The Ukip vote there was up 13.4 %, providing 7,951
votes in a seat where just 422 decided it.
In the south London seat of Tooting, Sadiq Khan only increased his lead by 300
votes in a seat where a much stronger result was expected.
Not exact matches
This represented a significant improvement from the last election
in 2004,
where the Party (led at the time by Premier Ralph Klein) won 62
seats and 47 percent of the
vote.
State Sen. Joseph Robach, a Democrat - turned - Republican, will not run for the congressional
seat once held by late Rep. Louise Slaughter, saying he believes he can have the «greatest impact» if he stays put
in the Senate,
where his party holds a tenuous one -
vote majority.
It occurs that I should probably source that - Observer, 23 Dec 2007, column by Denis MacShane entitled «An open letter to Nick Clegg»: «Before the 2001 election, I urged Labour voters
in seats where Lib - Dem candidates were best placed to beat off Conservatives to
vote tactically.
Scotland's Big Voice aims to persuade people they need to
vote for a party other than the one they support
in seats where doing so could blunt the nationalist threat.
The group has around 2,000 supporters on Facebook and says it is planning to begin door - knocking
in seats where it thinks tactical
voting could make a difference.
Goodwin analysed Labour constituencies with the lowest majorities
where over 50 %
voted Leave
in the EU referendum, and
where Ukip are already
in second place, or a close third, to come up with his list of 20 target
seats.
«Ukip is getting itself now into a position
in some of the marginals
where it is
in a serious position to win a
seat in parliament and not just to split the
vote.»
An election
where most
seats are won by narrow majorities would result
in most of the elected (on both sides) having only negligible
voting power.
Significant numbers of Labour supporters may be willing to
vote tactically for the Lib Dems
in seats where the Conservatives are the second largest party, the poll found.
It's not clear if the Democrats will pick up any of these
seats, but they have a shot
in one race
where their candidate is up by 33
votes (I will do an analysis of this race
in a future post, but now my gut says the Republicans will hold the
seat because the Democrat closed the gap late).
This could be undertaken
in a formal coalition or an informal arrangement known as confidence and supply,
where a smaller party agrees to back the larger partner
in crucial
votes in return for policies but does not take ministerial
seats.
As Anthony Wells points out, it is somewhat inevitable that Labour should be doing worse
where they started stronger because there are some places
where they didn't have 15 points to lose, but it might also be partly because Ashcroft only polled
in Labour
seats where the Yes
vote was relatively strong
in the independence referendum.
The Liberal Democrats»
vote has fallen by half
in constituencies
where Labour are their main challengers, according to my latest round of polling
in marginal
seats.
He added: «Obviously, I am disappointed at any places
where we lost a bit of ground, but if you look at the overall picture, Labour gained a lot of
seats across the whole country; we gained a lot of
votes in places we never had those
votes before.»
They were undone, however, by a collapse
in the Liberal Democrat
vote which meant the party lost more
seats to Labour
where Labour was the second - placed candidate than they gained directly from the Lib Dems
where they were the challengers.
Under first - past - the - post, they have fared less strongly
in general elections, typically recording around one per cent of the UK - wide
vote (although a slightly higher average
in the
seats they contest);
in 2010, the Greens won 0.96 per cent of the
vote (1.81 per cent
in the
seats where they put up a candidate), and returned an MP to the House of Commons for the first time, as Caroline Lucas wrested Brighton Pavilion from Labour.
This system is designed to avoid a situation
where a party receives a large share of the
votes in an area but doesn't actually get many
seats (e.g. coming a close second
in every constituency but not winning any).
In Lewisham,
where we took our highest number of
votes, it is believed that Labour will put forward an all - female BAME shortlist to contest Heidi Alexander's
seat.
These polls typically do not show much sign of switching between general and constituency specific
vote intention, except
in Liberal Democrat
seats where it is unclear whether the switching is tactical or due to the personal popularity of the sitting MP.
UKIP are not fielding candidates
in 255
seats, including many
where they won thousands of
votes in 2015 (often more than the margin between the first and second - placed parties).
In terms of the electoral law — well, it's FPTP, so you're going to have a lot of councils
where the winning party won an overwhelming majority of
seats on less than 50 percent of the
vote.
The first set of
seats are won
in a traditional first - past - the - post election
in local areas,
where the candidate with more
votes than anybody else wins.
I recently wrote to David Cameron outlining our intention to contest the 30 most marginal Conservative
seats in 2015,
where majorities
in the 2010 general election ranged between 54 and 1,692
votes.
The Conservatives» remarkable success
in converting coalition into majority government is down to two factors: this was the first governing party to increase its
vote share after a full term
in office for more than a century and it succeeded
in concentrating that
vote increase
in the
seats where it counted.
The support of Lib Dem and Green voters could be crucial to Lewis's hopes of retaining his
seat in a city
where the Remain
vote was 56.2 %.
I decided to look primarily at Labour
seats — including some with colossal majorities —
in areas which
voted yes to independence, or
where the result was very close (more...)
Even if the Conservatives pick up most of the
seats UKIP lose, a potentially bigger question is
where the former UKIP
vote goes
in places
where they did well last time but did not win.
Some voters may also hear a patronising message to the effect that they are too dim to understand the consequences of their
vote — and many live
in seats where UKIP present the only prospect of removing a sitting Labour MP.
Some are
voting tactically
in seats where it is a two horse race, others are looking for a new electoral home after the betrayal of Nick Clegg
in entering a coalition with the Tories.
But Labour too lost
votes and
seats,
in a campaign
where the party expected to capitalise on mistrust of the Westminster coalition.
Labour's Kate Hoey heads a new list of 20
seats where constituents
voted to stay
in the EU but their representatives are Brexit supporters.
A Liberal Democrat defeat,
in a
seat where they trailed Labour by only 103
votes last May, would inevitably increase the pressure on Mr Clegg from the doubters
in his party, which is used to winning by - elections rather than losing them.
Although 3 of the 7 Ukip council
seats in a havering were took from former Labour councillors, and 5 of those
seats would be described as working class areas, the other two were above middle class areas
where the average price of a house is 650,000 ′, If anything
in havering Ukips
vote destroyed he 4,000 majorities of some Tory councillors resulting
in them winning with 350
votes
Now they'll have to raise even more money to keep control of the largest town
in the county,
where Mr. Lesko's
seat currently gives them a one -
vote majority.
But
in those
seats where it came second
in the by - election (as UKIP has done
in Eastleigh), it went on to lose almost half its
vote share at the next general election.
But if they're wise enough to
vote Liberal Democrat at the next local elections
in Hull, or for the Conservatives
in any
seat where we are well - placed to defeat Labour, then they will have a council that is fulfilling its statutory duty.
Solihull was
in the past regarded as a solid Tory monolith — a similar
seat to Sutton Coldfield on the other side of Birmingham
where the Tory
vote could be weighted rather than counted.
In Second place in the 2015 City Council Race (where two seats are up for grabs) was Council Candidate, Andre Wallace who received 20 % of the vote with 2,226 vote
In Second place
in the 2015 City Council Race (where two seats are up for grabs) was Council Candidate, Andre Wallace who received 20 % of the vote with 2,226 vote
in the 2015 City Council Race (
where two
seats are up for grabs) was Council Candidate, Andre Wallace who received 20 % of the
vote with 2,226
votes.
I don't put much store
in opinion polls, but if true it would only indicate roughly what you would expect to happen at this point
in the parliament - 32 % isn't that much lower than Labour got
in the 2005 General Election and all it would suggest is that the Liberal Democrats are having a reversal - tactical
voting could see them holding onto many of their current
seats, indeed it is even possible that if they got 17 % of the
vote that if it focused
in an area that they could actually end up with more
seats,
where the switches
in support are occuring is crucial - if they are focused then if the Conservative Party were to get 39 % then it might still result
in them getting fewer
seats than Labour or
in extremis winning a 150
seat majority or so?
The best result at the constituency, or electoral area, level for Labour
in the 2014 Local Elections came
in Athy,
where Labour won 27.0 % of the first preference
votes and took two of the six
seats in that electoral area.
It does not do Oakeshott, or his ideas of a progressive alliance, much good if Liberal Democrat supporters do not
vote Labour
in the
seats where he has donated money to Labour, or vice-versa.
And because our archaic
voting system tends towards the creation of safe
seats, there are a lot of places
where incumbents stay
in position for a long time.
BME voters are more likely to live
in safe Labour
seats where there may not be an active Conservative Party and statistically they are over-represented
in lower socio - economic groups, so you would expect them to be more likely to
vote Labour.
The party did not appear to lose any
seats due to the Windrush crisis, but Brexit weighed heavily, with the Liberal Democrats gaining Richmond,
in south - west London,
where 69 % had
voted to remain
in the EU.
Obviously this site could have the opposite effect
in safe
seats such as Knowsley
where there
voting power is roughly 100x weaker than the average UK voter and hence could lead people not to
vote.
In many states where the following positions are elected offices, voters elected state executive branch offices (including Lieutenant Governors (though some will be voted for on the same ticket as the gubernatorial nominee), Secretary of state, state Treasurer, state Auditor, state Attorney General, state Superintendent of Education, Commissioners of Insurance, Agriculture or, Labor, etc.) and state judicial branch offices (seats on state Supreme Courts and, in some states, state appellate courts
In many states
where the following positions are elected offices, voters elected state executive branch offices (including Lieutenant Governors (though some will be
voted for on the same ticket as the gubernatorial nominee), Secretary of state, state Treasurer, state Auditor, state Attorney General, state Superintendent of Education, Commissioners of Insurance, Agriculture or, Labor, etc.) and state judicial branch offices (
seats on state Supreme Courts and,
in some states, state appellate courts
in some states, state appellate courts).
He's recognised that the opportunities now are against Labour,
in seats where the Cons are third place and the voters just as fed up with Brown as anywhere else, and looking for someone else to
vote for.
She added that there were clear marginal
seats where her party would be a «driving force» and a candidate could «take that
vote and ultimately be an MP representing UKIP
in the House of Commons».