
Labour voters should
vote Remain and the patriotic case for remaining in Europe.
The overwhelming majority of «no»
voters who
voted Labour in 2010 also
voted Labour in 2015, as the British Election Study shows.
It occurs that I should probably source that - Observer, 23 Dec 2007, column by Denis MacShane entitled «An open letter to Nick Clegg»: «Before the 2001 election, I urged
Labour voters in seats where Lib - Dem candidates were best placed to beat off Conservatives to
vote tactically.
The Tories may have polled two million more
votes than
Labour, but at least half of that difference can be attributed to differential turnouts, and most of the rest to missing
voters.
However, there was absolutely no mention of an entire street of
Labour -
voting ethnic minority
voters not being able to speak English either in her Guardian report or elsewere.
Labour is enjoying its strongest polling since Gordon Brown's honeymoon, as a new survey shows Conservative
voters are growing less likely to
vote at the next election.
In contrast, of the 65 % of 2010
Labour voters who
voted NO in the referendum, 75 % stayed with
Labour in 2015, while only 13 %
voted SNP.
This group of
voters became dissatisfied with the Westminster government during the Thatcher era, felt forgotten by New
Labour, and
voted Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) en - masse in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election.
Most of whose
votes were anti
Labour / Conservative Politics, so many are based on lies, and there is no line whatsoever to excluding the the
voter from the governing process.
So you could argue that the current system is actually biased against
Labour, and therefore PR will actually disadvantage
Labour even more unless rates of
voter registration are improved and compulsory
voting introduced.
«Most of the Muslim
voters I've talked to will
vote for Sadiq, but they haven't warmed to him as a person,» one inner London
Labour councillor who has been pounding the streets for him tells me.
As with the 35 % of 2010
Labour voters in Scotland who
voted «yes» to independence, the
Labour Party currently offers little to the 27 - 33 % of 2015
Labour voters in Britain who want to leave the EU.
It would have been extremely difficult for
Labour to tell those
voters that their concerns were being disregarded or their
votes ignored.
For middle class
voters to be backing the
Labour manifesto isn't a total shock - it protected 95 % of people from tax rises whilst spending big on schools and the NHS - but for them to
vote for Corbyn is a much bigger deal.
We found some tentative evidence to suggest
Labour voters had been less likely to actually
vote than predicted but, even if this was the case, the effect would have been very modest.
While a majority of
Labour voters backed Remain in the referendum, swathes of seats in the north and Midlands
voted emphatically for Brexit.
Also, many
voters - including Leave
voters - reacted against austerity last year by
voting for
Labour, but the Tories have done little to change course on this and may now decide they don't need to.
People who disagree with the coalition (some Lib Dem
voters) swear that they will
vote for
Labour at the next election.
Between a quarter and a third of
Labour voters voted Yes in the referendum.
Over a third of
Labour voters in 2015, where it went down to heavy defeat, said they would not
vote for the party under him.
The Survation poll commissioned by Unite union found the Lib Dems are on just 23 % behind
Labour on 33 % in the seat, when
voters were asked about their constituency
vote.
The British Election Study survey evidence suggests that Scottish
Labour MPs will not be saved by incumbency effects or tactical
voting, so the party will primarily need to attract a significant number of their former
voters back from the SNP.
It's true that
Labour does plan to make substantial cuts and there is a risk of losing
votes to the Greens, although once again Bennett's performance was unimpressive and unlikely to appeal to mainstream
voters.
One of the key patterns in last year's general election results was a tendency for those who
voted Remain to swing more to
Labour than those who
voted Leave, while the Conservatives lost ground amongst Remain
voters while advancing amongst their Leave counterparts.
Former
Labour voters converted to the Yes cause account for practically all of the drop in the Scottish
Labour vote.
The 2010
Labour voters who
voted Yes and now intend to
vote SNP are noticeably different from other 2010
Labour voters in their responses to a variety of BES questions, but they particularly stand out in two principle respects.
The Scottish
Labour leader Kezia Dugdale has made what she hopes is a major speech to win back lost
voters and make her party relevant in the constitutional debate that has followed the Brexit
vote in the EU referendum.
How many Conservative
voters in these constituencies will consider lending their
votes to UKIP having seen that
Labour can be beaten locally for the first time in decades?
Anti-EU
labour voters who vote Leave likely to switch permanently to UKIP after referendum if Labour backs Ca
labour voters who
vote Leave likely to switch permanently to UKIP after referendum if
Labour backs Ca
Labour backs Cameron.
The challenge for
Labour is that most splitting occurs between ideologically adjacent parties, and because less partisan
Labour voters are more likely than Conservatives to split their
vote.
And how does its view compare with that of swing
voters, who supported
Labour in previous elections but did not
vote for Gordon Brown?
A further 10 % of all
voters are
Labour Considerers, who would not
vote Labour tomorrow, but may do so in future.
And if it plays well to
Labour voters also, that's probably Susan Kramer's best shot — she needs to squeeze the
Labour vote down to the bone and deeper if she's going to hang on in there.