This morning's daily
voting intention poll for the Sun shows figures of Conservative 40 %, Labour 39 %, Liberal Democrat 11 %.
Not exact matches
The graph below shows the BBC Projected National Share of the
vote (PNS) from local elections together with general election
vote intention from the
polls for the month before each round of local elections.
The graph below shows the latest What Scotland Thinks / ScotCen
Poll of
Polls of
voting intentions in Scotland
for the 2015 UK general election and how it has evolved over time.
Much like yesterday's Panelbase
poll in The Sunday Times today's
poll suggests there might have been some narrowing of the SNP lead in
voting intentions for May's Westminster election.
Its standing in
polls of
vote intentions for Scottish Parliament elections averaged just 16 %, while its reading on
vote intentions for a Westminster election were, at 14 %, even slightly worse.
The latest
poll of
voting intentions for Thursday's election, conducted by Survation
for the Daily Record, is of particular interest
for two reasons.
Last week a
poll from Survation suggested that the huff and puff of the campaign, including not least two televised leader debates that took place either side of the Easter weekend, had not made much difference to the balance of
voting intentions for next month's Scottish Parliament election.
The net effects of this trend are reflected in the
vote intention polls, but geographical implications
for this year's local elections are not part of my model.
In itself the results of the
poll (the first
poll of
voting intentions in Scotland that ICM has conducted
for many years) are not particularly remarkable.
The Murdoch press empire decided to rain on the Scottish Labour leadership parade on Saturday by releasing a YouGov
poll in The Sun and The Times showing the party is 20 points behind the SNP in
voting intentions for next Westminster's election — an outcome that could see it lose the vast bulk of its Commons seats.
The
poll's figures
for general election
voting intentions are not as bad but still not good: although the headline figures are Con 31 %, Lab 36 %, LD 9 %, UKIP 15 %, of those who
voted Labour in 2010, 9 % are said to be intending to
vote UKIP.
It showed the average share of the
vote for Yes and No recorded by the last six
polls of referendum
voting intentions.
«
For the first time in a
poll on
voting intentions in an election of a national character, the NF is clearly ahead,» an Ifop spokesperson said.
An ICM
poll for the Sunday Telegraph of
voting intentions in a general election put Labour on 22 points, 18 behind the Conservatives, who are on 40 points, and three behind the Liberal Democrats on 25.
ComRes's monthly
poll for the Independent has topline
voting intentions with changes from last month of CON 38 % -LRB--3), LAB 31 % (+1), LDEM 17 % (nc).
However, I'm always slightly wary of constituency
polls in Liberal Democrat held seats — the effect of incumbency and tactical
voting is far higher
for Lib Dem MPs, and when you ask a generic
voting intention I think many people give their national preference, rather than how they would actually
vote in their own constituency.
Tonight's weekly YouGov
poll for the Sunday Times has topline
voting intention figures of CON 38 %, LAB 41 %, LDEM 11 %.
Since the Scottish referendum we've had Scottish
polls from MORI, Panelbase, YouGov and Survation and they've been consistent in showing large leads
for the SNP over Labour in Westminster
voting intentions.
A new YouGov
poll for ITV London has topline
voting intentions for the London mayoral election of Livingstone 44 % -LRB--1), Johnson 40 % -LRB--4), Paddick 8 % (+1).
Not confimed yet, but apparently a new YouGov
poll for the Standard has topline
voting intentions, with changes from their last
poll, of JOHNSON 47 % -LRB--2), LIVINGSTONE 37 % (nc), PADDICK 10 % -LRB--2), Others 5 %.
Previously, Essential
polled weekly, with a rolling two - week sample used
for voting intentions.
In a YouGov
poll for the Sunday Times published on August 22, UKIP received 14 % in
voting intentions, almost twice as much as the Liberal Democrats.
Failure to control
for non-response will result in «phantom swings» —
polls bouncing because of changes in sample composition despite no change in individual
voting intentions.
There was better news
for Labour south of the border at 5 pm as a new ComRes
poll of
voting intentions in Tory - held marginals put Labour 3 % ahead.
A new ComRes
poll for Tuesday's Independent has headline
voting intention figures, with changes from last month, of CON 40 % -LRB--1), LAB 27 % -LRB--6), LDEM 18 % (+2) and Others 14 %.
Lord Ashcroft used the two stage
voting intention question
for the constituency
poll, first asking people a generic
voting intention question and then asking people to consider their own constituency and the candidates likely to stand there in an attempt to squeeze out tactical or incumbency effects.
Our new
poll also asked once again about
voting intentions for the National Assembly.
YouGov did the fieldwork
for two academic election surveys (the British Election Study and the SCMS) as well as their daily
polling, and all three used different question ordering (daily
polling asked
voting intention first, SCMS after a couple of questions, the BES after a bank of questions on important issues, which party is more trusted and party leaders) so will allow testing of the effect of «priming questions».
A separate ICM
poll for the Sun on Sunday gives the Conservatives a 10 % lead over Labour on
voting intentions.
In two of the seats
polled, Thanet South and Thurrock, UKIP were ahead in
voting intentions, which will be enormous help
for them in convincing voters they are a viable general election
vote in the local area.
Our latest
voting intention figures in our daily
polling for the Sun have the Conservatives on 37 %, Labour on 42 % and the Liberal Democrats... (Comments: 0)
The latest
voting intention figures in our daily
polling for the Sun have topline figures of Conservative 35 %, Labour 43 %, Liberal Democrat 10 %.
[166] Morris claimed that telephone
polls that immediately asked
for voting intentions tended to get a high «Don't know» or anti-government reaction, whereas longer telephone conversations conducted by private
polls that collected other information such as views on the leaders» performances placed voters in a much better mode to give their true
voting intentions.
Today's
voting intention figures
for our daily
poll for the Sun newspaper are CON 41 %, LAB 39 %, LDEM 11 %.
Importantly
for the party this means that GB
vote intention polls are understating the increase in Labour support in England and so their potential to take seats from the Conservatives.
A YouGov
poll for the Daily Telegraph shows the SNP ahead of Labour in
voting intentions for a UK general election
for the first time in the party's history.
Following the TNS
poll earlier this week that showed the SNP catching Labour in Holyrood
voting intentions, there is a new YouGov
poll for the Scotsman that shows them ahead in constituency
voting intention.
In Greece, Syriza has been around
for longer, and now leads the opinion
polls, attracting 30 % of
voting intentions.
Note also that, judging from the tables, ComRes have switched over to prompting
for UKIP in their main
voting intention question in this
poll — as with their last national
poll, it does not seem to have had a major effect (UPDATE — I think this is because ComRes have changed turnout weightings, so that there is a tighter turnout filter
for the Greens and UKIP than
for the main parties).
ComRes have published a new
poll of
voting intentions in LD - Con seats in the South West
for ITV.
One recent opinion
for YouGov / Times
poll on
voting intentions forecast a 21 - point lead
for the Conservatives.
Our latest
voting intention figures in our daily
polling for the Sun have the Conservatives on 37 %, Labour on 42 % and the Liberal Democrats on 9 %.
The latest
voting intention figures from our daily
poll for the Sun have the Conservatives on 37 %, Labour on 43 % and the Liberal Democrats... (Comments: 0)
The latest
voting intention figures in our daily
polls for the Sun have the Conservatives on 39 %, Labour on 44 % and the Liberal Democrats... (Comments: 0)
YouGov also asked how people would
vote in a re-run between Boris and Ken — 49 % would
vote Boris, 33 % Ken (respondents were not offered the chance of
voting for other candidates, so this was not a genuine
voting intention polls by any means, but since the London electoral system does redistribute
votes between the top two candidates it offers a rough guide).
Secondly there is a ComRes
poll of Londoners, the first I can recall seeing since Brian Paddick was selected as the Lib Dem candidate (and, therefore, the first to have a
voting intention question with a proper candidate names
for all parties, rather than featuring «a Lib Dem candidate»).
This morning's
voting intention figures
for the daily YouGov / Sun
poll are Conservatives 39 %, Labour 41 %, Liberal Democrats 10 %.
Still,
for those getting rather bored with the
voting intention figures, we can look ahead to several potentially significant events — many commentators have suggested Gordon Brown is putting great weight in the G20 summit this week to give his premiership a boost, beyond that is the budget, which could work either way, and past that we have the local and european elections, which often lead to realignments in the national opinion
polls.
Looking at the detailed breakdown of support
for the smaller parties, the biggest beneficiary seems to be UKIP, who are now regularly reaching up to 5 % in our
voting intention polls.
A
poll for tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph will, ConservativeHome understands, have solidly good news
for David Cameron - on personal ratings and headline
voting intentions.